Can you talk a bit about what polls are telling us today and what we should learn from them, what we shouldn't learn from them? And the last piece would be, because I'm giving you like 12 questions in one, how you see polling sitting cheek by jowl with prediction markets and people who are starting to equate the two.

OK, so let's let's start with just Michigan specifically on this.

So in the poll, the polling average is up until last night.

Abdul had about a four point lead in the average.

Jocelyn Benson is running for governor, had a lead seven to eight points there.

So you have like you have this gap, right, of three to five points, depending on the poll where she is outperforming Abdul.

A Democrat winning Michigan by four points is a great victory.

When you think about what you've seen, what are some of the factors that you think we're paying the wrong set of attentions to and things we're spending money on that made sense in 2008, made sense in 2020, but don't make sense today?

And so what do you make of that?

Yeah, so I think there are a couple of things going on here.

One, I think the entire Trump administration is in a bubble.

They don't really – it's a right-wing media bubble.

It's a bubble of all the billionaires they talk to all the time.

It's the fact that the president has someone in Natalie Harp who just gives them only the news he wants to hear.

So they don't really know what's going on out there.

Do you think that has an impact when somebody like Trump says it? i think

But tell us why you're optimistic.

Yeah.

So I wrote it off a New York Times poll, which basically had the race as a tie, 48-48.

I think Darlene Graham was up by a little bit less than a point.

After Darlene Graham won the nomination, there were a whole bunch of polls that came out that showed the race tied, but it was 43-43 or 44-44.

And that was interesting.

It said a lot about the weakness of Darlene Graham as a candidate, but you still have to get to 50 or at least close to 50.

What do you make of the dynamics there and sort of how it could impact all of the races in Ohio if it could?

Yeah.

'Cause you see it in the questions being asked.

Like, I was just watching clips of Trump's meeting with Zelensky, and all the que- He's getting questions from some reporter, who I presume is from some sort of MAGA-like outlet, that's about the ballroom and whether he's gonna show Zelensky the ballroom, and think of all the questions you could be asking Trump right at this moment, where if there was a reporter from the Associated Press, from Reuters, from Bloomberg, the reporters who would be in every single pool.

Every pool used to have the wire reporters and a print representative, and that print representative would rotate.

Sometimes it'd be The Washington Post, sometimes it'd be New York Times, sometimes it would be Wall Street Journal, sometimes it would be, you know, The Weekly Standard, or s- or Politico or Huffington Post or something like that.

But you were guaranteeing that there were, you know, independent or at least, you know, traditional journalists, non-ideological journalists in the room with the president every time he signed an executive order, he met with a world leader, he opened up the Cabinet meeting, and that is gone.

Yeah

... that was done to largely appease the r- one of the right-wing board members of Warner Brothers Discovery, a man named John Malone, who was sort of the mentor to David Zaslav, who's the head of Warner Brothers Discovery.

So what are the implications for that as we head toward this midterm election cycle, especially with certain maps that have been redrawn by Republicans thinking that the Latino coalition was... from 2024 was going to be permanent.

Yeah, this problem for Republicans is most manifest in Texas, where they did this very aggressive redistricting, trying to lock in their seats and put a lot of Democrats at risk.

And their bet was, even if they didn't get Trump-like numbers of Latinos, Latinos had moved towards Republicans.

They had snapped back dramatically, particularly in Texas.

We saw this in a special election in Texas a few months ago.

It is like it's very concerning for them and a bunch of districts that they thought would be safe for public districts, particularly along the Rio Grande Valley, now are very competitive for Democrats and possible pickups for Democrats.

So, yeah, they miscalculated.

What do you envision

Yeah.

And Darlene Graham is a historically terrible candidate.

You know, there is oftentimes these, you know, history sort of shows that voters are pretty OK with, you know, a spouse, a sister, a friend, you know, who may be unqualified filling in for the interim period.

But they usually will not reelect them.

You saw this with Jeanne Carnahan after she was appointed to after her husband posthumously won the Senate seat in 2000.

The challenge with South Carolina is it's very different than North Carolina in many, many ways, even though it actually has a large percentage of the black vote than North Carolina does.

But like North Carolina has a lot of in-migration, but it's a little more Florida than North Carolina because it's a lot of retirees moving to live there.

Like what what what is that going to make that that could that could mean victory for Democrats in November?

But from your vantage, how does that Senate math look?

Yeah, I think the Senate, as you say, we have to win the Senate.

We have to hold all of our seats, which I'll get to in a second.

We have to win in Maine and North Carolina.

Then we have to win two of them.

iowa alaska ohio and texas all states that trump won by at least 11 points yeah a year ago that seemed impossible now it seems plausible and very possible so that we can get done now we got some work to do to get there because you never would have guessed that we'd be more we'd be more nervous about michigan than maybe texas at this point and you know we have there are some warning signs in new hampshire But the path is there.

The political environment is there.

Yeah.

But from your vantage, how does that Senate math look?

Yeah, I think the Senate, as you say, we have to win the Senate.

We have to hold all of our seats, which I'll get to in a second.

We have to win in Maine and North Carolina.

Then we have to win two of.

Iowa, Alaska, Ohio, and Texas, all states that Trump won by at least 11 points.

Yeah.

Yeah.

If he woke up tomorrow and decided I'm gonna throw it all in for the last 75 days here, would that even make a positive difference in these races?

It's hard to imagine this version of Donald Trump doing the things he would need to do to help Republicans, to be disciplined, to talk about affordability, to come up with a plan to show how he's trying to reduce costs for people.

And it, it speaks to how unpopular he is that he's not campaigning because this is not a Senate race that's taking place in, even in swing states, right? The race for the Senate's taking place all in states that Donald Trump won by double digits.

Yet he is in his low 40s or in some cases in the high 30s in these states.

And so he really can't do much other than spend the money that he has been hoarding in his super PACs, you know, north of a half a billion dollars, that I think to, you know, I think Democratic operatives all around the country are shocked they have not yet spent, 'cause every single day they waste, that money becames, becomes less effective and less efficient.

Well, what's that all about?

Yeah, I thought Jon Ossoff is very talented at finding ways to get attention.

He understands the attention economy.

Yeah

... only get 6% of the vote in a primary in the Upper West Side of Manhattan.

And then you have Alex Vindman, w- to, who was the, you know, he was a very, a very, he was a very, very brave person who stood up and testified against Trump in that impeachment, and then he lost.

And so I do think that this is, that we're s- I kinda think Democrats can see the light at the end of the Trump tunnel here and are s- and so fighting Trump is- Necessary to succeed in Democratic politics, but it's insufficient on its own.

But the second point is we are seeing in a number of races where the candidate who is spending significant less money, im- notably, uh, Angie Nixon here in Florida and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan win despite that.

And there are a couple things going on here.

One, there are ways if you are very, very talented to get your money out, get, to get your message out much cheaper.

Yeah

Yeah

... only get 6% of the vote in a primary in the Upper West Side of Manhattan.

And then you have Alex Vindman, w- to, who was the, you know, he was a ver- uh, he's a very, very brave person who stood up and testified against Trump in that impeachment, and then he lost.

And so I do think that this is the worst.

I kind of think Democrats can see the light at the end of the Trump tunnel here and are s- and so fighting Trump is necessary to succeed in Democratic politics, but it's insufficient on its own.

But the second point is we are seeing in a number of races where the candidate who is spending significant less money, in notably, uh, Angie Nixon here in Florida, and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan win despite that.

And there are a couple things going on here.

Yeah

i do want to talk about the apac thing um i think it's very important um but you know the fact that there seemed to be sort of this you know non-stop effort from the democratic establishment so we have to you know stop abdul sayed at all costs and you just got and you know rachel maddow i think on ms now was saying it was spicy others were saying it was ugly and nasty and so on i was watching it and i i it sort of reminded me a little bit of the obama hillary battle back in 2008 and i saw i i thought i sort of thought people were getting carried away with this but any your thoughts on that and why the establishment was so pissed

at this I look, I think the there was a belief among from Schumer, the DSCC, a lot of folks in Washington that Abdul Saeed was a uniquely vulnerable candidate because he was more left, had said some things about, you know, in 2020 that could easily demagogued.

He had campaigned with Assange Piker.

They believe that he was vulnerable and that the better candidate was Haley Stevens, who I think there is a real – when you look back on it, I think that it's very possible the DSCC picked the wrong candidate.

Picking Michigan as a state with the largest Arab-American population in the country, it is a state that birthed the uncommitted movement emanating from the Biden policy.

Right.

And so they looked at the Schumer, Kirsten Gillibrand, looked at this race and to decide that the best chance to win the primary, because that's what you have to do because they're trying to stop Abdul, was one of the most pro-Israel Democrats in the Congress.

deal with this

Yeah

... assumed that Abdul would run away with this.

Uh, he had a 10-point lead in the polling average.

He'd been as, up by as many as 19 in a poll that came out the, a few days before the election.

Ended up being a nail-biter.

Just about one point went till early Wednesday morning.

And that kind of is a, infected how people think about it, 'cause it s- because, or the expectation was he wins easy, then he'd, he wins a close race, so it's a disappointment.

Yeah.

Yeah.

And some of these Republicans will outrun Trump by at least that.

The reason why they're in a bigger pickle than Harris was is that Biden was...

There was v- there was not a ton of strong enthusiasm for Biden among Democratic voters.

She had a freedom to break with him that these Republicans feel like they do not have, because the, the, there are a couple...

Like, when you look at polls, you can cut these in several ways, right? You can do it by education, race, like we're talking about here.

Another way to do it is you get the Republican sample and you say, "Do you consider yourself a member of the MAGA movement or not?" MAGA voters still love Trump.

Yeah

Mm-hmm

... because there, when you do all the paths, you really need Michigan to get there 'cause, uh, otherwise then you have to win three of the four states that were Democrats competitive or that Trump won by double digits.

Who wins the Wisconsin governorship has massive implications for the administration in the 2020 election, and if that person is reelected, that person will be the, in charge of drawing the maps after the 2030 census.

Like, this is incredibly important, so the stakes are very high here.

Democratic establishment folks are applying the, to the selectability question an old model, right, where you look at it and you say, "Candidates further to the left or the right of the electorate in whatever state or district you're in do less well than ones who are more aligned with it." Like, that's what the political science research a- that's what history says.

Is that still true in this environment? That's a really open question.

Will it matter in an environment that is plus six, seven, or eight points Democratic, where Francesca Hong or Abdul El-Sayed, who could outperform Democrats, but if they were to underperform Democrats by five points, are still the next senator and governor of those states? To get to your, your original question, the reason why people are not exploring this question is 'cause they don't wanna know the answers.

Mm-hmm

Yeah.

And some of these Republicans will outrun Trump by at least that.

The reason why they're in a bigger pickle than Harris was is that Biden was...

There was v- there was not a ton of strong enthusiasm for Biden among Democratic voters.

She had a freedom to break with him that these Republicans feel like they do not have because the, the, there are a couple...

Like, when you look at polls, you can cut these in several ways, right? You can do it by education, race, like we're talking about here.

The other way to do it is you get the Republican sample and you say, "Do you consider yourself a member of the MAGA movement or not?" MAGA voters still love Trump.

Yeah

Thank you.

Hello, City Council.

Thanks for hearing our comments.

My name is Daniel Pfeiffer and I live on Ninth Street in Troy.

I used to work at a publication called The Markup, an investigative journalism outlet that specializes in tech and privacy issues.

I now work at ProPublica.

I'm not a reporter.

What was the point of all this, Dan?

There was no point is the problem.

So the way to look at this is not to think about the results of the autopsy.

It's to think about the process that brought us the autopsy, which is Ken Martin ran promising to release the autopsy.

Was quite critical of the post-2016 DNC for not releasing the autopsy, something they should have done, uh, but did not wanna do because it would've been very critical of Hillary Clinton.

Um, and then hired, didn't even hire, asked a political crony of his named Paul Rivera to do the autopsy.

Paul Rivera didn't do the autopsy.

Yes.

Yeah

...

he is the per- There is two people, one of two people is gonna be the next senator from Maine, Grand Platner or Susan Collins.

And so whether you love Janet Mills, you're, you have questions about Grand Platner, he is our choice.

He is who the voters of Maine were overwhelmingly picking by, in some cases by 30 points.

I think that he, his strengths and his weaknesses are intertwined.

He is, I think he's clearly a very talented candidate.

... are you kind of disappointed with the California Democratic Party? I mean, this is it? This is the best we got?

When it comes to dealing with this war I started without any clear goals or strategy or thought about an endgame, I simply do not give a shit about its impact on the financial situation of voters." [laughs]

And it's the, it's the reality that people who voted for Trump, even though they didn't like him, they didn't love all of his policy ideas, but they just wanted him to lower his prices, that's the conclusion they have been coming to over the last 18 months is he doesn't actually give a shit about their lives, the prices, their economic situation, and here he is saying it.

'Cause it's not just about Iran.

Like, the context in this answer is, you know, if you're trying to parse it, is keeping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon is more important than, you know, how much you pay at the gas price.

But it, it fits with everything else.

It fits with his focus on tax cuts for billionaires.

It focuses, fits with his focus on, you know, re- ballrooms and l- and reflecting pools and crypto schemes, all those things he's said.

Yeah.

Exactly.

We're supposed to believe that guy? But I mean, real, real talk, Chris, he should not spend the presidency lining his pockets.

He should be preparing to line his prison cell.

I don't mean that hyperbolically.

He is guaranteed by doing things like this that he'll spend the rest of his days after this administration in courtrooms, in depositions, and potentially incarcerated.

This is a corrupt act.

This is a high crime and misdemeanor, and anyone who's enabling it, I would tell them right now, 'cause I've been in your shoes inside his administration when he asked me to do illegal things, don't bet that this man's gonna pardon you.

I mean, that's his standard line, but you've got to imagine just on just sheer politics that th- that they understand how horrible this would be and look.

But let me just start with the more immediate one, which is where do you-... stand on Democrats' chances of retaking the House th- this November, the challenges and, and what, what the path looks like.

Yeah, I think Democrats were, b- prior to today, and certainly prior to the Supreme Court decision last week, overwhelming favorites to take the House.

Right now, I think they are still favorites to take the House.

It is a, we are, have a larger hurdle to overcome.

It, but we still are well-positioned.

Donald Trump's still incredibly unpopular.

The political environment cannot be better for Democrats.

Mm-hmm

What are your thoughts on the ruling out of Virginia and, and just bigger picture, how big a setback this is as we all look forward to the midterms in '26?

Well, it was about two weeks ago when Jon Favreau and I came on this podcast on a Thursday, and right after the, you know, two days after the Virginia measure passed, we among, along with many Democrats crowed about how even with Florida planning to redraw their maps later that week, the Democrats had essentially brought the redistricting battle to a draw, right? Which was unbelievable considering where we thought we'd be.

A year earlier we thought Trump's gonna rig the midterms.

Since that moment, it's been all bad news.

It began, obviously, with the Florida districts, which we can talk about.

The Supreme Court decision that, uh, gutted the Voting Rights Act, and it's kicked off this mass gerrymandering across the South, and now the Virginia decision.

Jon and I were saying last night that the bigger concern was the Vir- between what the South was doing, the Republicans were doing in the South, and the Virginia decision, the bigger decision was, the concern was the Virginia decision, and here we are.

Dan, where do you think Trump's approval needs to be for the headwinds for him and the Republican Party to be so great that we can start to win some of these even re- e- even gerrymandered districts?

And yet for him to have kind of, um, kind of shied away from overtly embracing it, w- why do you think he did that?

I think it's, it's unpopular.

Um, it's the least popular of the things we'd push for.

The Republicans wanna run on it in 2026.

Trump does this all the time.

"Democrats are gonna put 30 justices on the court." So embracing it now and calling for it now does nothing, 'cause we can do nothing with that power.

Even if we take the House and the Senate, we can't expand the court.

The, the laundry list

How similar do you think the turnout in a special election is compared to a midterm six months later? Is there more you can divine there, do you think? Well, there's

sort of like Russian nesting dolls of turnout.

So special election is the smallest.

And that's where Democrats are going to do best.

And the midterm is going to be a little bit bigger than that.

But it'll still contain a disproportionately large percentage of highly engaged people, which tend to be Democratic.

And then when you get to a presidential, you add in about 40% of the electorate who do not participate in any of these other elections.

But do you think Harry's right that Republicans get clobbered in the midterms if Trump's numbers with men remain seven points underwater?