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David Boling

David Boling

Jul 30, 2026

12:07
What is your read on the timeline for this investigation? And how are you seeing it likely to play out? And in particular, does the conclusion of the forced labor investigation tell you anything about what to expect in this excess capacity investigation? Have you updated your priors in the last week or so about how that is all going to come out?
12:30
I can't conclude a lot from the forced labor investigation and apply that to the excess economic capacity investigation.
12:41
I'll probably tell you why.
12:41
First of all, the forced labor one, as you mentioned, it covered 60 trading partners.
12:46
The excess economic capacity covers 16.
12:50
The 60 trading partners from the forced labor investigation, if you looked at the list, they were all alphabetical.
13:00
If you look at the list for the excess economic capacity investigation, China's the first one listed, and then it's not alphabetical.

15 MINS LATER

27:45
So when you think about the future of US trade policy, and when you're advising businesses about how to think about what this might look like two and a half, three years from now, Do you imagine that these tariffs are going to be quite sticky or are these actually tariffs that could be renegotiated given how experimental so much of this really has been?

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