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David H. Capie

David H. Capie

Researcher

Sep 4, 2026

5:07
So how much do you think predictability is feeding into this sense that Washington may be a greater threat these days than Beijing?
5:18
Yeah, well, maybe I could give your viewers a bit of a sense of some of this polling, just so you've got a bit of context.
5:25
This is polling that's been done by the Asia New Zealand Foundation, a non-profit organization in New Zealand now for about three decades.
5:32
So it's a really interesting longitudinal survey of how New Zealanders feel about different countries in the region.
5:40
And I guess what we have seen in New Zealand over the last five or six years in particular is that feelings of warmth towards China have dropped.
5:52
And there's probably a number of different reasons for that, but they're reasons that play out across a number of liberal democracies, Australia as well.
6:02
They're everything from China's actions in the South China Sea, the national security law in Hong Kong, the treatment of the Uyghurs, issues around foreign interference.
9:03
So with all this going on with the competition for influence in your neighborhood, growing mistrust of both China and the United States, a very active Australian policy now in the Pacific, what is New Zealand's foreign policy as regards to the region and perhaps beyond?
13:16
How does New Zealand's, uh, defense spending rack up against countries, for instance, like Australia or even our other Five Eyes partners?
13:25
Australia's spending now, uh, higher than 2%, I think around 2.2%, and has talked about going, uh, to 3% and possibly even further.
13:35
Canada, for example, has b- historically [laughs] been another fairly low spender on defense, although it in the last, um, year under new Prime Minister Carney has a- announced, um, that it will meet the NATO, the new NATO goal of 3.5% on, on sort of core defense spending over a, over an extended period of time.
13:55
At one level, you know, these are, um, they're kinda clunky numbers.
13:59
2%, uh, you know, it, it, its origins used to be back in the NATO days that that was a sort of a, a target for, for what NATO countries, um, should spend.
14:09
Now the expectation of NATO, NATO members is that it's 3.5%, plus another up to 5% if you include sort of security-related infrastructure.
14:19
So the two and a half thing, it, it's, it, it's a kind of a guide in some ways in the sense of course if your economy shrinks [laughs], you can get a lower number will get you to 2% faster.
16:42
So are we putting the money in the right places right now?

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