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Chris Krueger

Chris Krueger

Sep 28, 2026

39:46
So what would happen, practically speaking, if there were a blue wave? What would be the policy implications of that?
39:53
I mean, candidly, not a ton, just because, you know, President Trump has basically locked in his legislative agenda for the remainder of his term.
40:02
Tax policy is on autopilot.
40:06
The bank deregulation rules under the Fed are going to happen uh, are going to happen regardless.
40:12
President Trump has said he's not going to sign any type of, of federal law that, that would hurt AI.
40:19
Um, and you know, we're still very much sort of in an, in an AI we trust type, type market.
40:25
So when you look at what's on autopilot, um, It's all a pretty positive narrative, probably an M&A wave, you know, starting in 37 days.
41:07
What would be the most kind of outcome-oriented situation if, I don't know, absurd situations where Republicans keep both houses? I mean, what are the possibilities of pieces of legislation actually moving? Or is it literally, in your mind, kind of a wash, nothing's going to happen for the next two years?
9:10
What are the more likely scenarios from here in your mind?
9:13
Candidly, I think for the remainder of Trump's term, there will be continued negotiations.
9:20
I'm not sure that we will ever sort of have a wholesale in the rearview mirror on the go forward of this.
9:28
I would say the two big issues that the U.S. has with Canada would be, first and foremost, the rules of origin.
9:37
which is basically the content in things like autos and what, what president Trump is anxious for is greater assembly of the final vehicle in the U S and candidly, this is almost more of a, of a U S Mexico issue.
9:56
And prime minister Carney has said that, you know, that those thresholds wouldn't be that big of a deal.
10:02
Uh, the other one, um, and it accounts for something like three-tenths of 1% of trade, is the dairy issue.

10 MINS LATER

19:45
Can you tell us about where we stand today?
33:23
So even though there's an affordability crisis, you can see this at least kind of drawing out the amount of time that people are able possibly to keep all of the spending going.
33:33
No, for, for sure.
33:34
Um, you know, what, what else is, is on the horizon with, with tariffs? Could, could be positive, could, could be negative.
33:42
Um, but yeah, I mean, I think the, the story, um, the story for a lot of investors coming out of Washington, uh, is definitely the, the one big beautiful axe, you know, fiscal tailwind, but just, you know, reminder that there are some cross currents, uh, and that those refunds won't hit in all likelihood until, until the March April timeframe.
34:02
Whereas, um, th- there's sort of a, a sequencing issue here in that you're gonna get real hits to, to households, and that cohort is probably pretty similar to those that are expecting the refunds, right? You think about the people on, uh, on the Obamacare exchanges, it's a lot of early retirees, a lot of small businesses, um, and those are folks who in theory will be beneficiaries of the no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and the increased senior deduction.
34:39
Do you think they're gonna end up coming to some kind of deal to keep some form of the subsidies in place or no?
34:45
Um, there's really not that much time.
34:47
It's gonna have to be retroactive.

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