And I do think there's a chance if he gets to free agency, he would get that kind of contract.

Yeah, that's probably true.

I would say if you're looking at if you are Quentin Nelson, is there a better place you would land than Seattle? I'm not sure, especially if you're probably looking at what's going to be, you know, you're going to be 31 in March.

Is this probably your last big contract? Are you going to get a better fit than the Seahawks right now? I'm not totally sure.

Are you only looking to be making money? Obviously, these are things that Quinn Nelson is going to have to think of.

But I think...

when we see some of these trades and going in there i think this does give seattle certainly a leg up if there is success throughout uh the second half of this season that you're more likely to be uh making yourself welcoming to quentin nelson possibly taking less even or at the market value and if you you get a contract done now you start to spread it out instead of just a you know, free agency deal where you're starting from year one, where all that, you know, signing bonus has to start what it is.

His success

Are you in more of the Nate Tice camp, or how did you see just the first three weeks and what's happened since?

Yeah, I think it was a little bit of both, I think.

And, you know, that's always the...

Usually the answer when it's either or.

It's usually a little bit of both, not always the most exciting answer.

But I think there were certainly things, like, especially when you go back to the Seattle game, where it opens up and it's a lot of, like, just short, safe passes.

We know what Seattle is going to do.

I'm going to restrain myself and let you go and just sit here with an invisible straitjacket because I could go for another hour talking to myself about this coaching matchup.

Are you in more of the Nate Tice camp, or how did you see just the first three weeks and what's happened since?

Yeah, I think it was a little bit of both, I think.

And, you know, that's always the...

Usually the answer when it's either or.

It's usually a little bit of both, not always the most exciting answer.

But I think there were certainly things, like, especially when you go back to the Seattle game, where it opens up and it's a lot of, like, just short, safe passes.

We know what Seattle is going to do.

and at some point we'll get the ah drake you know what i mean like just that i think it's more of a gut feel thing um but i i think i just have to honor my own argument when it was working to prop up drake may at a time when he was low and also make sure we don't pop him up too high when obviously he's playing as well as anybody that man is fourth in qbr by the way for how that first three weeks of the season went caleb williams is third also uh they might be four five or three four but point is they're both playing very well okay chess match but i i'm gonna restrain myself and let you go and just sit here with a invisible straight jacket because i could just go i could go for another hour talking to myself about this coaching matchup

Things are not looking good for this Chargers team.

yeah it's it's tough because a lot of the things you were expecting to go well just kind of really haven't justin herbert he's he's still like made some throws and there's you know the most like chargers things there was a pass yesterday where uh a receiver like basically broke up a pass that was intended for another open receiver uh the interception he threw was off of david joku's chest We have those things that are just not going well, but then the operation just doesn't look like it's smooth.

A ton of false starts for them.

And the things that you were kind of hoping that Mike McDaniel would be able to help, they had the hope in the run game would at least be able to... cover up the interior offensive line, but that has just been a mess that they haven't been able to, to get around.

And that's just, it seems like, uh, the, they just, they can't get around that.

And it's not.

The schematically just it's, it's a weakness and it's something that's just a detriment to the entire offense.

Do you think the, the giants are sort of like could potentially be live in this game?

What has been the biggest thing that has stood out to you, not just in today's loss, but even going back to last week as well? Two weeks now underperforming for the Chargers.

Yeah, I mean, all parts of them are underperforming.

What worries me more long-term is the defense, which has just been giving up some chunk plays, has not looked good in communication, got beat by a couple big plays by Raiders wide receivers today, which you should never really be getting beat big by Raiders wide receivers.

So how this defense looks constructed is what's worrying me like full for the full length of the rest of the season.

The offense, it's still sloppy, but I think there's still some pieces that look like it should.

You know, I think Justin Herbert had a couple really nice passes.

He had one that was a pass defense by his own player.

Who in your mind wins this NFC North division?

And judging by these early returns, Stan, I'm of the belief that he will be a big part of their offense.

Yeah.

And he, and he kinda has to, right? Because they got rid of the other wide receivers where they were going, you know, four or five deep last year at times.

Uh, but they need Golden and, and Watson to be like kind of those outside receivers 'cause they still ran a bunch of 12 personnel, uh, i- in that game and it was, you know, they were moving around, uh, Golden and Watson, but those were the two guys who were, who were out there most of the time.

So I, I've, I've always liked Golden.

I liked him as a prospect.

I, I thought he would get a little more, um...

[laughs]

And I have to think that factored into this as well.

right yeah that's where i came down on this and that feels like where that's the biggest indictment of him and his place in this competition where he just he seems like the exact same quarterback that he was last year and that's and that's also not a playable quarterback which it gets into how bad this competition was to begin with where if he is going to hold on to the ball as long as he has he's still averaging over three seconds to throw In his preseason snaps, which is one of the things that was last year, he had the longest time to throw in the league, just holding the ball, try to wait for something to happen.

And he does have a little bit of that athleticism, but not enough to be an entirely off script type of quarterback.

And he does not have the just kind of overall athleticism.

ability and arm talent to make those types of plays work so he's playing against himself it would make sense a lot more sense for him to be this kind of quick hitting uh spread the ball out type of quarterback that's just not the way he wants to play and if he's never going to lean into that then he's not going to be a viable quarterback either uh which is again if you're just kind of looking at it in that way that we don't want to waste our time with shador then it makes sense you would go in another direction.

But the fact that the other direction is Deshaun Watson, who I think has also had similar things.

He does get the ball out a little quicker, but also if there's any type of, not even pressure, just like a body around him, his operation completely just... falls apart and i think we saw that a lot against buffalo i think he like his mobility is kind of zapped like he he doesn't move well either um i don't think he has the same arm talent that he used to either and even like watson's best throw uh against the bills was this dig to malachi corley that he leaves short and corley had to dive for it would have been a huge if He puts it where it should be.

And I continue to wonder who's going to catch those on this Raiders team.

It's a lot of youth there to me.

Yeah, that's certainly fair.

I do have a little more optimism for what I think Raritan's development outlook could be, because I do think he played some of these more pro-style sets at Notre Dame.

especially off play action.

He was asked to block in those sets more than a receiving tight end would.

And I do think he can at least be competent in blocking.

And I think that's a big thing for a rookie tight end.

Check responses, setup required, compatibility and availability varies 18 plus.

I'm at an eight and a half.

Yeah.

I'd, I'd probably say about the seven.

Um, the, the, the edge depth is definitely concerning.

I think schematic-wise, and this is kinda one of the things that was interesting about them last year, and I kinda wonder what it is like, has been like i- in training camp because I remember when I, uh, wrote the Patriots chapter for the, um, ESPN Almanac this year.

The, the thing that stood out to me is just how much this defense changed, you know, just kinda throughout the different sections of the year, where they were not very blitz-heavy the first part of the season.

Uh, then they leaned into it a little more after the, their bye, and then in the playoffs they just, like, turned full Brian Flores.

Grab a Pepsi Zero Sugar today.

What's your opinion on this Houston Texans team, and how much are these injuries sort of scaring you, or are they not scaring you at all?

Yeah, probably somewhere in the middle there.

I'm high on the Texans.

I think when you have any team where they have a unit that could easily be the best in the league, I think you do have to consider them one of the favorites in the conference, especially.

And I think that's what we have with the defense here.

I think we have, you know, year to year, defense is not always... as it doesn't translate from year to year as much as offense does.

But I think we've seen over the, especially like the past two years, we've seen some of the top defenses be able to hold on.

um i want to uh let's move on and talk about the patriots defense because there's a little bit of a discrepancy here um there was a post i forget who who mentioned it um i think it was shiel kapati i believe is his name probably not the wrong apologies for that but uh he mentioned the patriots defense was third in epa per drive but 23rd in dvoa and the seven of the 14 quarterbacks they played last year are actually not starting this year so um Where is this Patriots defense? Are they more so the third in EPA per drive, or are they the 23rd in DVOA? Are they somewhere in the middle? Talk to me about this Patriots defense.

Who is the team right now that is not being talked about enough, that is on your radar, that catches your eye and maybe like dings the light bulb and says, "Hmm, I'm buying them for 2026"? You have one for me?

Yeah.

Uh, so I, I just finished work on the 2026 FDN Almanac, which, uh, came out last week, and the team that we have projected as the best team in the AFC and the, I guess second-best by mean wins, is the Houston Texans.

And that is a team that I think plays in a, a tougher division than we would think.

I know we remember how, how good the, the Jaguars were last year too.

But the Texans, and I think we all also as a public look at what that playoff run was for that offense and C.J. Stroud.

But when we look forward of what we can expect for this team, it's going to be a great defense again, probably one of the top three in the league.

If there's a team that we're looking to sell for 2026, the floor is yours.

But to me, I can see the logic and I think it makes sense.

Yeah.

So I think we have to start with probably what I would think would be the most surprising for most people.

And that was the projection for the Houston Texans, which as a team that comes out second in average wins, there was an early projection that I was sent that had Houston first in average Mean wins very early in the offseason before some more things were added in.

So they are right now the best team that they have in the AFC.

Projected to be third in total DVOA with a top 10 offense.

And that is something where I think a lot of people probably did not pay close attention to the Houston Texans throughout the regular season.

Okay.

What is the number you have for them?

All right.

So I'm gonna...

It's kind of like an off-field number, but I think it kinda shapes what the Dolphins are this year, and 59.6% of their salary cap is dead money this year.

And I think we gotta get carried away with dead money a little bit, and usually individually it's not as bad as a lot of people try to make it out to be.

But this is the highest rate, uh, since, d- easily the highest rate since 2013.

Have a table in the chapter.

Mm

What is the one number you have here to help explain this Buffalo Bills team?

Yeah, so the one that stood out to me, and it's kind of a last year thing that's going to shape this year, is Josh Allen saw the highest rate of man coverage among all quarterbacks in the league.

And we typically don't see that one against good quarterbacks and two against mobile quarterbacks.

Because when you're in man coverage, a lot of defensive backs are going to turn the back that allows the quarterbacks to run a little bit.

But...

there were zero receivers that scared any opposing defense last year.

Um, and so Alan was 19th in yards per drop back against man coverage.

What's the number you got for the Vikings?

Mm.

So how he develops I think is going to be important for the Lions philosophically, 'cause it's how much do they wanna be running 11 personnel.

They brought in Drew Petzing to be the offensive coordinator.

And he's someone in Arizona who was running a lot of, you know, 12 and 13.

Probably would've run even more 13 last year if Tip Reiman, uh, did not get hurt.

So this is something where I expect them to, to want to lean into 12 personnel a little more.

When you look at what Jahmyr Gibbs has been as a runner, he's been a much better runner out of 11 personnel because of that spacing.

Good one

Mm-hmm.

And so I, I also went back and, and wrote about him, like, after he got released.

And a- again, I, I agree that we kinda talk about Kyler Murray in the wrong way.

If you look at, like, his EPA per play and access rate over the past five years, it's, like, already higher than, like, the Sam Darnolds, the, uh, like the Bakers, the, like Daniel Jones.

And that is with those players', like, reclamation years already built in.

So Murray is already starting at, at least where they were, and then he has now this offensive structure that I think can certainly help him.

Uh, to go back to the, uh, the structure of the offense.

[chuckles]

What compelled you to write the piece?

Yeah, I think what compelled me to, to write the piece is basically what you said.

One is that this is a very strange draft, where we do not have the perceived premium positions being the top guys in this draft.

There's one quarterback that might be taken in the first round, and that's the guy that's gonna go first overall.

Maybe there's a second, but no one's gonna be really excited, uh, about that.

Even the top S rush- edge rushers, a guy like Arvel Reese, number two, might be better as an off-ball linebacker.

So there's just-- It's a very specific draft class that we haven't really gotten.

Are, are any positions in the current NFL decreasing in value?

First, flat out, what do you think of his decision? Did it sur- surprise you? Where are you at on it?

Yeah, like, a, a little bit.

I, I think it all kind of plays together because I wouldn't be surprised if them putting the tag on Jones does mean they're much closer to an extension with Pierce.

It, it kinda feels like if you put the transition tag on Jones, you're not really worried about-Another team coming in and, and making an offer.

Uh, and, and I kind of feel like if they had let Jones get to free agency, they probably wouldn't have been too worried about another team making an offer there either.

So it feels like they're-- they didn't need to put the tag on Pierce, is how I'm going to read this, and maybe I'm giving the Colts front office a little too much credit by, by that reading.

But it does feel like they might be closer to an extension with Pierce, which then opened up the tag for Jones in-instead of like the other way around and, and choosing Jones here.

Yeah.

Every reason that we thought this team could be, and this offense could be, like, a top 10 unit, quarterback agnostic, I, I think a lot of that does still hold.

Yeah, and I, I think there, there might be some more questions about what this receiving corps actually looks like.

Like, could Jordan Addison be a trade candidate just because he's heading into the last year on his rookie deal? I'm not sure if T.J.

Hockenson, because of how much his cap hit is, and he hasn't really been the same guy since the ACL tear, like, could he be a trade or release candidate? So I think maybe there are still a few more question marks, but I think Justin Jefferson alone is still, like, the best thing we're going to talk about for a supporting piece in any of these quarterback situations.

Um, so...

And when you go through the cap space, like, if you restructure Jefferson, and there's a couple other moves that the Vikings can do that could easily free up some, some cap space to, to bring in some guys.

And I think there's a lot of...

Yeah.

What kind of problems do you see making that change on the fly with high expectations?

Yeah, I think it doesn't worry me too much because I think there still are a lot, even when you're playing, you know, all four down front.

A lot of these teams are still multiple.

So even though it is, you know, more of a four man rush, we'll still kind of see some of these guys play similar type of opportunities.

of roles uh but i think more of the the talent just going in and out and figuring out what exactly uh is going to be on the edge and who you want to bring in you know they're going to be you know guys like uh kill von chase on who you could kind of bring in like those are the types of players that you know you're probably not going to get a Jalen Phillips to be able to come in.

So just kind of figuring out who is in the right place and having everyone on the same page, what kind of players are going to fit there, I think that is going to be more of... what really makes this Bill's defense work rather than the struggle of bringing in the players.

As long as they can kind of figure that out, I think they can bring in some of those guys.

Running the football, is it making a resurgence, or is it just one of those things that some teams are exploiting to make a couple of wins happen?

Yep

... are using some big slot guys, whether it's Lil'Jordan Humphrey, uh, you know, um, Courtland Sutton played 20% in the slot last week.

That's kinda what I would like to see a little more, and I, I think that is probably where you're going to be able to take advantage.

I don't think you wanna be living outside with Jared Stidham throwing to Courtland Sutton one-on-one with Christian Gonzalez.

That's probably not the, the right way to live if you're trying to scheme up the easiest way to get production.

So I think if you can kinda get some of those bigger bodies in the slot, you know, Marcus Jones is a, a smaller player.

Uh, and, you know, the New England's linebacker has been playing better over the past, especially the past couple weeks in the end of the regular season and especially in the playoffs.

Uh, Sam Darnold, are you gonna get fooled with this one, third time against, uh, this opponent here? Uh, how do you kinda see Sam playing?

What's more interesting to you?

To me, it's the Rams offense, especially there.

Yeah.

Based on what they did against Seattle in the first two meetings and then what the Rams have done the past two weeks.

I've flummoxed, I think, by what Sean McVay has done over the past two weeks.

Is it a three tight end stuff? Is that what you're going to go with? Yeah, yeah.

And the way it's been used, because they did use it more against Carolina, but it wasn't in the passing game where you're targeting the middle of the field.

But you've already done a lot of it for me.

Wow.

And this is...

This is a team that I think if you look at what the DVOA projections were before the season, they were expected to be like 19th.

Right now, they're 30th, and I think also if you look at what they were doing week one...

Week one, they were an exciting team, and it's kind of gone downhill from there.

Uh, this is a team right now, the offensive line looks like a complete disaster.

Uh, they cannot really pass block.

(laughs)

Yeah.

... we are seeing teams just be, one, more aggressive and willing to take shots on trades. And if you ha- if you're a team that has the type of cash space like, you know, a, uh, Chicago or a Washington does right now, taking on a year of salary while only giving up, you know, a day three pick, you know, it is still significant salary they're taking on. But when you have that money, you're probably not going to be spending it that wisely if you do go out in free agency. Um, I, I think that is still going to be... It's a bit of a market inefficiency still where like you, you're not... Even if you do have to take on the Deebo contract, right, if you're Washington, you're not getting that caliber of player in free agency right now. The... Even depending on what Deebo is. We don't have to project the high side of that, and I think it's going to be the same thing, uh, for a guard, because Jonah Jackson, when I did the rankings last year, I think I had him in the 30s somewhere. He was really good in that Detroit season. So he's going to fit with Ben Johnson now. Uh, he is a guy who had some injuries and then kind of fell out of favor. So I, I do think that is a risk worth trying, uh, especially for some familiarity, get a, a younger player in there. So I think we are going to see a few more trades even leading up to free agency and maybe like once free agency starts, uh, because I think that is still the preferred avenue to get some of these, not top tier players-

Like, really good players. I mean, all, with every other group I've been like, "Eh, maybe if he comes off the injury right, he could play." I think I just named a bunch of starters. So, let's start there. I think many of those guys would be starters on good teams. Um, the other thing I will say and the reason I want, I brought it, I wanted to hear you talk about this position group is, I really believe we have seen smart teams pay linebackers 'cause w- it's not a lot of money, so the contract's not huge. The values haven't gone up that much. We'll see how much, uh, Vaught makes. I'm sure he'll... I think he has the ability to reset the market there. But also, because the curve for development for these rookie linebackers, it takes them so long to become good players, you're not really reaping the benefits of the contracts and also the contracts aren't that much cheaper than the veteran contracts. So, I would much rather sign a couple of these guys if I was a playoff team than draft someone in the second or third round and hope that in three or four years they become one of these guys. Are you with me on that and do you like any of these players in particular?

I am, yeah. I especially li- like, when you look at what these, these contracts are, I mean, Roquan Smith right now making $20 million a year, Fred Warner, 19. Uh, but then you jump to the guy who's making, at fourth, Matt Milano is only making 14. Fifth, Patrick Queen was a free agent signing last year at kind of the top of the market only at 13.7. So, there is a significant drop and this is not a position where you are going expensive to even get to really the, the top of the market. The guy that stands out to me that I, that I feel like I still like more than a, a lot of people is Earnest Jones. Um, I think the, the Rams could've used an Earnest Jones-like linebacker last year. I think we saw how he impacted three teams last year, where I think we saw what the Rams were missing with him. We saw him play well in Tennessee during the first half of the season and then we saw him completely change what Seattle's defense could do in the second half of the season, uh, where they went from about average in run defense, uh, EPA per play over the first half, they went to, like, a top five run defense by EPA per play over the second half of the season while he was there. I think he does have some coverage ability when he needs to do that. I... He's a little better, you know, going forward. But just his ability to kind of jump into, you know, he put three teams the past, you know, what, 24 months, um, and was able to really impact what he was able to do, and I think he is that type of just kind of plug and play guy you can put in, in the middle that makes other things on the defense easier, which I think is what we saw in Seattle too, where I think he made... the defensive line's jobs were a little easier-