I mean, does that sound like Democrats are backing off of that accountability question? Is that the right move? I

think this is the trickiest This is the trickiest pass for them to navigate because I do think people want accountability.

They understand that we've seen corruption on a massive scale.

They believe that corruption has impacted on their lives because of decisions that are made in Washington that are bought and paid for by this corruption.

I think that it is important for governing reasons as well as political reasons that Democrats pursue that.

But the question is whether you allow that to overwhelm the stuff you're trying to do that will tangibly affect people's lives in a positive way.

Yeah, so you have to pursue these two tracks and not allow the corruption track, the accountability track to become so dominant that the impression is that you're doing exactly what...

Like, is this the difference between the trail and Washington? Or is this a political victory that's not Schumer's and Jeffrey Stone?

So just give me your kind of 30,000 foot view of how the combination of those two things might alter the calculus of these many, many, many, many, many people who are thinking about running for president.

um well first of all i think everybody recognizes that you can't get elected president unless you can get nominated and so the focus is going to be like on that nominating process and you know the history of this is that if you don't win somewhere early um you know biden was a bit of an exception but it wasn't that late that he won uh south carolina If you don't win somewhere early, you get written out of the script.

So the question all of them are asking is, you know, where can I win? And, you know, one of the big winners on Tuesday was Senator Ossoff, who's, you know, right next door in Georgia.

Senator Warnock is...

His senior senator in Georgia is also thinking about running.

Those two guys would be encouraged by the map.

You know, a guy like Bashir, Andy Bashir, who was head of the Democrat Governors Association and helped elect, whole boatload of Democratic governors this year I think he's very excited about South Carolina being the starting point and then you know but others are looking at well can I score in Nevada and you know which has a whole different makeup there are still others who are looking at New Hampshire as the place to start who have a completely different profile so that's the math that people are doing right now.

What do you think about all of those? Well, I think, you know, look,

only twice in a hundred years that that's happened.

Yeah, so...

Generally, people register their displeasure with the party in power in these midterm elections.

And they're plenty pissed off at Donald Trump.

His numbers are bad.

He has broken the most fundamental promise that he made or promises.

One was to get their costs down.

said this week that there are scenarios where we would have to step in.

You know, we'll get back to the, there'll be some candidates who are more progressive and some less, and then we're gonna get into electability again, and I wonder what you thought about that argument.

Well, first of all, um, you want, the, one of the other things she said to, uh, uh, Shane Goldmacher of the Times was that, um, uh, essentially she didn't wanna run a kind of Pyrrhic race.

She want- if she, if she ran, she was gonna run to win, and she needed to know.

So you fit those two together, and that's interesting.

Look, I, what I hope, you, primaries should be a robust discussion within a party about the direction of the, and how, what, what are the right paths.

I find the whole discussion of, you know, will the center right win, will the progressives win, will the...

We are faced with such monumental challenges in this country.

Hmm.

But what do you think?

And with some good candidates.

You know, first of all, Favs, I don't know if you're having flashbacks, but I sure am from 2010.

And I watched the Republicans and, you know, they're doing what we did, which is to try and rationalize that what is obviously happening isn't going to happen.

I think that the climate is bad for Republicans and getting worse.

The president is not helping.

I mean, I'm not saying that Donald Trump is trying to lose the election for Republicans, but if he were trying, he would not do anything differently than he's doing.

Usually the president suffers from bad feelings about the economy, but it's not often the president's out there bragging about the things that people are most angry at.

Is there anyone that is standing out to you for what they're doing, how they're doing it? Or do you think at this point it's all a wash? Yeah, go ahead.

Oh, no, no, no.

I don't look.

John Ossoff has elevated himself into the front ranks of candidates by the way he's conducted himself in the in the Georgia election.

I mean, they've been very clever about how they've parceled out candidates.

vertical videos from his speeches, and they've gone viral, and he's become, you know, quite a sensation among activist Democrats.

You know, I think Governor Shapiro is playing a different game, which is he's going to roll up a big score, but he wants to be able to say, and I brought three or four congressional seats with me, and that will be part of his messaging.

So speaking of the future of the past acts, correct me if I'm wrong, but did you mention Kamala Harris? How does that play in?

Mm

... really maybe the only time I ever saw Mueller, because we did not have communications between political people in the White House and the Justice Department and the FBI, other than the White House counsel or chief of staff.

Mueller came in to brief the president on what happened, and, um, it was so impressive to me because he, the first thing he said was, "Mr.

President, this is on us.

We missed this.

There were signs.

We should've caught them.

... have a chance to pick up the majority here?

What do you make of this announcement that – well, first of all, that he'll be executed by firing SWAT, but second, this idea of live streaming it?

Yeah.

First of all, I do remember it well, Scott.

And that was at the end of the tenure of Bob Mueller as FBI director.

And it was really maybe the only time I ever saw Mueller because we did not have communications between political people in the White House and the Justice Department and the FBI other than the White House counsel or chief of staff.

But Mueller came in to brief the president on what happened.

And it was so impressive to me because the first thing he said was, Mr.

Do you think Democrats have a chance to pick up the majority here?

... um, should the Republicans lose both chambers?

Um, look, this is a concern of mine, uh, because, uh, you know, I sort of sold my, oh, he'd never do that stock like five years ago.

I worry about, uh, the, a, an attempt by the Justice Department or, uh, even the military if he were to call a national emergency.

So I, I mean, you know, I hope I'm wrong about all of it.

He'll say I'm paranoid, but I think this is an environment where if you're not paranoid you're kinda crazy.

Okay, very good

So I, I think this is really a unique moment In history and a really challenging moment when we have to prove to the world that our democracy is agile enough to, to function and solve these problems.

If the election were today, what would this election look like for Democrats?

Yeah.

Well, the election isn't today.

And you've been following the weather.

It's very unpredictable.

But there are certain things that I think are true and will hold here.

My guess is it will be, you know, around with a kind of 15-seat majority in that neighborhood.

Where do you all think we are in terms of the security of this election? And are you concerned about after this election? should the Republicans lose both chambers?

What does this fight over Kennedy Center do for Trump?

Well, it's a distraction, for one thing.

You know, the paradox of all of this, the irony of it, is that he is creating fake news because the real news is so damaging to him.

And, you know, prices going up largely because of the war that he began.

uh and can't get out of and the trade wars that he's launched and the tariffs that are punishing people and those are real real life stories that's real news uh and he'd rather have us spend time talking about this other stuff uh than that and that's that's his party trick aaron that's what he's always been good at which is to sort of hijack the news cycles and um and and get us talking about other things than the things that he doesn't want us to be talking about you know on the kennedy center i will say on a personal note i mean i was one of those young people who was inspired by the uh memory of john f kennedy to public service This Kennedy Center was dedicated by the United States Congress as a living memorial to John F. Kennedy.

This would be like taking a wrecking ball to the Washington Monument or the Lincoln Memorial or the Jefferson Memorial.

And I don't think the courts are going to allow that to happen, as surely they're not going to allow CNN and the other news organizations to be banned from the White House.

Do you think that this will have any consequences? Or given the loathing that so many Americans have for the press anyway, is this story a wash?

So where do you think we stand?

You know, look, there are historical sort of precedents that I guess have some value.

And they go to where the president's approval rating is, and particularly where the president's approval rating is on the things that are most important to people, which is generally the economy.

That's certainly true now.

And where Trump's approval rating is, is terrible.

You know, he's somewhere in the 30s, depending on which polling average you accept.

But everyone, Republican and Democratic, acknowledges that he is in a deep hole.

consciously, can I just ask in 2008, was that... a pretty conscious part of your effort and your messaging?

... that both of those Senate races are contin- considered toss-ups now? Like, do you see it?

Yeah, no, I think it's a recognition of the reality.

Uh, it, it, it would be a big turnabout, and Texas has been sort of fool's gold for Democrats for, uh, a long time.

But, um, the combination of the deterioration of the President's standing, uh, you know, he won these states by 13 points, each of them, uh, and is now underwater in these states, uh, in his favorable.

Uh, Iowa, uh, has been hit harder by some of the President's decisions.

The tariffs and the war in particular have just pummeled the, the farm economy and the local economy, uh, diesel fuel, fertilizer, and exports.

Uh, and in Texas you have on the other side of this race, uh, Ken Paxton, who, uh, was not the choice of, uh, a lot of Republicans in, uh, Texas and who is a scandal-ridden, uh, candidate.

[laughs]

What does Nixon's win say about your party?

Well, look, uh, I don't know that the, uh, I don't know that it says everything that people are assigning to it other than that, uh, good candidates and vigorous campaigns win.

You know, Alex Vindman was and I think is a, a national hero for his military service, but also for the courageous thing he did in, uh, in being a whistleblower, uh, in the first Trump administration.

Uh, but he was new to Florida.

He's relatively new to politics.

Uh, and he didn't run a very aggressive campaign because I think he assumed that he was gonna win the primary, and he was looking forward, uh, to the general.

So he raised $16 million.

In your view, does the Democratic nominee for governor right now, the former Republican congressman, David Jolly, really have a shot against the GOP's nominee, Byron Donalds?

When you read this story, how unprecedented do you believe this is?

Well, very.

Uh, yeah, I, I flow, I flew with the president to Afghanistan.

I flew with the president to Iraq.

Those were kept secret.

Those visits were kept, uh, closely guarded secrets until we were en route there, uh, when, uh, everyone on the plane and the, the media was informed.

Uh, there was an embargo until we landed because the whole point was not to alert, uh, those who might attack the president's plane.

I mean, to your point about why the press is always with the president when he travels.

But what are his strengths and vulnerabilities as you see it, David?

Look, his strengths, I think, are pretty significant.

And you mentioned the money, but the money, we saw an example in the Senate race that money is not a guarantee of anything.

We just saw it again, frankly, in Michigan, where a candidate spent $60, $70 million on television and still came up short.

So money is not a guarantee, but it's also a very good guarantee.

to have.

You have to have a story to tell.

What impact do you think this movement, this socialist movement, will have on the presidential race and who wins the nomination? Does it mean, for example, that AOC has a real chance of getting on the ticket or Mamdani even?

And that in the, in the second half of his term when he presumably will never be on a ballot again and people don't have to worry about his power as president, or they'll have to worry about his power as someone who, who has a bully pulpit, that gradually you'll have more defections, you'll have more defiance on things that, that Republican senators care about, or is that wishful thinking?

The most powerful instinct o- of a politician is survival.

And so the question is, right now the reason that...

Th- It's not love that binds them to Donald Trump, it's fear.

And, uh, the question is whether they end up in a... whether they come to a position where they say, "If I, if I follow him any further, I am endangering myself more than if I don't." And that's, that's the point at which it will tip.

It is a natural thing for presidents to lose power in the last two years of their presidency.

You know, my concern is honestly how he will process that and handle that because the, the one thing that Donald Trump cannot countenance is irrelevancy.

They're not contracting, correct?

Right.

And he empaneled a task force, including, uh, led by the vice president, to find out where the fraud was that led to this, uh, to this mistake.

And they, uh, they worked on this for a year, and then had to disband because they couldn't find any fraud.

I mean, this is a, a running story with him.

But my concern, Erin, isn't- Uh, I mean, yes, I agree with Ty's analysis of what motivates the president to reject any kind of, uh, negative, uh, f- uh, verdict from voters.

But, uh, you know, the concern I have is what this signals for the next four months, and I feel it's gonna be a pretty bumpy ride, and you could hear, uh, Secretary Mullen, uh, you know, suggesting-

Mm

... that he's gonna bully state officials.

Is there a path forward for Plattner if Democrats want to win this Senate seat in November?

No, I don't think so.

I don't think there's any path forward.

His financial base has collapsed within the party.

His political base has collapsed.

You know, I think what you heard was pretty raw.

And people were willing to forgive him some of the past stories that have surfaced.

big of an issue was the Nazi tattoo that he had on his chest?

So what do you even say to this?

Look, we've seen example after example of the president sort of minimizing affordability as an issue for Americans, and Americans elected him to work on this issue.

And instead, we get a war that people are deeply opposed to that has been kind of a disaster from the standpoint of his implementation.

And we get, you know, ballrooms and we get reflecting pools and we get, you know, golf course tours on Sunday and a president who seems more interested in creating monuments to himself than dealing with the fundamental problem that people elected him to do.

So he is really damaging himself here.

And you see it in his polling numbers.

People do not believe that he is focused on the things that are most important in their lives.

So what does all this mean to him, David? How meaningful is it when he sees those images without crowds?

But I guess maybe from a cost breakdown, and any rules of thumb of from net worth from your clients, what you've seen from them, or, like, how much do they spend on each trip? I, 'cause I hear from a lot of people in our group, a, a vacation for a family of four could be 10, 20 grand easily right there.

A, a five-star vacation would be 20 grand, say, a week-long trip for a family of four.

Obviously, it depends on time of year and destination, but I would say that's the lower threshold for a five-star trip.

Now, of course, you don't have to go five-star, but a simple way to think about the cost of it is, okay, a five-star hotel is around $1,000 a night to start, and family of four, you need two rooms, and then you wanna add some tours and transportation, and that can add up to around the same amount that all of the accommodations is.

That can add up pretty quickly.

And then there's really no upper limit.

It's hard to just say, "This is how much a luxury trip costs," because if you're going to the Amalfi Coast in July or if you're chartering a yacht in the Caribbean over festive, those are just...

... just call it out for what it is.

And I'm wondering what you think the value of the brand of America has represented, the actual value in terms of, you know, policy and politics and getting shit done around the world, and if you see a way back from it.

Well, look, I think the American brand has been, you know, flawed as we are because we're human and, um, we haven't, you know, w-we haven't, uh, always, uh, lived up to our best ideals.

Uh, but we've done awfully well compared to the, you know, other societies in the long march of, of history.

And, um, and it's reflected honestly in our success that, you know, w- the, the-- one of the tragedies of the last few years is the degree to which, uh, immigrants have been demonized.

There's always been a sense that America's a place where you can make it, and we'll have the freedom to make it.

And, um, now we are basically, uh, instead of that great inscription at the base of the Statue of Liberty, you feel like she, instead of a torch, should be holding out her hand and telling people not to come.

That is a s- very destructive impulse, and it certainly undermines, uh, it undermines our brand.

Well, to your point, they need to get 51%

Do you agree with that?

Well, first of all, let me say I lived by this principle during my 25 years as a political strategist.

You're never as smart as you look when you win and you're never as dumb as you look when you lose.

Okay, so let's start with that premise.

The second is that autopilot and resort are of limited use because we live in a dynamic political environment and things change very rapidly and there are unique circumstances surrounding Every election and the third is this is just the Democratic National Committee delaying the release of a report only creates more interest in it and they created a month.

rather than just releasing what I think has some useful points and is in many ways a flawed report.

Here's what I do believe.

Seeing his waffling on this issue, David, do you think Ken Martin should stay on in his role as the Democratic National Committee chair?

Um, again, coming at this with a, a, a very biased progressive perspective, to me it seems the last 18 months have done more to tarnish the American brand than at any time in my not so short life, and I'm wondering what you think the value of the brand of America has represented, the actual value in terms of, you know, policy and politics and getting shit done around the world, and if you see a way back from it.

Well, look, I think the American brand has been, you know, flawed as we are because we're human and, um, we haven't, you know, w-we haven't, uh, always, uh, lived up to our best ideals.

Uh, but we've done awfully well compared to the, you know, other societies in the long march of, of history.

And, um, and it's reflected honestly in our success that, you know, w-the, the-- one of the tragedies of the last few years is the degree to which, uh, immigrants have been demonized.

There's always been a sense that America's a place where you can make it and will have the freedom to make it.

And, um, now we are basically, uh, instead of that great inscription at the base of the Statue of Liberty, you feel like she, instead of a torch, should be holding out her hand and telling people not to come.

That is a s- very destructive impulse, and it certainly undermines, uh, it undermines our brand, and there are many other ways in which that is true.

Well, to your point, they need to get 51%.

What about, what did you make of what happened in Maine? 'Cause that seems to be sort of indicative of a shift in the party, a shift in what people are looking for, maybe a sense that the Senate leadership or the establishment is, at least in that race, had not, was not in touch with what the voters wanted.

There are a lot of factors here.

One is that I think we're in an anti-establishment moment, and that's true in both parties.

Um, I, I think there is a real jaundice about the status quo.

You know, I mentioned earli- you know, 70% of people in polling say the system is, is, is rigg- is corrupt and rigged against them.

I think there is a, a, a sense that Washington...

You know, when...

Is a message around affordability enough? Does it need to be bigger than that? What do you think Democrats should be saying?