Which side do you like here and why?

I really like old miss here.

And I know that there's a lot of money coming in on old miss from the public side.

And then people are avoiding Texas.

And then you start wondering, well, is there too much money coming in old miss? And do you take Texas at home? And you're going to give me what I consider the better team that is playing the better football with the better talent.

And you're going to give me three and a half points.

I'm going to do it.

Is the better play potentially the under here at 39, 39.5?

Which side do you like here and why?

I really like old miss here.

And I know that there's a lot of money coming in on old miss from the public side.

And then people are avoiding Texas.

And then you start wondering, well, is there too much money coming in old miss? And do you take Texas at home? And you're going to give me what I consider the better team that is playing the better football with the better talent.

And you're going to give me three and a half points.

I'm going to do it.

Is the better play potentially the under here at 39, 39.5?

Right now, market pretty much painted 3-3 in favor of the Chicago Bears here, David.

Yeah, I do like the home team, and I know that the road favorites have won a lot of these primetime games recently this season, but I just think the Bears are a different offense with Caleb Williams, and the three games with Williams are averaging 31 points and over 400 yards per game, and that includes that week two loss to Minnesota where they only scored three points and under 300 yards against the Falcons last week.

You saw Williams complete 30 of 36 passes.

just looked really really good the offense looks good the defense is good too they're both top seven in the league and you'd have to wonder can this Patriots team beat anybody good that's not the Buffalo Bills they blew out they won the shootout with the Bills earlier this year they beat the Bills last year but other than that they're not beating anybody with a good offense they made their playoff run last year and didn't look good doing so on offense Drake May has looked good but The Chicago Bears are a little bit of a step up in class from what they've played recently.

The Patriots have offensive line issues as well.

Face a Bears defense that had five sacks last week against the Falcons.

I just think the Bears are the better team.

Explain why you're taking the points with the Giants.

Where do you think the future of this sport is by, you know, 10 years from now? What are we looking at in 2035?

You know, whereas I think there is some, some credence to the article that, that you're referencing that said, like, the Ohio States of the world, Michigans could go out on their own and get their own Notre Dame type deal, and it, it, it's actually out there that that's a possibility come 2030, 2031 because you don't have a conference championship game and you don't necessarily have the ties to the conference anymore.

There is so much money in those TV deals that I don't think they leave just yet.

So I'll take the other option.

I do think the future of the sport is the super, super league.

I think you're gonna see, you know, the top 10 to 12 schools from the SEC, the top 10 to 12 schools from the Big 10, and maybe the top two schools from the other conferences form a super, super league.

Sort of what they tried to do in soccer a couple years ago that didn't work, and taking those big teams and putting them up there because there's too much money that those teams can get that the little guys can't get.

Um, what are you more surprised by, BYU only being a six-and-a-half point favorite at the Bounce House in Orlando, or Tennessee being a two-and-a-half point dog with that defense at South Carolina?

Yep.

And it's almost like a congratulations Miami, congratulations BYU, you were the two teams that didn't lose.

So we're gonna put you one and two because I'm gonna sit here and, and, and here's your quote for tomorrow.

There's no planet in this galaxy where BYU is the second-best team in the country.

Just not.

They have a number two next to them in the AP poll, but they're 35 to 1 in the, in, in the odds.

And I look at that more...

Yeah

That's what it is.

To your question, um, a couple of the teams that I was on early in the season, and nothing has changed to your point, because they are where they're at and the schedules haven't changed.

I had the Lions as an over team based on an easy schedule.

They played a last-place schedule, which I'm not a fan of saying last-place schedule, unless you're the Lions and, and you get to play the Cardinals instead of playing s- you know, the LA Rams, and you get to play the Giants instead of playing the Eagles, and that's what the Lions have been getting.

The Lions have a true last-place schedule.

They're three and two on the season.

Their schedule is easy.

Um, but what do you think about the betting market? Is there a low total you like to go under? Is there a high total you want to go over? Um, any of those specific games that you wanted to highlight just in terms of this slate.

Denver, what do you got for the total?

We're going to come right out of the bat with an under here, 40 and a half.

I wanted to take Seattle, Tim.

I was trying to do it.

Then how they played the 49ers.

It's short rest.

It's mile high.

42 and a half is the Undertaker coming back for another under in Chiefs Chargers.

Whether you think it's been easier bets, whether you're making more money on it, do you have a theory as to why you've been more effective?

I think the totals are softer than the lines, and that's just quite honestly from somebody who's done this for a while.

Everybody bets the lines, and if you're waiting until Sunday to bet an NFL line, you've probably already lost any value that was there.

Uh, if I'm gonna bet a side and a line, I'm gonna do it earlier in the week and get the best number.

It doesn't necessarily work.

I liked Chicago last week, and that slapped me in the face.

But with the totals, the total's not, it's not as bet on as the sides.

I don't know how much money I'm willing to put on them.

But if you really break down the Bills season, how for real is this team, David Bearman?

Do I think the Bills can win the AFC? Yes.

Do I think they should be the favorite and the best team in the conference? No.

Simply put, the Buffalo Bills are the exact same team they've been for the last five to six years.

They have a wonderful offense that's reliant on Josh Allen being a dual threat quarterback.

I was talking last night with my cousin during the game.

Obviously, big dolphin fans were wondering why teams, especially teams like the L.A. Rams, insist on sitting back and not making Josh Allen use his arm, which has proven to not be great.

And I don't think

What do you make of the South Carolina-Florida matchup in the SEC?

Last week when we talked about the Missouri game, there was a reason why I didn't touch the side.

I leaned Florida, but I didn't like the spot.

I did say, hey, this game's going to go over.

Why? Because Florida has a bad secondary.

Also gave out that Simmons was going to go over.

So you knew what you were getting with the Florida secondary.

What do you like in this spot?

But are we seeing, I guess at the end of the day, anywhere you can find an advantage against the people doing the lines?

I think when it, when it comes to the trends first and foremost, I, I'm a trends guy, but you've gotta filter through the noise of what's a good trend and what's a bad trend.

'Cause you, you, I can give you 50 trends on both sides of a bet, but a lot of them are gonna be, you know, uh, does that really make sense? Do we care that Florida lost at Missouri seven years ago? And it's irrelevant to what's happening in the game, although same result.

Um, in, in terms of edges, it, it is more or less week to week.

I, I like match-ups.

I like looking at, all right, well, the Jags have one of the best rush defense, uh, rush defenses in football consistently since Liam Cohen got there.

Bet against the running back who faces them, and that's 4 and 0 this year.

How hard is it to bet a game on the Vikings, let alone a total, with what's going on with that offense?

[laughs]

They were obviously o- you know, they...

All the, the, the, the loss that you mentioned was when the Raiders and the Chiefs played each other, so someone had to lose.

So in theory, except for when two teams played each other, not one of the Dolphins' opponents has actually lost a game other than against each other.

Um, you mentioned the hardest start to a season this year of any team, tied with the Broncos, but they're still not a good football team.

Now, are there glimpses of...

The defense played very well against Kansas City.

[laughs]

to carry it that's true well he's been carrying this segment with winners left and right so let's jump right into the week slate you know i love to look at uh unders with you you are the undertaker so let's take a look at the week four slate david and go to bears and jets right now circa sitting 43 a lot of 42 and a halves out there what should we expect from case keenum do we get an encore performance on short rest here against the jets

Hey, give them credit.

If anything, Monday night showed me that the that the Bears offense is quarterback proof, like whether it's Caleb Williams or it's Case Keenum off the shelf.

It's quarterback proof, but to a limit.

They're just not as explosive as they would be with Caleb Williams there.

And we saw that their running game was held to three point seven yards per rush on Monday night against the Eagles.

Fifty percent of those yards were on that last drive of the game that clinched it.

What do you see in San Francisco hosting Denver on Sunday afternoon?

No

doubt.

It's a tough spot because you saw what Ole Miss did last week, you know, winning at LSU and then going to Gainesville and let down the spot.

And, you know, I watched some of the film and some of the videos that Florida University has sent out.

And it shows John Summerall in the team meeting say, I don't want to hear the word Ole Miss mentioned one time this entire week.

It's over.

It's the past.

Were we jumping too far ahead on anointing him a great quarterback? What are you seeing about Drake May, and what does that make you feel about the Patriots?

But-

He does.

A- a- a- and you're right, he, he's gotta win the games, and he does win the press conference, and he's doing all the right things.

I...

If you go to my Twitter, @davidbierman, I retweeted something last night of, it was a 10-minute video of the game and Sumrall and how he's pumping up his team and some of the, the, the, the Mike Tyson, Buster Douglas references in there about, you know, win the cut, win the cut.

Um, it, it, it...

He's doing the right things.

It's damn near two touchdowns against Oklahoma, and I just, I wonder what's the right side of this game.

Do you like a side or total in Carolina, Atlanta?

You know, I gave out the Panthers, Falcons under multiple times last year.

And, on this show, and we all laughed at, you know, why I'm taking these crappy games.

I like the Panthers, Falcons game this week, and, and I'm gonna go with a side.

And you're never gonna believe the fact that I would take a team that has never won as a favorite with their current quarterback.

CJ Stroud...

Sorry, Bryce Young has never won as a favorite at all, um, and they're, they just allowed 59 points.

Are you expecting a bounce-back after the embarrassment down under?

David, taking away the Chargers and what happened against the Cardinals, what was the biggest, uh, betting surprise to you in week one of the NFL?

I think it was probably the, honestly, the Sunday night game, if you take the Chargers out of it.

I didn't expect the, the Giants to totally dominate the Cowboys the way they did.

It wasn't a game that I played.

Um, I was at the game, so I was just like, I played a couple of props while I was there live.

But I thought Dallas was one of the teams this year that had improvement on defense.

They drafted on defense.

First, your thoughts on Gators-Tigers, and then your thoughts on LSU-Ole Miss.

What's your first lean on tonight's game?

My first play is going to be under, Mark.

I'm on the same page as you.

That is what you will get as soon as I'm off the air and I type up that Betting with Bereman newsletter.

I am on the under.

I wish it gets to 40...

I hope it gets to 45.

Can they live up to the hype?

How much of an advantage do you have for the teams that played and not all of them play this weekend, but for the week zero teams that are coming back and playing this weekend?

think it depends on every situation you know in the florida state situation i thought they looked awful and to me that pointed out that i just don't think they're a very good team and now you face an smu team that aches pretty solid and by the way when did you ever think you'd wake up and see smu favored by three in tallahassee it's like right in another alternative universe i just don't think they're a very good football team because even though it was week zero florida state should have dismantled that new mexico state team they're not good like Point blank, not good.

That game should have not been close at any point in time.

But you take a situation like Stanford, who looked decent in their Week 0 win.

Now they face a Miami Hurricanes team that's flying cost country to play over there.

I think that gives Stanford an advantage.

I'm not saying they're going to pull the upset, but 24.5 points.

Is this a litmus test for the Huskies? Is it even? But more a bigger picture, should this series continue when one program is talking about potentially shutting down and the other one's potentially going for a national championship? This seems like such an awkward matchup, and I feel for the Cougar people.

Mm-hmm.

And you lose in a playoff to a top five guy.

Viktor Hovland's a top five player in the world.

So as we know in football, sometimes the ball bounces your way and sometimes it doesn't.

For the majority of the season, Scottie was getting a couple of bad breaks and finishing runner-up.

Won the first playoff event in Memphis, hand, foot, and mouth disease at the BMW.

And Scott, what I'm really excited about was winning today kind of just puts the, the, the cement on it because what I didn't want to see, and all due respect to the other 29 golfers in the field, is the way they have it set up without the staggered start- And without the fact that you can win the event and not win the FedEx Cup trophy.

When's the next time we're gonna see Scottie in action?

When you look at that game, is there anything

that you see? And I'm in agreement there.

I do like the under in this game because of the weather situation plus tremendous amount of turnover on both sides.

And that's the error we're in.

We're in the NIL transfer portal error.

So you're going to see a lot of turnover there.

year after year with these teams now with the new rules or lack of rules that they have.

When you look at... right now you're trying to get value as best you can and it changes every day but is there a division winner in the NFL that you think is worthy of taking a shot at we were going through an exercise of how many you know to me there's a bunch of quarterbacks that I think might be the best quarterback in their division but I don't know if their team's going to win the division so if you were to bet that oh go ahead

How are you approaching this Lions season?

Yeah, I mean, this defense is going to be the most competitive in football.

As you mentioned, all four teams had nine wins or more last year, and the Lions, via the tiebreakers, finished last.

And, and I, I've gone on air and said I'm not, you know, I'm not a big fan of the saying first place schedule, last place schedule, 'cause overall you're talking about a three-game difference throughout the division.

But in this case it is a big difference.

The Lions do have the fourth/last place schedule, and with that you're facing Arizona, Tennessee, and the Giants as your extra three games instead of Seattle, Pittsburgh, and Philly, who, the top of the division will play in, uh, last year it was the Chicago Bears.

So that's a big difference.

Just, uh, big picture thoughts here on your Fins Up team.

Just, uh, without giving away state secrets-

secrets-Sure.

You worked for ESPN, you had Pro Football Network, so you, you have done a lot of the research.

There are sites out there that help us with research.

Mm-hmm.

How do you best take all of the information out there and put it into whatever system that you use to try to, you know, read between the lines, if you will? Well, my main motto is to filter through the noise.

That's one of my top kinda slogans, is I can give you, with unequivocally without blinking, I can give you 50 reasons to take each side of a bet.

Is there someone in that middle gap that you think there's some value? I see Penn State winning a lot of games with their schedule, but I don't know if they can get to the Natty.

who has the best value in the NFC North, the best betting value, not necessarily to win it, but just when you look at the odds, who has the best value?

And we will be previewing the NFC North.

I'm looking right now at my schedule a week from today with Scott Seidenberg from Better Day Podcast.

He'll be on to preview the NFC North.

For value-wise, I would go with the team that won it last year, the Chicago Bears, who I don't think are the best team in the division.

You just said not best team, but most value.

But they're getting 3-1 on your money today.

What do you see out of the Chiefs this year?

Are you going with Tom Kim here in the final round tomorrow?

I gave him out on here on Wednesday at 36 to one, and I'm sticking with Tom Kim.

He was the hot name going into the Open Championship 'cause he had just won the Scottish Open and he finished third at the US Open, which was almost his welcome to 2026 party that he was there.

We were disappointed when the missed cut at the Open to, to quote a guy like Jason Sobel, who I've had on my podcast as well, "You don't swear off a guy that you like just because you did the research and he failed you one week." Don't abandon ship.

We went right back with him.

Tied for 20th in Minnesota two weeks ago, now has four top 20s in his last six events.

The issue that I told you on, uh, t- Wednesday that might stop him from winning is his putter.

But when you look at this NFC East division, where were you originally on the Commanders, and how much do you think losing Laremy Tunsil affects them? And if you do think it affects them, does that change your opinion on the other teams in the NFC East division?