From what we know in analysis of a couple of days now, what do we know about those two groups?

Yeah, so one source of information there is the exit poll.

And if you look at that, the national exit poll, this is the national media organizations that get together.

And it's called an exit poll, but they actually now They now poll voters both before they vote and early voters, as well as, you know, they walk up to voters on Election Day and they take their temperature.

So they have a breakdown in Wisconsin where Democrats and Democratic leaners.

were 48% of the electorate, and Republicans and Republican leaners were 45% of the Wisconsin electorate.

Independents were 8%.

Why is that?

Is there anything that you're seeing that's different in their personalities or the way that they're going about politics towards the end of this?

Nothing dramatic.

Again, I think they're, you know, Tiffany's dealing with headwinds that we've talked about.

And so he's had to juggle, you know, he's been faced with a dilemma of, you know, how closely to hug Donald Trump and how much to distance himself from Donald Trump and what the trade-offs, what the political trade-offs of that are.

And I think Crowley's run a pretty safe campaign.

I think they feel like they've got the wind at their backs.

I think there's a sense when you talk to people in the political community that Tom Tiffany has run a fairly effective campaign, but he's, again, he's dealing with a tough hand and we're gonna find out, you know, it's always a question in these elections, whether it's conditions and the environment and the political makeup of the state that carries the day or whether it's candidates and campaigns, They carry the day.

What direction has it gone since the 2018 midterm?

Is there anything that you're seeing that's different in their personalities or the way that they're going about politics towards the end of this?

Nothing dramatic.

Again, I think they're, you know, Tiffany's dealing with headwinds that we've talked about.

And so he's had to juggle, you know, he's been faced with a dilemma of, you know, how closely to hug Donald Trump and how much to distance himself from Donald Trump and what the trade-offs, what the political trade-offs of that are.

And I think Crowley's run a pretty safe campaign.

I think they feel like they've got the wind at their backs.

I think there's a sense when you talk to people in the political community that Tom Tiffany has run a fairly effective campaign, but he's, again, he's dealing with a tough hand and we're gonna find out, you know, it's always a question in these elections, whether it's conditions and the environment and the political makeup of the state that carries the day or whether it's candidates and campaigns, They carry the day.

What direction has it gone since the 2018 midterm?

Is there anything that you're seeing that's different in their personalities or the way that they're going about politics towards the end of this?

Nothing dramatic.

Again, I think they're, you know, Tiffany's dealing with headwinds that we've talked about.

And so he's had to juggle, you know, he's been faced with a dilemma of, you know, how closely to hug Donald Trump and how much to distance himself from Donald Trump and what the trade-offs, what the political trade-offs of that are.

And I think Crowley's run a pretty safe campaign.

I think they feel like they've got the wind at their backs.

I think there's a sense when you talk to people in the political community that Tom Tiffany has run a fairly effective campaign, but he's, again, he's dealing with a tough hand and we're going to find out, you know, it's always a question in these elections, whether it's conditions and the environment and the political makeup of the state that carries the day, or whether it's candidates and campaigns that carry the day.

What direction has it gone since the 2018 midterm?

Is there anything that you're seeing that's different in their personalities or the way that they're going about politics towards the end of this?

Nothing dramatic.

Again, I think they're, you know, Tiffany's dealing with headwinds that we've talked about.

And so he's had to juggle, you know, he's been faced with a dilemma of, you know, how closely to hug Donald Trump and how much to distance himself from Donald Trump and what the trade-offs, what the political trade-offs of that are.

And I think Crowley's run a pretty safe campaign.

I think they feel like they've got the wind at their backs.

I think there's a sense when you talk to people in the political community that Tom Tiffany has run a fairly effective campaign, but he's, again, he's dealing with a tough hand and we're going to find out, you know, it's always a question in these elections, whether it's conditions and the environment and the political makeup of the state that carries the day, or whether it's candidates and campaigns that carry the day.

What direction has it gone since the 2018 midterm?

And so what is that difference? And also, how do the new surge of more and more people identifying as independents play out in that math?

Yeah, so oddly enough...

Back when Republicans were doing better in Wisconsin elections, at least non-presidential elections, you know, the Walker era, the Obama era, Democrats used to have a party ID advantage.

Now, it's tricky to measure this in Wisconsin because we don't have registration by parties.

You have to rely on polling.

And when people tell a pollster, this is the party I identify with, there used to be more Democrats, more voters saying they identified with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party.

That slipped.

Could this, in some simple, simplistic way, be more about the affordability question, impact of that on people's personal budgets, more so than the candidates who are running on either side?

And so what is that difference? And also, how do the new surge of more and more people identifying as independents play out in that math?

Yeah, so oddly enough...

Back when Republicans were doing better in Wisconsin elections, at least non-presidential elections, you know, the Walker era, the Obama era, Democrats used to have a party ID advantage.

Now, it's tricky to measure this in Wisconsin because we don't have registration by parties.

You have to rely on polling.

And when people tell a pollster, this is the party I identify with, there used to be more Democrats, more voters saying they identified with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party.

That slipped.

Could this, in some simple, simplistic way, be more about the affordability question, impact of that on people's personal budgets, more so than the candidates who are running on either side?

And so what is that difference? And also, how do the new surge of more and more people identifying as independents play out in that math?

Yeah, so oddly enough...

Back when Republicans were doing better in Wisconsin elections, at least non-presidential elections, you know, the Walker era, the Obama era, Democrats used to have a party ID advantage.

Now, it's tricky to measure this in Wisconsin because we don't have registration by parties.

You have to rely on polling.

And when people tell a pollster, this is the party I identify with, there used to be more Democrats, more voters saying they identified with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party.

That slipped.

Could this, in some simple, simplistic way, be more about the affordability question, impact of that on people's personal budgets, more so than the candidates who are running on either side?

And so what is that difference? And also, how do the new surge of more and more people identifying as independents play out in that math?

Yeah, so oddly enough...

Back when Republicans were doing better in Wisconsin elections, at least non-presidential elections, you know, the Walker era, the Obama era, Democrats used to have a party ID advantage.

Now, it's tricky to measure this in Wisconsin because we don't have registration by parties.

You have to rely on polling.

And when people tell a pollster, this is the party I identify with, there used to be more Democrats, more voters saying they identified with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party.

That slipped.

Could this, in some simple, simplistic way, be more about the affordability question, impact of that on people's personal budgets, more so than the candidates who are running on either side?

Why was that true if it was true back in the day? And what's changed?

Yeah, so turnout tends to correlate with levels of education and even income.

So people with college degrees tend to turn out at higher levels than people who don't have college degrees.

But this, as you know, you know, and your listeners have heard many times now, we have an education divide in this country.

And college educated voters have tilted toward the Democratic Party, non-college voters toward the Republican Party.

And that has kind of flipped the conventional wisdom about turnout.

Now, you have to be careful about this because it doesn't automatically mean that the lower, you know, the higher the turnout, the high turnout means a victory for Republicans.

What are you watching for there? How do you see these wider concerns about the governor and national elections, things like that, playing out in the local races that are going to determine who controls the Assembly and Senate in Wisconsin?

CRAIG GILBERT.

Can everybody hear me? It's great to be back at the Rotary Club.

I guess there must be an election coming up.

I'm here to talk about the 2026 midterms.

But first, I want to give you a little national perspective, a little historical perspective.

Some of this will be familiar to many of you.

This is my 20th November election in Wisconsin.

one.

Craig, what could be affected then by a blackout?

Well, the interesting thing to me about a blackout is that You know, this is a president who obviously has a very adversarial relationship with the press, but he's also a president that craves attention and as a result engages with the press and has actually been more accessible to the press than a lot of other modern presidents are.

He's comfortable putting himself out there.

He wants to be the center of attention.

So one question here is whether he's even accomplishing his own ends and serving his own purposes by instituting a policy that has caused the members of the networks and the TV pool to basically shut down the pool, which, as you noted, won't shut down all coverage.

because when the president travels somewhere, other media can cover him.

But it does mean that events at the White House and in and around Washington are not going to have, people are not going to have the same exposure to them as they would otherwise.

Craig, what do you think about the hearing in the case tomorrow afternoon seeking a temporary injunction? What might the judge do in this situation?

I mean, what is their strategy right now?

Yeah, so it's going to be really interesting to watch how that plays out over the course of the fall.

You know, at the presidential level, it doesn't feel like President Trump is being like super sensitive or super reactive to his declining poll numbers.

And so, you know, it doesn't feel like he's doing the kinds of things that you would expect an incumbent president to do to sort of deal with um his negative job ratings um some of the things he's done i think have aggregate aggravated the problem but again republicans in congress are in a bind because um there's still a lot of fear within the republican party about getting crosswise with the president But, you know, when the rubber meets the road here, they're trying to defend and trying to hold their majorities in both chambers.

And one kind of ray of light for them, particularly on the Senate side, is that, again, most of the key Senate races, most of the pickups, places where Democrats need to pick up Senate races, are in states that Trump carried three times.

So if there's a Democratic wave, is it going to be big enough to carry Democrats across the finish line in red states.

Craig, do you trust polling in general more or less than you did 10 years ago?

You know, I don't trust it less, but the reason the answer is complicated is that polling was simpler 10 years ago.

I mean, what is their strategy right now?

Yeah, so it's going to be really interesting to watch how that plays out over the course of the fall.

At the presidential level, it doesn't feel like President Trump is being super sensitive or super reactive to his declining poll numbers.

And so it doesn't feel like he's doing the kinds of things that you would expect an incumbent president to deal with his negative job ratings.

Some of the things he's done, I think, have aggravated the problem.

But again, Republicans in Congress are in a bind because there's still a lot of fear within the Republican Party about getting crosswise with the president.

But when the rubber meets the road here, they're trying to defend and trying to hold their majorities in both chambers and one kind of ray of light for them particularly on the senate side is that again most of the key senate races most of the pickups places where democrats need to pick up senate races are in states that trump carried three times so is there if there's a republic if there's a democratic wave is it going to be big enough to carry democrats across the finish line in red states

Craig, do you trust polling in general more or less than you did 10 years ago?

How does Wisconsin fall within this sort of elasticity debate, which may give us some sense of what a race into November is going to look like?

So a lot of our elasticity is what you said, which is so evenly divided.

I mean, it really is without peer as a cliffhanger state in modern times.

And so the swings that occur are partly, I mean, there are some swingier parts of the state, and we can talk about that, where there are voters who have a history of shifting around.

But a lot of the Tippiness is simply turnout factors and a state that's so close that even a really small segment, a small sliver of swing voters is going to tip it one way or the other.

I mean, I saw a headline recently that referred to, you know, can a socialist win in a moderate state like Wisconsin? And moderate was an interesting choice of words because.

It's really not a moderate state.

Craig, would you chalk up Wisconsin Democrats' strength in that part of the electorate as having something to do with Wisconsin politics and how Democrats run or something that is unique to working class whites in the state?

What does your most recent poll show with respect to both the general climate and to the governor's race, both in the primary and in the general election?

Yeah, so I alluded to the general climate before.

I mean, to me, the most striking thing, if you ask people about their view of the Democratic Party, it's very negative.

If you ask people their view of the Republican Party, it's very negative.

If you ask people their view of President Trump, it's increasingly, increasingly negative.

To me, the most striking number in our polling, if you look at President Trump's second term, Is yes, his approval ratings gone down.

We asked the four way approval question, which gives you, I think, tells you a lot about the intensity of voters sentiment, both pro and con.

Why should we trust the polls in Wisconsin to be better than the polls in Michigan that said Abdul El-Sayed was going to win by 10 to 20 points and he wins by less than one?

What does your most recent poll show with respect to both the general climate and to the governor's race, both in the primary and in the general election?

Yeah, so I alluded to the general climate before.

I mean, to me, the most striking thing, if you ask people about their view of the Democratic Party, it's very negative.

If you ask people their view of the Republican Party, it's very negative.

If you ask people their view of President Trump, it's increasingly, increasingly negative.

To me, the most striking number in our polling, if you look at President Trump's second term, Is yes, his approval ratings gone down.

We asked the four way approval question, which gives you, I think tells you a lot about the intensity of voters sentiment, both pro and con.

Why should we trust the polls in Wisconsin to be better than the polls in Michigan that said Abdul El-Sayed was going to win by 10 to 20 points and he wins by less than one?

What have you seen over the years and how does it influence that race?

Yeah, I mean, if you look at how voters identify themselves, you know, kind of on the left-right spectrum, you know, conservative, very conservative, liberal, very liberal or moderate, Democratic voters, you know, going back over 15 years of polling we have from Marquette, are increasingly liberal by their own definition.

There are very few, if any, conservative Democrats left in the primary electorate.

And, you know, a somewhat declining percentage of moderates.

The majority of Democratic voters are now identified as liberal.

And the percentage that identifies very liberal has gone up, has kind of doubled in the last decade or so from about 12 or 13 percent of Democratic voters in Wisconsin to about More than 25%.

So that tells you that I think there's more opportunity than there would have been in the past for a candidate on the left side of the Democratic spectrum.

What do you see in that probably back and forth within the party?