Ukraine.

And Ukraine has said one of the things Vladimir said just recently, and Trump actually backed him up on it, was saying that Ukraine should have elections.

OK, since since I've invaded Ukraine, says Vladimir Zelensky has been the president.

He hasn't had an election.

So according to Putin, that means that Zelensky is not a democratically representing leader of Ukraine.

Well, let's think about it.

Put on your thinking hat.

I wonder how the good Lord is going to sort all this out one

Perhaps we can then... tap into your general worldview, financially speaking, I suppose, because is it correct to characterize your thesis as that we're the end of a multi-decade bull market?

Yes, I think we are coming to that end.

I actually am very bullish the equity market for the next several months still.

Don't know whether we might, just to kind of get there, my current S&P target is 10,000.

So I'm not sure where we were last time we spoke, but I'm at 10,000 on the S&P, 36,000 on NASDAQ, 70,000 on the Dow, and 4,000 on the Russell.

So if you do the numbers on those, you know, they're basically between 30 and probably the Russells.

over 40% now from here.

Would it also rise during this bull and the last leg of the bull market that you're outlining here for equities? Would it hold up well during that crash that you're outlining? And I suppose the money printing after should only benefit gold, shouldn't it?

PayDay Peanut Caramel Bar.

I am, um, yeah, this market has stretched out.

It, it's, uh, lasted longer than certainly I thought, probably more than most people thought.

But, um, it continues to look very good.

Uh, [coughs] you know, we're-- When you look at a market that's been hit with such a big jump in rates in such a short time, um, you'd expect a much bigger sell-off than we've seen.

Uh, it's proven to be very resilient.

I've raised my targets from that 7,000 several times over the course of the last couple of years.

Okay

What is your strategy? How long do you think it could last, the bear market? And what is your strategy in the aftermath of that drawdown in terms of potentially picking up things on sale?

Yeah, I do, I do think that there are comparisons to, um, 1989 Japan.

Um, I have said for a while that I think that the highs of this market cycle could stand for decades, which is what happened in Japan.

That being said, um, because I'm calling for a global bust, which I believe is something bigger than 2008-9 in terms of credit crisis, um, it's, the only one thing that's, uh, that's the most predictable thing in my forecast is how, how central banks and policymakers will respond.

They won't have a choice.

If you ask them today, they'd say, "No way, we're not doing that." But they won't have a choice when things are, when the financial system is free-falling.

You will see money coming out of every corner of every central bank, um, to the tune of, I think for the Fed, maybe twenty trillion dollars, maybe more, um, 'cause it's, it's...

Is that an area you're bullish on and, and anywhere else where you're seeing potential value?

Tell me about this, David, please.

Yeah, well, that was in 2005, and I was there when that all shook down.

Yeah, so I was hired by that gentleman there named Tom Harper to help market a shellfish food.

And he started to eat it, and he was expected to die.

He had mesothelioma.

expected to die in nine months.

He started to eat the phytoplankton as a joke, started to talk about how he felt better, and we were joking about how cancer medication makes people feel better.

Because you're destroying your immune system, right?

Do I have this correct?

Yeah, spot on.

I mean, we've, we've looked at this for a while.

So obviously we've been in GPS watches, um, tracking, GPS, really trying to help golfers improve their game, play better, play their best for a long time.

Um, we now do handheld GPS.

We even do launch monitor technology.

And we felt that, you know, as part of that, entering into that ecosystem, um, you know, a golfer who wears an Apple Watch, um, just most likely is gonna keep that Apple Watch on during their play.

Right.

Um, so how are you, I guess, calling this, um, and when we do see a, um, uh, a final, uh, melt up phase as you've been calling for, what are going to be the indicators for you to say that this is actually we're nearing a top at this point?

Sure.

I mean, there's always a risk that I'm wrong.

I'm a human being making a call.

So even though I've had a pretty good track record here for the last five or six, seven years and before, but that in particular, it doesn't mean I'm always going to be right.

So people have to understand it is my forecast.

It's not a given.

What is your current view on where the base money supply could go and how the Fed is gonna be reacting to the bust?

Mm-hmm.

Um, so that's a big part of it.

It's also the rat going through the snake, which is what the baby boomer is.

You know, they were the, the guys that, um, during the Vietnam War era obviously were the protesters and were, you know, calling for societal change.

As they started, uh, forming families and, and buying houses, they were, you know, they drove up home prices back in the '70s and '80s and, um, you know, furniture purchases and appliance purchases, all of that.

In the mid-'80s, um, financial industry looked out and recognized, you know, this, this rat is gonna start moving towards accumulating financial assets for retirement because they've already bought their houses and furniture by and large, and that's exactly what happened.

So they, uh, they were a big part of the accumulation of financial assets that's really gone on since the '80s.

Mm-hmm.

Well, let's go ahead and start with maybe a zoom out version of what's your macro take on the economy and w- on markets right now?

Sure.

Um, yeah, I think, you know, the economy's still surprisingly intact.

Um, I have always talked about a have and have-not economy.

You know, some people call it a K-shaped, uh, economy.

And I think that's still the issue is that, you know, half the, half the population doesn't feel like we're in a, a booming economy at all, uh, probably more than half.

And, um, and frankly, we are seeing signs that things are moving towards a recession.

All right, your take on gold.

Makes sense.

Yeah, I mean, you know, that seems, and it's within rocket range as opposed to, you know, hitting Washington, D.C. or something.

So it's not illogical to think, and in fact, Iran did launch on al-Uday back in July 12th, and then just yesterday as well, it hit al-Uday base.

And we have, I don't know for sure, but I think we have like, you know, thousands of American military units based there.

We also have at a place called Bahrain, the naval support activity in Bahrain.

It's the headquarters of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet.

Now, why wouldn't Iran strike Bahrain when it happens to have that location of the Fifth Fleet? It makes sense.

It seems not, not at

they

innocently forget who they are and they get trapped in this little world and the thinking, I can't get out of it.

But that's where I come in.

It's like to help them slow down and help them understand, you know what I mean? You are a human being.

You've got capable of love.

You've got capable of understanding, forgiveness.

It's just throughout, so knowing who you are is, yeah, you're a human being first and foremost.

suppressing your emotions, right?

But has anything fundamentally changed your outlook, or does today's market still fit within that long-term roadmap that you've been laying out for the last few years?

years?Yeah, my, my view hasn't changed.

I've raised targets, um, several times.

Obviously in my most recent, uh, raise, um, I hiked my, my S&P target to ten thousand and my NASDAQ target to thirty-six thousand from thirty-two thousand.

Um, and I still got a very bullish view on the Russell, which I think can go to four thousand, uh, and the Dow at sixty-seven thousand.

So my, my targets have been raised several times in the last couple of years, um, but the, the bull market's still intact.

I see nothing to indicate a top here.

Mm-hmm

And, uh you know kind of this this moral decay per se on the same level what if you care to provide any color on just kind of what you know just kind of juxtaposing uh the the you know today and and you know the 70s etc you know kind of what you're what you're yeah yeah

it's interesting i mean history does rhyme at times and and we had you know because of what happened in the mid 70s and the you know the Up until that point, that was the worst bear market after the Great Depression.

So 1974 was pretty rough.

Housing got hit, et cetera.

But we had the oil embargo, so it drove oil up at that time to incredible levels.

Gasoline went from very cheap to much more expensive.

You had gas lines, et cetera.

And, um, and, uh, one, taking it

What do you see across the rest of the market? Modities, softs, so on and so forth.

Yep.

So first of all, one thing we haven't talked about, which is an important driver here, um, is the earnings have been tremendous.

they've exceeded everybody's expectations.

So a lot of that is obviously AI, and AI following through the need to build power plants and all that.

Some of it is the money that's come in to reshore.

You know, we're seeing some rebuilding of our manufacturing base.

So talk a little bit about that inflection point, the turn as you currently see it.

Mm

... will be treasuries across the inter- entire curve.

Uh, 'cause frankly, if, uh, I, I expect the, the 10-year to drop to zero, the 30-year to drop to a quarter to a half percent.

You know, in, in 2000, in 2020, I think we got down to 0.4% on the 10-year and maybe 0.8 on the, the 30-year.

So I think we have one higher high in the bond market.

It'll be a secular market top, uh, the likes of which we won't see for the next decade for sure.

Um, but, but I think you get that.

Mm-hmm.

So David, what do we know that works then if you slice and dice?

We know that exercise has small effects, and I think this reinforces evidence from other studies.

The nuance of the interpretation here is that taking a one size fits all approach and applying one exercise prescription for the whole population is likely to come out with the effects that we're seeing here, which are small effects.

They're positive effects, but when you take a population of people and you apply one particular type of exercise, it doesn't work for everybody.

So I think we have to be nuanced in our approach to this exercise, making sure that it is done and undertaken according to their goals, the preferences that they have for different types of intervention, and their ability to stick to it long term.

And it needs to be done as part of a package.

You know, a person needs both to do the strengthening exercise, both to do some physical activity if they're above a healthy weight to lose weight, and then to look at other therapies as well, including appropriate use of analgesics, braces, shoes, and not just to look at this as a one size fits all.

So what about the joint that everybody's talking about, the knee?