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Daniel Richards

Director at Maritime Strategies International (MSI), a London-based shipping market analyst specializing in container shipping economics, forecasting, and market analysis.

Aug 13, 2026

0:30
Could you give an overview of what has happened in the first half of this year?
0:33
It's, in many respects, quite similar to what we saw a few years ago with the initial phases of the sort of Red Sea crisis.
0:41
So the container market started the year in generally pretty subdued fashion.
0:47
That obviously was, uh, coincident with the liner companies generally returning to being not profitable, only slightly profitable, and that followed on from a relatively weak period for markets at the end of 2025.
1:00
You did see a bit of an increase in spot freight rates in the run-up to, uh, the Lunar New Year in China, but thereafter it seemed that the industry was s- heading back into a relatively weak period for markets, and that even before supply was expected to ramp up again in 2027 and beyond.
1:22
Now, in practice, events have conspired to, uh, generate a far more profitable market for liner companies, a far more volatile market for beneficial cargo owners and shippers.
1:35
And the initial catalyst for this was the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

10 MINS LATER

11:37
Uh, when does this actually come back to sort of bite the sector?
8:11
Could you give an overview of what has happened in the first half of this year?
8:15
It's, in many respects, quite similar to what we saw a few years ago with the initial phases of the Red Sea crisis.
8:23
So the container market started the year in generally pretty subdued fashion.
8:28
That obviously was, uh, coincident with the liner companies generally returning to being not profitable, only slightly profitable, and that followed on from a relatively weak period for markets at the end of 2025.
8:41
You did see a bit of an increase in spot freight rates in the run-up to, uh, the Lunar New Year in China.
8:49
But thereafter it seemed that the industry was s- heading back into a relatively weak period for markets, and that even before supply was expected to ramp up again in 2027 and beyond.
9:04
Now, in practice, events have conspired to generate a far more profitable market for liner companies, a far more volatile market for beneficial cargo owners and shippers.

10 MINS LATER

19:19
Uh, when does this actually come back to sort of bite the sector?
8:35
Looking at the Bering Strait, that narrow gap between Alaska and the Far Eastern tip of Russia, there were just six hundred and seventy transits by vessels of all kinds last year, and just over one hundred voyages were undertaken for the full length of the Northern Sea Route.
8:53
You can break down the users into three categories.
8:56
So the first is simply Russian coastal shipping, so serving communities, the ports, the industries along the Arctic coast.
9:03
The second is the shipping of hydrocarbons.
9:06
So Russia has extensive unused natural gas and crude oil reserves.
9:11
What the shrinkage of the Arctic sea ice has meant is that these hydrocarbons, they are now being shipped in greater volumes, and for the moment, this is kind of the main use.
9:20
The third category, and here you're looking at container ships.

7 MINS LATER

16:52
And what are the risks that they see? Is this a geopolitical issue, or is it economic viability doesn't really stack up yet?

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