Chris Kuiper
3
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3
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Jun 12, 2026
Bitcoin In 2026: Stronger Than Ever Or Losing Relevance? w/ Christopher Kuiper
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11:17John GillenHOST
Um, but, like, uh, talk to me about that and where you see this situated in that, how you think about it.

Chris KuiperGUEST
So on the 60 side, the equity side, which of course everyone's talking about today, stocks at all-time highs, which is great.

Chris KuiperGUEST
It's been one of the, the best runs, the best decade for, for stocks in a very long time.

Chris KuiperGUEST
But if you look at the valuation of the stock market on a very aggregate basis, uh, a, a pretty crude measure is the PE ratio.

Chris KuiperGUEST
Um, we take the, the CAPE, the C-A, cyclically adjusted PE ratio from Professor Robert Shiller at Yale, and it's a, a pretty simple measure where it's just taking the last 10 years of PE data, so you're smoothing out some of the fluctuations you get in, in earnings, hopefully getting you more to- towards a, a true cash, uh, earnings, not just accounting earnings for these companies.
21 MINS LATER
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33:30John GillenHOST
What does that time horizon look like for you? Is this a six-month thing, a six-year thing, a 10-year thing? Um, what, what does that t-timeline look like for you, and, and when do we get to the promised land, [chuckles] so to speak?
Inside Fidelity's 'Get Off Zero' Bitcoin Report | Chris Kuiper
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Jackson MikalicHOST
Are you able to explain what that means, um, in the context of just identifying the highest Sharpe ratio and then where you landed with, uh, the assumptions here and what that research led you, um, or, or what you produced here in the research as it relates to Bitcoin as part of a portfolio?

Chris KuiperGUEST
It's basically saying, um, let me give you this model, some assets, and I'll give you the assumptions of what the average return will be, the risk in terms of volatility, and then you-optimize that portfolio to give me the, the, the percentages of those assets that give me the highest Sharpe ratio.

Chris KuiperGUEST
And it's a reminder for people, the Sharpe ratio is your, your, uh, above average return over the risk-free rate.

Chris KuiperGUEST
So risk you're taking above, uh, investing in something just like a three-month T-bill, uh, divided by your risk, which is, for better or worse, uh, your volatility, your standard deviation.
12 MINS LATER

Jackson MikalicHOST
Um, you know, what are the things that you're paying attention to, and what should investors pay attention to for the rest of the year here?
"Zero Bitcoin Is No Longer Safe" - Fidelity VP Chris Kuiper
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Brandon GentileHOST
Like, where do we stand, you know, from some of the predictions you guys are making, but also just maybe, you know, some of your own thoughts in a sense of just like, where's the puck headed?

Chris KuiperGUEST
Yeah, so we were going through our 2026 look at, and we put this out every year.

Chris KuiperGUEST
And so we went back to it and we said, where are things shaking out from what we said at the beginning of the year? Have we got some things right? Have we got it wrong? How are things progressing? And one of the sections I wrote was on the macro section.
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