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Crista Caughlin

Director and fixed income portfolio manager at Mawer Investment Management, lead manager of its Canadian bond strategies and frequent guest on The Art of Boring podcast.

Oct 8, 2026

1:27
What's the biggest difference between the trade fight of twenty-twenty-five and where we are now?
1:33
Yeah.
1:33
Thanks, Andrew.
1:34
There's two differences, and they're sort of working in opposite directions.
1:38
I think one of the biggest differences is the starting point.
1:41
When we started twenty-twenty-five, growth was slowing, inflation was slowing, the central bank had been easing, and then the trade shock hit.
1:49
The Bank of Canada was able to ease just given where we were because inflation was slowing, because growth was slowing.

17 MINS LATER

18:26
This might be an obvious question, but does this change that calculation?
1:27
What's the biggest difference between the trade fight of 2025 and where we are now?
1:33
Yeah, thanks, Andrew.
1:34
There's two differences, and they're sort of working in opposite directions.
1:38
I think one of the biggest differences is the starting point.
1:41
When we started 2025, growth was slowing, inflation was slowing, the central bank had been easing, and then the trade shock hit.
1:49
The Bank of Canada was able to ease, just given where we were, because inflation was slowing, because growth was slowing, they could ease and cut off some of that downside tail that was happening from the trade conflict.
2:00
If I think about where we are today, we're kind of going in the opposite direction.

16 MINS LATER

18:26
This might be an obvious question, but does this change that calculation?

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