Daniel, today at least fairly benign weather-wise.

Yeah, generally pretty settled.

We are seeing a bit of cloud developing across large parts of the state, particularly out in the west and the far east.

Uh, out in the far west, you might be able to squeeze out a couple light showers, uh, later this afternoon and evening, sort of Horsham northwards, uh, heading up through the Mallee and up towards Mildura.

Not looking at any major totals.

Maybe if you got a cell of showers sit right over you, you might be able to get two or three meters, but otherwise I'd say generally less than one.

It's gonna be pretty patchy as well, uh, so I would imagine not too many people will be getting rainfall out there.

So I know we're still more than a week out from, from that system, but just looking at the Bureau's, uh, rainfall predictor map that does incorporate next Friday, I suppose it looks like r- right across the state, sort of southern and northeast areas, uh, twenty-five millimeters plus and then sort of fifteen to twenty-five for almost all other areas.

How are we looking around Victoria this lunchtime? Look, it's meant to be quite a period of same-same, but there is a bit of cloud around today.

Yeah, there is a bit of cloud.

It's mostly high-level cloud, so certainly nothing falling from it.

Pretty thin, sort of what we call cirriform cloud.

But yeah, not really expecting any rainfall coming out of it.

And then you'll be getting a bit more sunshine basically each day as you go through the next five days or so.

Temperatures aren't, you know, anything to write home about, still generally mild but we just slowly build up each day and that's all because we've got a high pressure system sitting smack bang over Tassie right now and that's going to shift into the Tasman Sea over the coming days and it's just going to park itself there and not move for about a week or so.

Yeah, not

It's hot and it's sunny out there.

Yeah, pleasant day for large parts of Victoria.

There's a little bit of high clouds streaming over, but most places seeing some sunshine and, yeah, fairly mild temperatures.

If I look down into southwest, you know, somewhere like Warrnambool Airport, that's sitting at 22.

Go up in the far north, Swan Hill, seeing around 29 right now.

Even up in the northeast, Wodonga's sitting around 21 degrees or so.

So generally into the 20s or above for most places in the state.

So not a huge amount of rain, but a bit of action in terms of weather, a bit of a few different changes and systems coming through over the next few days.

What can you tell me?

Yeah, I'll run through the flood warnings and we'll talk about some of the rainfall totals.

So obviously we do have that moderate for Lanakuri and also at the Betbet Creek.

For the Loddon River, we got a couple of other miners out as well.

The Avoca at Charlton, that's about to get back up to the minor level.

The Ye River and Hughes Creek are seeing near minor level rises.

Seven Creeks at Yaroa.

And I suppose then as we move through, what's the forecast looking like?

Yeah.

Yeah, as you head through there, sort of 20 to 35 millimetres broadly, some of that is still falling.

And then, yeah, as you mentioned, Shepparton, we haven't picked up too much yet, just a few spits.

It's definitely on its way.

It's kind of heading through the central ranges right now where the bulk of the rainfall is.

And, yeah, there's still well and truly more to come.

As for where we're expecting the most rainfall, it will generally be over your northern plains and then heading up into your northeastern alpine ranges.

How do we move through the week then with beyond the rain in the forecast there, Daniel?

How are we looking for the rest of today and into the weekend for Victoria?

Yeah, so that patchy cloud is gonna hang about large parts of the west and south in particular.

Uh, we could be seeing a couple little sprinkles of rainfall coming in mainly across the west and south.

What we've already seen so far today, not a whole lot, but, uh, down in the Otways, Benwerrin, two point six millimeters since midnight.

Uh, Wilsons Prom picked up two point six.

Mount Cowley, two point six.

Wangaratta, two millimeters.

And any warnings for the weekend that we need to keep an eye on or, or for the rest of today, Daniel?

What can you tell us about the peak as it moves to Wangaratta? When's that likely to hit, do you know?

Yeah, we m- we may have already seen it.

If you have a look on the, uh, hydrograph on the website, you will see it's quite flattened out a bit, so we, we could have already seen it.

But it's, yeah, we might get a little bit come down from one of the, the nearby creeks and tributaries that, uh, could just knock it up that little bit, but it's gonna be very close to major if we do see a little bit more come in.

As for the, uh, Loddon, a major, uh, upstream of Lanacurie, we're expecting that to get downgraded to moderate.

We saw that peak at, uh, Bet Bet Creek right at the major level, and I believe there's not too many people affected by it up there.

So that's, that's dropped below the major, so we will see that updated and go down to moderate to come in line with, uh, some other parts of the Loddon.

Thank you.

But where it has fallen, there are some mighty large figures.

Yeah, the one that takes the cake, if we sort of do two-day rainfall totals, although most of it is in the last 24 hours, Mount Buffalo, 172.6 millimetres, that's one that often leads the charge.

So broadly up in that north-eastern part of the state, sort of from Strathbogie up towards, let's call it the Alpine Resorts, you've sort of seen 70 to 120, I would say, with a couple breaking the 150 mark, like that Mount Buffalo area.

Also Charnwood, Strathbogie North, 137.

But yeah, East Gippsland, they have missed out.

It is on the way for them.

We're going to see this low-pressure system start to move through Bass Strait, then out into the Tasman Sea.

Yeah, and so how does the forecast move from here? Are we expecting much more in the way of rainfall this week?

What can you tell me about today as these clouds move across parts of the state?

Yeah, look, patchier cloud across most of the state is what we're looking at.

Bit thicker as you head into the northeast and the southwest.

There's kind of a slightly thinner band stretching from, you know, northwestern Victoria around to probably Wilson's Prom.

But yeah, a partly cloudy day for most places in the state.

We are looking at a couple of showers skimming across the southwest right now.

They've started to make it into places like Portland and Dartmoor.

But how's it looking for this rainfall event?

What's the weather looking like around the state? Clearing up a bit?

Yeah, it is clearing up a bit.

There is still a, a couple of showers on the radar, so some going through sort of, uh, western parts of the central district, so down towards Geelong and a little bit sort of north of Ballarat.

Um, we also see a, a more extensive band of showers heading through sort of southern and central Gippsland, so through the Latrobe Valley, uh, and also coming into Inverloch and areas like that.

Uh, in the last, I guess, three or so hours, we've seen seven mils at Yarragon, five point six in the Latrobe Valley.

That's where the highest falls have been.

Generally elsewhere across the south, it's mostly under a millimeter with, uh, a few places like Port Fairy picking up one point four.

And how are the rivers in northeast Victoria looking?

What was the rest of the state like?

Yeah, when we saw that front come through on Saturday, we did see some pretty significant rainfall, fairly short-lived heavy falls and also some pretty gusty winds.

There were quite a few thunderstorms that rolled through the north, so we did have a few severe thunderstorm warnings out for damaging winds as that rolled through.

If we sort of look at the two-day rainfall totals up until now, Mount Bull has done the most, 94.2 millimetres, And broadly up in that northeast, you're looking at sort of 25 to 50 millimetres with a couple of outliers around your peaks like Mount Bulla, elsewhere in the state, two-day rainfall total.

Sort of across the west, 20 to 5 millimetres, 4.4 at Mildura.

Then if you go down to Port Ferry, 25 millimetres.

So as you move more south, you've got more rainfall.

Anything else you'd like to add before I let you go, Daniel?

How's it looking around the rest of the state?

Yeah, still, and foggy in some parts.

If you're down sort of heading into Gippsland, that fog has started to clear out through parts of the Latrobe Valley, but around Phillip Island area, still sitting in plenty of fog.

And also, if you're in, like, Yei or Alexandra, it's still foggy.

It's been foggy for about two days there, and I think this is unfortunately going to continue well into the afternoon, so you might have to wait until possibly even later than lunchtime tomorrow for that fog to finally shift, but...

Elsewhere, it's looking relatively clear.

We have seen a few tiny spots of drizzly showers out of some of that fog and low cloud that was around Gippsland, so Yarragons picked up 0.6mm, but otherwise it's been pretty much dry, and that's how we're expecting the rest of the day to continue.

And are you still concerned about river rises up in the northeast?

Another pretty stable day today.

Yeah, very settled.

We're still seeing some fog lying around in a couple of places.

We've got some down in the southwest that's around kind of Mort Lake and Warrnambool.

That's just starting to burn off, so it's sort of lifting and then coming back down at times, so I think that'll lift in the next hour or two.

There's also some fog up towards Chuka and Kerrang and places like that.

It's just cleared out of Swan Hill, but I reckon that one will be a little bit more difficult to shift, and there's also some fog sort of north of the Yarra Valley up through places like Yey, that one just being in the valley, that one's going to really struggle to clear out so there could still be some gloomy clouds hanging over there well into the afternoon but elsewhere we're looking at fairly clear skies, there's a little bit of cloud about the south and not much in the way of shower activity and that's really what we're going to see for the next couple of days.

So nothing in the way of warnings at the moment just a fairly stable few days?

Has the rain largely left us yet, or is it still floating around areas of the state?

Still is floating around a bit.

The heaviest falls we're seeing right now are down in Gippsland on the last three hours, but looks picked up 12 millimetres, same as Pound Creek, which is a station just sort of east of Inverloch.

So generally down in that western South Gippsland area.

are broadly, I would say, in the last three hours, about 5 to 10 millimetres down there.

There's also a little bit heading up towards the Yarra Ranges, but we are broadly on the easing trend, Warwick, so I don't think we're going to see much more up in the north-east and sort of central ranges where we're seeing a lot of those flooding impacts and that's really come from a huge amount of rainfall.

If you want some figures that are going to struggle to be beaten, Mount Buffalo Chalet in the last four days, 252.4 millimetres.

So, yeah, we've heard from you loud and clear, Gippslanders, but I want you to keep talking to us because they're not wonderful figures down your way, right? So, Daniel, then as we move forward, what are we looking at as we move through the rest of today into the weekend?

okay take us through what's what's still to come and what's in the forecast for us

yeah so plenty more still to come in the northeast we are starting to see conditions sort of easing uh through that kind of you know Charleston through to Bendigo area.

A few lighter showers might still continue, but it's really northeast focus for the remainder of the day.

We could still be seeing another 50 millimetres or so in some of the places as you get up into the high country, maybe more around 30 millimetres for places like Wangaratta, Dookie, Rubber Glen, stuff like that.

But as you get up into those Alps, definitely another 50 millimetres is possible, maybe even a bit more.

So we do have quite a few warnings out up in that area of the state.

In terms of the rainfall that's going to lead to some of these warnings, we do have a flood watch for the Upper Murray and Mitamita Rivers, Ovens and King Rivers, Broken River, Broken Creek, Severn and Castle Creeks, and the Goulburn River from Eildon to Seymour.

Can you sort of combine them and share them to those areas so everyone knows what's going on?

Has that been widespread? It's

mainly been sort of through the central ranges and heading up into the high country.

So Lancefield's picked up about 6mm.

Puckapunyil's picked up 10 or so at the military base there.

Strathbogie's leading the charge with just under 12mm, seen at 11.8 at one of our gauges there.

That's starting to head up into sort of your Wangaratta area, places like Brighton, Merhulford, they'll be seeing the showers picking up.

in the next couple of hours or so.

What are we looking at each day?

What's it like around the state?

Yeah well it definitely is still foggy in quite a large area of the state.

It's a bit hard to pick on the satellite image as to what actually is just very low cloud or fog but I'll broadly say sort of from around maybe Ngambi up through possibly to Kerang, Swan Hill, down through Hopetoun and Tennille sort of in a bit of a horseshoe shape they might still be the locations where you're seeing fog on the ground.

I'm sure there is a couple of other patches that are just being a bit stubborn elsewhere.

But yeah, these foggy conditions up north in the morning, they'll likely be a repeat offender over the coming days.

We've got a large high-pressure system sitting pretty much smack bang over the centre of Tassie, which is leading to these very settled conditions, and it's not going to be moving anywhere anytime soon.

So basically what you get today will be what you get tomorrow for a large part of the state.

Are we talking significant amounts of rain if it's a tropical system connecting up down here?

Is that how the rest of Victoria is sitting at the moment?

Yeah, most of Victoria is looking at cloudy skies at the moment.

There are a few patches where you'll be able to see a bit of sun sort of up towards Warricknabill and Charlton and even down more in central parts near Geelong or so.

But yeah, mostly cloudy for the day is how we're looking.

But we could see a very light spot along the ranges.

Nothing too significant, just a bit of a drizzly shower in the afternoon, early evening.

But the real significant rainfall.

But, yeah, from there, as you say, with those storms, it could be much more.

That's the first time ever Yarram has been the warmest place in

Victoria.

Just a quick update.

They've just been equalled by Mildura.

Oh, that makes sense.

I think Mildura will overtake them as we speak, Warwick, but it did have the highest temperature in the state for about half an hour or so.

But I think, yeah, Mildura, we're looking at a top of 23 today.

at nerong northeast victoria just wondering about the forecast for saturday and early next week just wondering whether i start putting floaties on my sheep before rain go the dons this weekend time to get james heard back says jack jack that's uh that's an interesting take i hope the rain takes uh better for you than your controversial don's opinion um but uh so nerong sort of we'd say rutherglen really that sort of area of the northeast victoria what's he looking at daniel

What can you tell us?

Yeah, it's definitely come in in the southwest.

We saw things pick up overnight down at Warrnambool in sort of the 24 hours up to 9am.

They managed to pick up 42.4 millimetres.

Also down the coast there, Nullar War, 47.4.

The real standout, Wilson's Prom, 84.2 it managed to pick up overnight and through the early morning.

That's actually a June record for Wilson's Prom, which is somewhat surprising.

well there you go anonymous texter if you catch a tuna i want a photo back on our text line send it through daniel take us through the rest of the forecast period then what's it looking like tomorrow and beyond

So it shows you there's a bit around.

Yeah, so we'll crack on with the warning.

So yeah, that minor flood warning has just come out for the Kiwa River at Bandiana.

So we could see that get up to the minor level that's overnight tonight with some of the rainfall that we have already seen, plus a little bit more coming today.

so yeah if you're in that area that's something to be aware of not looking at anything getting too major or anything like that just sticking at minor for now but there is more rain on the way.

The other warnings we have out is a damaging wind warning that broadly extends across the southwest coast slightly east of Warrnambool out to about Lorne or so along the southwest and then it also extends over the Mornington Peninsula down the Bass Coast towards Wilsons Prom and also up along the Alpine Ranges.

So we're seeing those winds pick up in the southwest at the moment.

So I better get you moved through the forecast for the rest of the week.