Dan, I look at this and think I'm not surprised.

Well, I wouldn't be surprised either, not when you're dealing with unprecedented prices, and you're going to see that tomorrow with the price of diesel, which will hit an all-time high of 243.9 here in the GTA.

But I don't think the federal government has to worry too much about its finances.

You see the war and other circumstances around the world that are limiting the amount of supply, especially of diesel.

means that the federal and provincial governments are doing quite swell when it comes to the revenues.

The federal government's GST alone on gasoline earns it about 8.2 cents a liter.

So if they lose 10 on the excise tax, yeah, a bit of a hit, but not much, maybe a penny, maybe two at the most.

Or does the removal of the excise tax take that away?

Do we just have less refineries even south of the border as well? Is that part of the challenge?

Yeah, I mean, there isn't enough really.

If you go further south than Washington State, you have a problem in California where they've already closed two refineries this year.

the reformulation and the regulations required to keep a refinery going are becoming uneconomical.

And of course, that's probably the intent, but no one is taking into consideration the amount of damage that's doing in terms of the availability of supply.

And the higher standard you force gasoline into, the more boutique it becomes, the more expensive it becomes, ultimately, as players or refiners exit the market in California, as an example, the greater the likelihood of elevated prices.

Of course, we've gone through that so-called rationalization here in B.C. You and I have talked about it before.

And why is that for diesel? I mean, I understand the Olympic pipeline having some impact, but why such an increase for diesel specifically?

Do it.

Yeah, so tomorrow up $0.03 a litre, $1.849 from $1.819 this morning, not $1.80, not $1.79.

I don't like to guess, as you can imagine after doing this and pioneering this for 30 years.

But Sunday, it looks like we're going to see a decrease of what could be $0.04 to $0.05 a litre if Wall Street follows what Asian markets and overseas markets have indicated this morning.

That's actually good news for consumers because it means the price may fall below $1.80 by Sunday and stay there right until Wednesday.

But the reasons underlying it, John, are very troubling.

I don't want to go too deep in the woods, but there's a significant amount of short selling that's going on and it's being funded I said this a couple of weeks ago to John Vennevale-Raut, CTV National, said it's likely funded by the U.S. Department of Treasury and the Bank of Japan.

making about the $1.90 versus the $1.80.

So where this question mark leaves the price of oil rising and the price of gas rising.

Precisely.

And the price of oil has been really contained by a futures market that's massive.

These are paper trades.

They're not physical trades anymore.

And the screen may say $70, $69, $74 a barrel.

But if you're a refiner and you have to buy oil, it's much higher than that.

It's never going to happen.

Where do you think ultimately, because you and I have talked about how long it will take to sort of get back to quote unquote normal if we do, like where do you think this settles out and how long does that take on the price of oil side, Dan?

Well, let me start with the time it takes because to get back to where we were in February, a couple of things have to happen.

You have to clear those mines, get insurance companies to be insured to be satisfied that no vessel going through there will be will strike a mine or be attacked.

I think some of that will come out in the agreement.

You're going to need some time to reposition the fleets.

So there were, of course, ships that were laden with oil, just stuck there for three and a half months.

And there were ships that tried to come in and after about two or three weeks said, forget that noise and decided to go back.

We don't really know exactly what the situation is going to be there, right? We don't know if Iran remains in control and can still cause chaos, right? I mean, how big of a factor is that? What do we need to know in terms of, because that's still a barrier, right? I mean, if we're not having free unfettered flow without threat of it ending at some point, then we're still in a precarious spot, right?

Where do you think ultimately, because you and I have talked about how long it will take to sort of get back to quote unquote normal if we do, like where do you think this settles out and how long does that take on the price of oil side, Dan?

Well, let me start with the time it takes because to get back to where we were in February, a couple of things have to happen.

You have to clear those mines, get insurance companies to be insured to be satisfied that no vessel going through there will be will strike a mine or be attacked.

I think some of that will come out in the agreement.

You're going to need some time to reposition the fleets.

So there were, of course, ships that were laden with oil and just stuck there for three and a half months.

And there were ships that tried to come in and after about two or three weeks said forget that noise and decided to go back.

We don't really know exactly what the situation is going to be there, right? We don't know if Iran remains in control and can still cause chaos, right? I mean, how big of a factor is that? What do we need to know in terms of, because that's still a barrier, right? I mean, if we're not having free unfettered flow without threat of it ending at some point, then we're still in a precarious spot, right?

That's high.

Well, yeah, I mean, it's come down a little bit back to 100.

There's a lot of short selling that's going on there.

But it has a lot.

It says a lot about where the potential for oil prices lie, given that there's about a 20 percent haircut in terms of supply.

The world is short of there's a shortage and there's an oil shortage.

That, of course, means there's a jet fuel shortage, a diesel shortage.

What about you?

I mean, is it really that much of a teetering edge when it comes to all this?

Yeah, oils are a concern, but you hit something very important.

Natural gas is even more of a growing emergency, and that's because We hit the largest natural gas field in Iran called South Pars, and they in turn launched their attacks back on Qatar and hit UAE, some of Saudi Arabia, but they didn't go after the oil as much as they went after the production facilities for natural gas, liquefaction plants, et cetera.

That's critical because not only do you send natural gas prices to the roof at a time when Europe doesn't want any natural gas from Iran, from Russia, it's also used for urea, used for fertilizers, used for nitrogen.

And when you mess around with natural gas and its ability to be produced and shipped, you then start dealing with food shortages.

So that's coming this summer.

And I try to reach out to my friend, Sylvain Charleroi, who you've had on here many times.

If they don't get solved, and it's it's it's that kind of stuff, right?