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Dan Wang

Dan Wang

China analyst and author of Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future; formerly China director at Eurasia Group and technology analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, now a research fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution.

Oct 21, 2026

7:38
Uh, but I think the question that a lot of people do have is, is the country effectively exporting some of its domestic economic problems by relying increasingly on overseas markets because its own domestic market, which is huge, 1.4 billion people, um, is not feeling confident and is not feeling like they can spend?
8:03
Uh, this is unfortunately the new growth model of China.
8:07
It's not, uh, technically fundamentally different from before because in the past 40 years, uh, in most years, China was relying on domestic construction, uh, real estate investment, so it s- it was investment-driven model.
8:24
And since five years ago, the new model, which is based on more investment into the high-tech sector, still very much focusing on building up the domestic supply chain, not overseas investment.
8:39
So it's still a investment-driven economy, but the fundamental difference about this model is that it no longer relies on the domestic demand.
8:49
It is by nature expansionary.
8:52
The rest of the world will be the main buyer for Chinese products.

7 MINS LATER

15:29
So I'm wondering what that change might mean for Australia.
9:08
I mean, are these a- accusations, in your view, um, founded?
9:14
Uh, the two countries are giving very different opinions regarding those issues.
9:21
For China, this is actually a feature of the economy, of China's economic model.
9:26
The state subsidy were quite substantial in the first 30 years of Chinese reform era.
9:32
That's from the 1980s all the way to the late 2010s.
9:37
But since then, um, the subsidies directly coming from the state has been receding.
9:42
But overall, for the exports going to Europe, they're actually selling at the highest premium globally.

5 MINS LATER

15:16
When it looks at what's going on with Trump, does it see countries like Germany and the whole EU as rather timid in the way they do things?
2:22
Where is China at with respect to actually managing to fill the void from what you're seeing?
2:28
Well, it's safe to say that none of those companies are even close to Nvidia or any of the big seven in the US.
2:34
But the fact is China is producing some of the world's best technology companies and that momentum is very clear.
2:42
And more companies are getting listed in Hong Kong rather than in mainland because for global investors, it's still safer, much safer to put their money in the Hong Kong stock market since it's an open market.
2:53
And in mainland, it's still mostly the institutional investors onshore and also the retail investors.
2:59
So I think the support from the policy side is quite clear.
3:04
But I don't think the kind of momentum we saw last year, like this kind of a jump up, could sustain very much longer if China doesn't find a good outlet for actually the application of those technology outside of China.
6:08
But where is the consumer at and how much do we need to see that addressed in order for China to feel that it is able to compete with the U.S.?

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