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David Shapiro

Veteran South African market commentator and Chief Global Equity Strategist at Otto1890 (formerly Sasfin Securities), with 50+ years on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.

Oct 21, 2026

2:10
Mm-hmm.
2:10
And, and I think, uh, you know, generally there was a better feeling after the budget.
2:15
But the equity market just kinda shrugged it off, and I think reflects what the minister said, uh, in that growth is coming down.
2:23
So we have...
2:24
I think generally companies are still under pressure, dragged down by, uh, you know, higher costs, uh, falling consumer confidence, consumers under pressure.
2:33
So I think those still tend to weigh on, um, on the equity market.
2:39
But from the bond market and from the, uh, currency market, things are steady there.

14 MINS LATER

Reikh van NiekerkCORRESPONDENT
16:16
How do you foresee will it work in practice?
speaker_1HOST
2:43
understand.
2:45
Well, it's the irony of this and it's a paradox of these markets and it's sometimes very difficult to explain because we are globally, economies are under a lot of pressure and it's more at the lower end of the economic spectrum.
3:02
It's the affordability factor.
3:06
It's high oil prices, high fuel costs, and those all translate into higher food costs and so on.
3:14
And that's really around what the protests are.
3:16
You know, even if you look in France, yes, it starts off as a student revolution, but I think it kind of opens up there into much broader issues.
3:27
and it is it's a big problem and it's manifesting themselves in these protests but but but on the other hand um you see this in america or in certain nations this absolute drive by artificial intelligence we had spacex's results out today and they just show you how much money is being invested and spent.

6 MINS LATER

speaker_1HOST
10:16
knows.
0:43
[laughs]
0:44
Yeah.
0:44
And two Fed governors came out, they were talking, you know, part of the, uh, FOMC, the, uh, the, the Fed meeting.
0:52
Um, um, and both of them were fairly optimistic, uh, felt maybe one hike, I'm, I'm interpreting in my own way, one hike, um, this year, nothing in October, and then next year inflation would start to come down towards the 2% level and they wouldn't do anything.
1:10
And that's why markets were a little bubbly, picking up, until that inflation number came through from the US.
1:18
And everything's gone, uh, topsy-turvy, all over the place and down, and we were caught in the crossfire.
1:24
You know, we just came crashing down and ended, uh, in much lower with, um, you, you know ...
2:25
We know that the only estimates we're really probably concerned about at this stage are AI estimates, but the banks missing estimates is never a good start.
2:57
[laughs]
2:58
Yeah.
2:59
And two Fed governors came out.
3:01
They were talking, you know, part of the, uh, FOMC, the, uh, the, the Fed meeting.
3:07
Um, and, and both of them were fairly optimistic.
3:11
Uh, felt maybe one hike.
3:13
I'm, I'm interpreting in my own way.
4:40
We know that the only estimates we're really probably concerned about at this stage are AI estimates, but the banks missing estimates is never a good start.
Alec Hogg
Alec HoggCORRESPONDENT
4:45
It doesn't matter how rich you
4:46
are.
4:46
Yeah.
4:47
He was under pressure.
4:48
You know, he was under pressure of health.
4:50
What pressure? Whether it was health pressure, whether it was, I just want to get this over with.
4:55
I want to live a normal, normal, I'll put that in inverted commas, life.
Alec Hogg
Alec HoggCORRESPONDENT
6:32
Because what other defense do they have?
4:28
Jeremy Ord tell me to talk to him, David?
4:30
Oh, I don't look...
4:31
Anyway, I think...
4:32
But nevertheless, I'm not going to go down there, but he's not the advocate for them in this case.
4:38
Anyway, but the one thing... that I want to point out, and this bothers me.
4:46
Jason makes this confession.
4:49
The reply that we do get from Kuala Lata Data, sorry, from the four or five, is that this is contrary or contradicts what he said under oath in the admissions given to Fisher, given to Denise Fisher of the case.

14 MINS LATER

19:24
yeah.
1:38
Mm.
1:39
If they were lying.
1:40
And I think it's always a danger, you know, when you do things like that, when you commit a crime, whether it's a white-collar crime or whatever it is, there's always some witness that will crack or feel the, the pressure.
1:53
And I'm surprised that, you know, that it did ha- You know, he wa- I don't think he was part of the original DiData team.
2:00
I think he came later in there.
2:02
And, um, it, it must have been bothering him.
2:06
You know, it must have been, "You've got to continue the so-called lie or the fabrication for some time." And event- Alec, you know, this is what I can't understand.
3:25
But it, uh, I suppose it also must have taken, uh, it either took backbone or self-preservation.
1:40
Have you?
1:41
No.
1:42
And there's no necessity to get involved in this kind of transaction.
1:47
But Alec, let's go back a bit.
1:49
Go back to the Dydata listing.
1:52
Remember in 1987 when they were the darlings, as you mentioned, of the market.
2:00
It was at a time when companies were introducing computers into their enterprises and that.

6 MINS LATER

8:13
How's Neil going to work his way out of this? Or do you think Neil even knew that this was the case? Because surely… If you've got a story that you're putting out there as an advocate, Neil Lazarus being the guy, then you now suddenly have a story that isn't the one you've been working
4:21
Markets are not letting go of that as a risk factor and I'm guessing that has something to do with the longer term implication on inflation.
4:31
If we look at crude, I mean it's hovering around $100.
4:34
I'm talking Brent.
4:36
The American number is significantly lower, below $90.
4:40
But It's funny, all you need is a very small movement.
4:45
You know, we're not getting 5% increases or 110.
4:49
It's all around 100, yet it is influencing market participants.
6:40
I suppose the moment we have any resemblance of a little dollar strength, then the Rand dollar pair seemingly suffers the most.
2:26
Mm.
2:27
Uh, the American number is significantly lower, below 90.
2:31
But it, it's funny, it's, you, you, all you need is a very small movement.
2:36
You know, we're not getting 5% increases or 110 incre- It's, it's all around 100, yet it is influencing, uh, market participants.
2:45
There's concerns that, um, every time a ship is bombed in the Straits of Hormuz or attacked by the Iranians, you know, there are concerns and so on.
2:55
Uh, oil is flowing out, um, according to reports, but, uh, the tensions are still there.
3:00
You can't get rid of it.
4:38
... seemingly suffers the most.
31:56
You would never believe it looking at the Iran war headlines, but I suppose most of these profits were made at a time before Donald Trump started lobbying missiles and dropping bombs.
32:07
Bruce, yes.
32:08
Yes and no, because I still think those results are going to persist.
32:12
The one thing is I spent time in New York and Boston, family issues.
32:17
I was there for an extended time, and I was quite intrigued about attitudes there.
32:22
They're more intense.
32:24
intent on getting rid of Trump.
36:43
We haven't even begun to see interest rate hikes yet.
27:16
Even though there's this perceived uncertainty, billions and trillions of dollars are flooding around markets every single day.
27:25
And I think people are so confused by those definitions that they just brush it aside and continue.
27:32
I've just come back from visiting family in Boston and New York and spent a lot of time talking to people And the general conversation there is they are so confused by the politics and by all these definitions or claims that they just go to work every day and do what they do.
27:51
Whether they're doctoring, accounting, investing, plumbing, whatever it is, I think they've just brushed it aside because it's just too hard to defy it.
28:01
Bruce, another thing, I've been in markets for a long time, not out of choices, just that I've got to work to pay those airfares.
28:08
I don't think there's any period in my life where there hasn't been uncertainty.
28:13
It's just a matter of degree.
30:32
Are you looking at 2026 that South Africa might become a bit of a statistical outlier, perhaps, as the tide

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