
David H. Capie
Researcher
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Sep 4, 2026
Why Should We Care if the Pacific Islands Are Playing Both Sides? | with David Capie
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Ray PowellHOST
So how much do you think predictability is feeding into this sense that Washington may be a greater threat these days than Beijing?

David CapieGUEST
Yeah, well, maybe I could give your viewers a bit of a sense of some of this polling, just so you've got a bit of context.

David CapieGUEST
This is polling that's been done by the Asia New Zealand Foundation, a non-profit organization in New Zealand now for about three decades.

David CapieGUEST
So it's a really interesting longitudinal survey of how New Zealanders feel about different countries in the region.

David CapieGUEST
And I guess what we have seen in New Zealand over the last five or six years in particular is that feelings of warmth towards China have dropped.

David CapieGUEST
And there's probably a number of different reasons for that, but they're reasons that play out across a number of liberal democracies, Australia as well.

David CapieGUEST
They're everything from China's actions in the South China Sea, the national security law in Hong Kong, the treatment of the Uyghurs, issues around foreign interference.

Jim CarousoHOST
So with all this going on with the competition for influence in your neighborhood, growing mistrust of both China and the United States, a very active Australian policy now in the Pacific, what is New Zealand's foreign policy as regards to the region and perhaps beyond?
Attack on defence spending causes offense
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13:16Shalise TansyHOST
How does New Zealand's, uh, defense spending rack up against countries, for instance, like Australia or even our other Five Eyes partners?

David CapieGUEST
Australia's spending now, uh, higher than 2%, I think around 2.2%, and has talked about going, uh, to 3% and possibly even further.

David CapieGUEST
Canada, for example, has b- historically [laughs] been another fairly low spender on defense, although it in the last, um, year under new Prime Minister Carney has a- announced, um, that it will meet the NATO, the new NATO goal of 3.5% on, on sort of core defense spending over a, over an extended period of time.

David CapieGUEST
2%, uh, you know, it, it, its origins used to be back in the NATO days that that was a sort of a, a target for, for what NATO countries, um, should spend.

David CapieGUEST
Now the expectation of NATO, NATO members is that it's 3.5%, plus another up to 5% if you include sort of security-related infrastructure.

David CapieGUEST
So the two and a half thing, it, it's, it, it's a kind of a guide in some ways in the sense of course if your economy shrinks [laughs], you can get a lower number will get you to 2% faster.