Well, just very quickly, w- what is the difference between a pharma stock and a biotech stock? What's the, what's the demarcator there?

You know, the big pharma stocks are the, like, big, you know, scaled global companies.

They're no longer really good at innovating.

They're really good at acquiring companies, and this is really important, right? And then you've got, like, smaller and medium-sized biotechs.

They're, like, maybe they got one really important drug.

Maybe they have a platform, like Moderna.

We can talk about that later.

And that's a very serious condition.

Why can't we have nice things? Why the pessimism about what Moderna can achieve here?

I think, uh, we certainly can, and the science is a real breakthrough, and it's really exciting.

It's the first time a personalized mRNA cancer vaccine has shown that it works.

There's all the reason for the enthusiasm.

I think the issue here is the stock may have outrun that enthusiasm a little bit.

Moderna, as you said, almost tripled in that first day, and a big reason for that may have been a bit of a short squeeze, with some short sellers getting caught on that move.

But in any case, it's almost like you added, like, two Modernas on top of the one Moderna on a single day.

So what are some of the headwinds for Moderna?

Journal Heard on the Street columnist David Weiner says this is the point where a promising biotech usually gets acquired, but that the sheer promise of the drug and its potential future use cases means Revolution could go it alone.

Revolution Medicines is now worth around $30 billion, and any acquirer would need to pay a significant premium on top of that.

That's a rare deal in any environment, and right now, most of the obvious buyers simply don't have the balance sheet capacity to pull this off.

The deeper point is that Revolution Medicines may not need to sell.

The history of biotech has a few examples of companies that were once considered takeover targets and instead went on to build franchises worth tens of billions of dollars.

Revolution Medicines has the ingredients for that path, with a pipeline that extends well beyond pancreatic cancer into lung, colorectal, and other tumors.

For long-term investors, the question isn't who buys Revolution Medicines, it's what the company looks like when it grows up.

Journal Heard on the Street columnist David Waner says this is the point where a promising biotech usually gets acquired, but that the sheer promise of the drug and its potential future use cases means Revolution could go it alone.

Revolution Medicines is now worth around thirty billion dollars, and any acquirer would need to pay a significant premium on top of that.

That's a rare deal in any environment, and right now, most of the obvious buyers simply don't have the balance sheet capacity to pull this off.

The deeper point is that Revolution Medicines may not need to sell.

The history of biotech has a few examples of companies that were once considered takeover targets and instead went on to build franchises worth tens of billions of dollars.

Revolution Medicines has the ingredients for that path, with a pipeline that extends well beyond pancreatic cancer into lung, colorectal, and other tumors.

For long-term investors, the question isn't who buys Revolution Medicines, it's what the company looks like when it grows up.

Journal Heard on the Street columnist David Weiner told me that Novo is facing intense competition from Eli Lilly, reshaping a GLP-1 drug market that looked vastly different just a few years ago.

Both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk agreed to reduce the prices of their drugs in some markets in exchange for some coverage with the Trump administration, and obviously removal of the tariff threats that were a big cloud over the entire industry last year.

There is obviously surging demand for these drugs, but the concern is that the price cuts are sort of working against or counteracting that growth in volume.

So take Novo Nordisk, for example.

The company's anticipating a five to 13% sales decline this year.

A lot of that is because prices are coming down.

In some markets, the drug's even going generic, like Canada, for example, and it's not yet seeing that volume growth that makes up for that price decline.

That's a far cry from the $1,000 or so a month that these companies have been charging for shots.

COVID vaccines, yeah

... and people thought, well...

And interest rates were, were, were low, right? Because of the pandemic.

So it was just this combination of easy money and amazing science, uh, and the world just thought that biotech was going to bring in these great riches right away, really quick, and there was just euphoria.

People were putting money everywhere they could in biotech.

And so obviously, and I don't know this real estate company very well, but obviously, if you're a real estate company in that area, you benefit from that, and people are just, uh, you know, renting out offices and that kind of thing.

In the last few years, we've seen this massive downturn in biotech.

[upbeat jingle] Okay, 2026, what are your guys' picks and pans, things to watch? David, what's the big story in 2026 for you?

What will determine whether it stays there?

So there's three things that are going to be key to Eli Lilly's future.

The first [laughs] and most important one is just how big this obesity market becomes.

Right now, Wall Street is modeling tens of millions of long-term users.

If adoption were to slow, obviously Lilly's valuation would come down as well.

But to a large degree, that really depends on insurance coverage as well, and that's the second thing.

So for a long time, there was this huge demand, and the big bottleneck was supply.

Could they take market share away from Lilly and dent its valuation, or is it the sort of thing where a rising tide lifts all boats?