were going to say, but okay.

I think like when I was young, I was just I was always creative.

I was always creating worlds.

Right.

Even though I wasn't writing, I was doing that.

And I love anime.

I mean, when I say I love anime, like I watch anime like all the time that comics, everything.

consequence

What is Airbnb doing differently that's allowing it to outperform the broader travel market?

Well, I, I think it comes down to who the customer is and where that revenue growth is coming from.

You know, notably to me, the first time bookers at Airbnb grew 11%, and those hotel booking guests that Yigal was mentioning, you know, that's growing 35% more.

So I think when you look at where that revenue's coming from, it's probably shorter haul, domestic trips, maybe some intergen- intergenerational travel, you know, taking the kids, the grandparents out to something that might be a little bit more affordable.

And especially with, you know, European travel being more expensive, some of the bigger players, um, you know, being affected by the, the Middle East, that's really not something that we see happening with, with Airbnb.

The other thing that I thought was great about Airbnb right now is they've got this Reserve Now, Pay Later tool.

And in the recent earnings report, 20% of the bookings roughly utilized that, which allows people to book now but pay over time.

As you look at this hotel opportunity, Yigal highlighting they're only in 20 cities right now, could this potentially become Airbnb's most important customer acquisition tool?

... pro- Okay

Absolutely.

Uh, and so don't let anyone just look at your homocysteine and leave it at 12, 14, 16.

And the thing about it is homocysteine typically is very easy to bring it down because it's mostly related to B vitamin deficiencies, specifically B2, B6, B9, B12, uh, and also potentially genetic variants like I'm sure we've all heard of, the, the audience has heard of MTHFR or methylation variants.

So there are lots of methylation variants.

Most of us have heard of this MTHFR, but there are many others, MTR, uh, MTHFD, uh, COMT.

Bottom line is, uh, g- genetic predisposition for that homocysteine to be higher as well.

Mm.

But as you look forward now, second half of the year, in your mind, what are going to be kind of the key drivers or the key market leadership points as we move through this earnings season and beyond?

Well, good morning, Alex.

Thank you for having me.

I think as we think about the second half of the year, this earnings season that's just about to start is really going to be a big test.

I think the big banks that kick off reporting tomorrow will really set the tone.

To the extent that we see good earnings results from them, which I do expect given all the strong capital markets activity, It could be positive for markets, especially if we don't see much in the way of increasing credit losses or credit reserves, seasonal reserves that come out, as well as if we can avoid some more bad headlines around private credit.

That could really set the tone for a positive earnings season.

Yeah, 1OK.

What are they gonna say tonight?

Well, I, I think it's really interesting to note that this earnings period, because FedEx is on these, these fiscal quarters, covers the entirety of the Iran war.

So this is gonna be a period that starts March 1st, ends May 31st.

Um, and just after that, uh, end of their quarter, they have the spinoff of their freight division.

So there's gonna be a lot of moving parts.

But consensus is coming in at about $5.91, $.97 depending on where you look, for earnings.

And what we wanna keep an eye on is those express margins.

So what are you expecting from that? What are you likely to hear on that front?

Mm-hmm.

But at the end of the day, what we've created now, I mean, there is nothing like it, definitely in Florida.

There's, there's not a lot like what we created, what I created in, in Sarasota, period.

I mean, being able to offer the clients, the patients, what we offer them there, uh, from a, from a really comprehensive perspective.

I mean, we, we have a lot of sick people.

We have a lot of people who have really no health issues, and they're just trying to optimize their health and live, live their best life.

Neurocognitive health, cardiovascular health.

Mm-hmm.

What were the key takeaways for you?

Yeah, I think the key takeaway for HPE and for enterprise tech hardware in general is that there's going to be room for multiple players.

It's a big market and HP results are showing that.

I think the other thing to keep in mind with HPE is, and Dell as well, where are the profits coming from? And in HPE, the profits are really coming from that networking business, that legacy Juniper Networks business, which we think is really a hidden gem there.

Although we don't own HPE shares, last year we were merger arbitrage investors in the Juniper transaction, and we think Juniper is a really strong business.

The estimate is roughly that networking is about 30% of sales, but it might be 50% of profits, which just shows you that some of this AI server business that people are really excited about tends to be lower margin.

What does that tell you about enterprise AI spending and where it stands today?

Well, I think there are two things you always have to think about with a backlog.

Mm.

Right? I am with, when I'm with my dog, and when I- and I'm just out there and I see him starting to move and, and, you know, that tail, once that tail starts moving, um, that, that moment is, is, is special to me.

Uh, so, um, you know, at, on a day like today, to be able to come out and actually do some work, uh, is, is actually very rewarding.

Very rewarding.

Mm.

Um, and then, you know, through that I got to m- you know, spend some time with Tim and realized how committed he was, uh, to f- uh, Pheasants Forever and obviously the, the, um, the habitat community that we have here and the absolute hours that he spends on public lands just in, in maintenance and preparation, whether it's help, uh, helping with, you know, burns or cleanup, or even putting in, you know, simple things like parking.

So for somebody like me, who extensively hunts public land, to come and be able to h- um, help, uh, Tim on his private land is not only fair-

So when you see all the down arrows today, what is the outlook for this space and where are the opportunities?

The outlook for the space, I think, is a bit challenged in the near term.

We've had basically a near vertical move since March 30th, since the ceasefire, and when the chip stocks of all types, whether it was the most high-tech and Nvidia and Broadcom, as well as some of the more basic chips out there, they've all had incredible runs up.

Analog Devices, as the company that really reports last in the group, I think most of the good news is probably baked in.

So unless they come out with something really surprising, I think it would be a win to see the stock basically hold its ground from here.

Looking forward, The earnings growth is there, and the earnings growth is the biggest driver of the expansion of these names because the PEs are generally falling for most semiconductor companies out there.

The question is whether or not investors are really going to believe it because semiconductors are a deeply cyclical industry.

If the war goes on, what?

And Christopher, what were some of your takeaways from the report? And are you surprised by the downward reaction that we're seeing today?

I'm not surprised by the reaction we're seeing in Shopify shares.

I think right now the most expensive tech stocks, of which Shopify certainly is one, we're still in a Sassaker-type environment at over 60 times earnings.

The bar is very high.

And to go from 30% earnings growth to perhaps in the 20% that they're guiding to in the next quarter, quarter.

That's just not enough for investors when your multiple is that lofty.

What stood out to me on the call, though, was they mentioned the word agentic came up six times.

What do you view as Shopify's moat today? And also, how secure is it in this AI-driven landscape, given how early you both say we are?

[laughs]

Not all LDL is bad and not all HDL is good.

So we're looking for these larger HDL fraction as well, which serves the function of HDL to take cholesterol out of the body, out of these tissues, right? And so not all HDL is good.

Looking at other markers, and I'm sure we've talked about this a lot, this lipoprotein little A. Lp(a) has been around for a long time, and finally it's making its way into some of the guidelines, and it is a real marker for premature heart disease.

No question, full stop.

That's the marker where my brother had a heart attack at 51, and his dad had a heart attack at 47, and those type of stories when lipoprotein little A, uh, levels are elevated.

And unfortunately, um, there are no magic bullets to lowering Lp(a) right now.

Mm-hmm

Big tech, you have some names that you're watching pretty closely, including Alphabet Google, right? So let's go through some of these names that you're watching in tech.

Yeah, absolutely.

So as a value investor at heart, I always start at the balance sheet.

And Alphabet and Microsoft this year are off substantially.

They're the generals, the leaders of the market.

And that's always a bit of a warning sign.

And one of the things that's been sticking out to me as a real contrast is you have to all this news around some of the big venture capital IPOs that are potentially coming this year, and the realization that big tech has some real hidden assets on the balance sheet.

Why is that? Is that a go-to no matter what? People love McDonald's?

So what specifically in the earnings report gives you the most confidence that this improvement is now being seen as sustainable?

Yeah, well, I think you're seeing in the margins, you're seeing in the overall efficiency for FedEx, and it's going through the numbers.

I think the founder, Fred Smith, is certainly a tough act to follow, but new CEO, Raj Subramanian, is really doing a great job.

You're starting to see, I think, FedEx is giving us one of the best examples of industrial AI and the digital efficiencies in action.

the things they're talking about in terms of their data products, the scoop that they have in some of their warehouses to move packages around.

They really could be one of the best examples of companies putting that technology into action and it flowing through the bottom line.

I also think it really stood out to me on the call that they're bringing in some new leadership to grow the healthcare part of the business.

okay so christopher last but not least you have highlighted i thought this is so interesting this this specialty healthcare delivery is now an attractive and high margin opportunity for growth and so how is this then changing really fedex in real time especially as we know some of their more traditional delivery outlets are are going away i mean rapidly

when does tech come back in are you buying on the chips how do you play tech or stay away from it

Well, I think you don't want to stay away from tech too much because it is an important engine of growth.

It is the dominant sector in the US economy, and US tech companies are global leaders.

I think you do want to stick with some of the bigger names.

I think you want to look at companies like Alphabet, which we think is attractive here, Microsoft, which we think is attractive, as well as even Apple.

I think those are all great companies.

Are they going to necessarily outperform the index as much as they have in prior years? Probably not, but I think they might be a little bit more of a beta play this year.

What's the next AI trade in your opinion?

And Christopher, from your perspective, does this quarter change the valuation debate at all, or does it simply just move the bar even higher for Palantir?

Yeah, that's a great point.

I think to some degree it moves the bar even higher.

I like to take a look at things on a little bit of a longer time horizon, just not the past quarter.

But if we look back over the past two years, you got a share price up 560%, earnings per share only up 244%.

So that gap is coming from a multiple that's up over 90%.

And that's just, you know, you're in rarefied air.

Do you view that as a strength or is that a risk at this stage?

I mean, Chris, you were talking about, look, you talk about LMT, right? Lockheed Martin, just this being a global defense story and the trillions that are to come, right? Tell me more about some of the names that sort of jump out at you and why.

Sure.

I think there are really three things that move stocks in general.

It's either investor expectations about the future, earnings growth, or profits growth, margin growth.

And right now, you can see from the multiples and the Fed stocks that expectations are, like Ben was saying, that you're going to have more activity of a military nature in the world.

So I think multiples are pretty full right now.

What I think you want to watch as a defense stock investor, though, is which one of these companies can improve or hold on to their margins.

Do you expect the expansion and the investment in military, aerospace and defense, Chris, to really expand?