Is this what finally derails the bull market?

We don't think so, at least not on its own.

So in our last few reports, we've looked at the connection between rates and equities in a few different ways.

On the Fed, we've looked at equity performance around the first hike going all the way back to the 1970s.

And in general, we find that equities do indeed tend to wobble in the first three months after the Fed starts lifting rates, but performance looks fine after 6 or 12 months.

So it's a source of volatility initially, but it's very rare that the first hike would derail an equity bull market.

And on long end yields, it's also a mixed bag, but we've looked at past instances where we've had a fast and sharp rise in 10-year yields, much like today, and in those 30 instances or so, equities were actually up three months later.

This doesn't seem to be going away, so how are we thinking about the risks?

So talk us through where we stand, what's been driving this move higher out of late.

Yeah, that's right.

So equities are climbing once again.

And if we look over the past month or so, pretty much every major region is up anywhere from 2% to 4%.

And some of the more volatile tech-linked markets like the Nasdaq or Korea's KOSPI have bounced off their lows from late July.

That means the global equity benchmark has already delivered very solid returns of around 15% this year.

But what's been interesting is that these gains have been very broad based.

But do we still see that continuing from here?

Will we see a sustained broadening of market leadership beyond tech going forward?

So, yeah, we've had a taste for this broadening in the past few weeks.

And I guess the big question now is, can it last? And our answer is partly yes, but maybe not a full broadening.

We actually like to call it narrow broadening.

So there are really two conditions you need to meet for a sustained broadening trade to take hold.

So first, you need evidence of a broad cyclical recovery, both in macro and earnings.

I think we are starting to see that.

So could we be in something like an earnings bubble for many of these names?