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Chris Kuiper

Chris Kuiper

Jun 12, 2026

11:17
Um, but, like, uh, talk to me about that and where you see this situated in that, how you think about it.
11:21
it.Yeah, so our forward-looking part on the end, we will take each in turn.
11:26
So on the 60 side, the equity side, which of course everyone's talking about today, stocks at all-time highs, which is great.
11:32
It's been one of the, the best runs, the best decade for, for stocks in a very long time.
11:37
And there could be a number of, of great reasons for that.
11:40
But if you look at the valuation of the stock market on a very aggregate basis, uh, a, a pretty crude measure is the PE ratio.
11:48
Um, we take the, the CAPE, the C-A, cyclically adjusted PE ratio from Professor Robert Shiller at Yale, and it's a, a pretty simple measure where it's just taking the last 10 years of PE data, so you're smoothing out some of the fluctuations you get in, in earnings, hopefully getting you more to- towards a, a true cash, uh, earnings, not just accounting earnings for these companies.

21 MINS LATER

33:30
What does that time horizon look like for you? Is this a six-month thing, a six-year thing, a 10-year thing? Um, what, what does that t-timeline look like for you, and, and when do we get to the promised land, [chuckles] so to speak?
36:26
Are you able to explain what that means, um, in the context of just identifying the highest Sharpe ratio and then where you landed with, uh, the assumptions here and what that research led you, um, or, or what you produced here in the research as it relates to Bitcoin as part of a portfolio?
36:41
Yeah, so f-fancy words here, mean variance optimization.
36:44
It's basically saying, um, let me give you this model, some assets, and I'll give you the assumptions of what the average return will be, the risk in terms of volatility, and then you-optimize that portfolio to give me the, the, the percentages of those assets that give me the highest Sharpe ratio.
37:04
So like mix these together and give me the highest Sharpe ratio.
37:08
And it's a reminder for people, the Sharpe ratio is your, your, uh, above average return over the risk-free rate.
37:14
Uh, so your excess return is what they call that.
37:16
So risk you're taking above, uh, investing in something just like a three-month T-bill, uh, divided by your risk, which is, for better or worse, uh, your volatility, your standard deviation.

12 MINS LATER

49:24
Um, you know, what are the things that you're paying attention to, and what should investors pay attention to for the rest of the year here?
6:17
Like, where do we stand, you know, from some of the predictions you guys are making, but also just maybe, you know, some of your own thoughts in a sense of just like, where's the puck headed?
6:27
Yeah, so we were going through our 2026 look at, and we put this out every year.
6:31
We put it out in early January.
6:32
And so we went back to it and we said, where are things shaking out from what we said at the beginning of the year? Have we got some things right? Have we got it wrong? How are things progressing? And one of the sections I wrote was on the macro section.
6:44
And I'm just looking at it here.
6:47
I said, we wouldn't be surprised in another strong year for gold.
6:49
Last year, gold was up, I think 65%.

15 MINS LATER

22:14
Bye, Bitcoiners.

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