So talk about why Shapiro's numbers may not translate into state legislative.

Yeah.

So the House is, like, almost virtually safe Democratic.

Okay.

You know, they won that chamber in 2022 and they held it in 2024.

It was like the only like super competitive chamber that the Democrats held.

They held it because of a conservative Democrat in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, Frank Burns, who represents a like Trump plus 30 something or 40 something district in one reelection by I think like three points.

it.

all righty start with your top line sense of you know you heard my uh filibuster there are you getting the same sense that there's going to be in the macro sense a big drop off in gop dominance in state legislatures

um yeah i would say that i think that's fair uh you know right now i think for the first time since um democrats you know uh got curb stomped in 2010 uh that a majority of americans it looks like will be represented by a democrat um at least on the state house level um i think and it's probably going to be like you know maybe um 54 55 something like that That's what we have in our forecast.

The population will be represented by Democrat on the state house level.

State Senate is a little bit closer, and that's because you have staggered terms in a lot of states.

So it's a lot closer.

But we'll see what happens in 24.

So right now in our forecast, we have Democrats having.

What is this the suburb, the collapse of the suburb? What is it with this asymmetry of them consistently, both when they're in power and when an unpopular Democrat is in power, underperforming down ballot?

Mm-hmm.

So in t- Q3 twenty twenty-four, the national, uh, Gallup quarterly party ID was R plus one.

Uh, Q3 twenty twenty-five is D plus seven, so that's an eight-point swing.Um, so but you can't just like, okay, let's, let's make it, uh, plus eight.

I mean, I don't remember what it was in 2024.

Um, you know, it's, it's, it's in our second survey when I talked about this.

Um, but either way, um, you know, we weighted by party ID and long story short, um, and I think our, um, I think our second survey when we weighted by-- a-and also leaned party ID, this is, this is another thing.

People are talking about, well, Youngkin won independents by nine and the no campaign is winning independents by 24.

So it's sixteen-