How badly, now I'm getting closer to your field of personal experience and professional expertise, how badly has Mohammed bin Salman managed the government and the wealth of Saudi Arabia?

Well, I think his Achilles heel has been from the very beginning when he was defense minister before he assumed his current position as the de facto regent in Saudi Arabia.

His Achilles heel has been Yemen.

And here I think there's a very important point.

I don't see any way in which Saudi Arabia can possibly win a contest with Ansar Allah in the Yemenis.

Why? Saudi Arabia has abundant infrastructure on which it depends for its existence, desalination of water, for its wealth, oil wells and refineries, fertilizer production, natural gas, And it has spent its money, unlike some other countries in the Gulf, it has spent it basically to build extensive welfare state and infrastructure of all kinds, educational institutions, airports, roads, bridges, subways, and so forth.

And Yemen has nothing.

Is this more of a manifestation of NATO's war on Russia? And what do you think Vladimir Putin will do about it?

But is that what started the whole thing?

I think this reveals a whole series of fault lines that have always been there.

Basically, the Trump administration and Donald Trump do not share the Biden administration's ideological animosity to the Russian Federation and therefore do not share the vision of using Ukraine as a way to put pressure on Russia, or even as some Europeans like Kayakalos have argued, caused the breakup of the Russian Federation.

They're not anti-Russian in that ideological sense.

They're not imbued with the Cold War triumphalism that led to the effort to incorporate Ukraine into NATO.

If we go back here, we'll see the Biden administration, the Obama administration for it, the Bush administration, the old one, that is the shrub, not the bush.

These administrations all followed a similar line of animosity toward Russia.

Sorry,

as for the

question of intelligence support, it appears that Elon Musk's Starlink system has been deliberately degraded and no longer functions effectively to guide Ukrainian drones over long distances.

thus ensuring that Ukraine has greatly reduced capacity to strike deep into Russia or at Moscow.

It also appears that intelligence support in general has been withdrawn.

By the way, that is apparently not limited to Ukraine.

It's also been the case with the Republic of Korea, South Korea, on an entirely different issue that is connected to Ukraine, namely breach of protocol and secrecy with regard to the disposition of two North Korean prisoners of war taken by the Ukrainians.

Anyway, that has produced a rupture with Ukraine and it's produced some sort of rupture with the United States.

Sorry.

Uh, why is, uh, Ansar Allah systematically taking Saudi Arabia apart?

Well, this is, has deep roots in Saudi-Yemeni interactions.

Uh, and, uh, really it, uh, it, it ties back to a, a mistake that, uh, Mohammed bin Salman, then the defense minister in Saudi Arabia, made when he, uh, decided to go after Yemen militarily.

Uh, traditionally the Saudis have managed Yemen by, um, um, their, their, their neighbor, uh, by paying off the tribal, uh, groups in the country and setting them against each other.

A sort of divide and rule, um, um, uh, approach which, uh, kept Yemen at bay, uh, and in a state of some turmoil, but not a menace to Saudi Arabia.

Ansar Allah is a, the product of a religious revival in Yemen.

It is actually a federal, uh, a federalized, uh, organization of the Houthis being the main element in it.

[laughs]

This w- this is a US induced and US, uh, ord- uh, uh, fight against Yemen." Um, how-- what do you make out of that?

Well, I think these are exaggerated views in both cases.

I think the Chinese in many ways are just as paranoid as Americans are these days, uh, about, um, uh, about the machinations of the United States.

Um, yes, there are people in the United States who would foolishly believe that, uh, the attack on Iran had something to do with diminishing Chinese influence, uh, in West Asia or generally.

If that was the case, they were fundamentally mistaken because the major winner from this war really has been China.

It's developed a vast new mar-market for its, um, renewable energy and electric vehicle technology.

Um, sales of both are surging, um, to the extent that the German automotive industry is now seriously threatened.

Mm.

When he used that phrase at the UN, uh, two weeks ago, uh, "annihilate," did you understand that to mean nuclear weapons, uh, like Hiroshima and Nagasaki?

I couldn't think of anything else it might mean.

Um, first of all, as we've discussed before, this, uh, statement was itself a violation of the Genocide Convention as well as the, um, as well as the UN Charter.

To stand before the, a body created to preserve, uh, and advance the cause of peace after World War II, uh, and to declare an interest in annihilating an entire nation, um, uh, is a war crime in itself, um, injudicious.

What could it mean? It could only mean nuclear weapons.

We have no other, uh, weapons capable of accomplishing that objective.

Uh, and so this is, um, uh, well, of course, unwise, immoral, um, but foolish really, um, because...

I mean, this is dangerous material misrepresentations to the American public, is it not?

That couldn't possibly be accurate.

No, it isn't, and, uh, it's part of the consistent, uh, fabric of, uh, uh, deceptive narratives that have, um, have led us all down the primrose paths, and nobody more than Ukraine.

Um, Ukraine is on its last legs, and it is desperate for a ceasefire.

Uh, and, uh, this kind of claim, uh, which has been consistent throughout the entire period of war- warfare, now going toward five years, um, uh, th- this, this is, this is self-deceptive.

Uh, it is, uh, it is cruel to the Ukrainians, who are losing by their own account 30,000 a month.

Um, probably 24, 25,000 wounded or dead, and the other 5,000 or 6,000, uh, deserters.

Um, and, um, who are scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of manpower or person power, because now they're trying to drag women into this, uh, in place of men, so they've run out of men, uh, to put on the front line.

W- what did Trump and Xi do besides Trump showing him the archives in his partially constructed, not congressionally authorized, billion-dollar vanity project called The Ballroom?

The, the, these changes of, uh, of the post-hegemonic order or a post-American Middle East, uh, even though we're heading in that direction, what, what is it do you think that the political establishment is most concerned about?

Well, let's remember that, uh, Donald Trump is not the only person implicitly to threaten the use of nuclear weapons.

Vladimir Putin has been doing this a fair amount, or at least Dmitry Medvedev has been doing it and, um, on behalf of the Russian government.

Um, and, uh, uh, of course, there has been no use of nuclear weapons by the Russians.

The United States remains the only country ever to have used them in warfare.

Um, but, um, I think, uh, we need to recognize that many taboos, including the nuclear allergy, are be- under assault.

Um, what has happened in terms of the glo- the global order and, uh, particularly the relationship in the transatlantic relationship, which was the center of global affairs for so long, is that the United States has changed from a protector into a predator.

I mean, it can't take on the whole region without the United States standing behind it.

Um, w- why are the European elites appearing to be angling for war with Russia? Do you get that impression from listening to them?

Oh, very much so.

Um, they are belligerent despite the fact that they have no capabilities, uh, military capabilities to carry out the threats that they imply.

Um, basically, they have been sold a bill of goods, uh, a notion that the Russians aspire to conquer them.

Uh, this is totally ahistorical.

Uh, Russia has never entered European space except in response to aggression against it from Europe, from Napoleon in the Napoleonic Wars two centuries ago, uh, more than two centuries ago, uh, and from Adolf Hitler, um, in, uh, a little less than a century ago.

And, um, uh, in both cases, the Russians pursued the aggressor armies, uh, onto European territory.

Is he eroding that?

Emphasis, "This means war with Russia." Are you surprised to hear him speak like that?

Not really because, uh, the Europeans, uh, backed by our CIA and, uh, and by the British MI6, [clears throat] have been striking deep into Russia, uh, striking targets in Russia, largely infrastructure and especially refineries.

And ironically, Donald Trump, uh, whose own CIA is, is, uh, complicit in this, um, has now appealed to the Ukrainians to halt such strikes because, um, diesel is, uh, what, about $6.25 a, a gallon now in the United States, or as a whole and about over $10 in California, which is crippling our, the transport industry.

So, [clears throat] but I'm not surprised because, you know, Europeans have steadily escalated against Russia.

The Russians clearly reached the point where further escalation will be answered by them, uh, with something beyond Ukraine.

And I think, uh, it's fair to say- The, the Russian thesis that Western troops, NATO troops, troops from an alliance aimed at Russia being stationed in Ukraine would pose an intolerable threat to Russia has been validated by the Ukrainian attacks on, uh, Russian targets deep inside Russia.

Uh, the Russian shipping in the Black Sea, [clears throat] in the Sea of Azov and so forth.

Can you take us from there please, Ambassador?

[laughs]

Well, yes, this is the classic Glenn Diesen, um, what is this? A club sandwich of questions, I guess.

Um, so, uh, y- as you were speaking, I was reminded, since you're an academic and, um, we're talking about suicide, which is, uh, the suicide of the United States with respect to its global primacy and specifically its primacy in the Middle East.

Uh, since you're an academic, I'm sure you know the story of the member of the MIT faculty who was found dead in the faculty, uh, uh, club, uh, with, um, 30 stab wounds in his back.

And the, uh, faculty gathered and looked at him and said, "This was the clearest case of suicide they'd ever seen." Um, you know, uh, the viciousness of academics is, um, uh, wr- a legend.

Uh, people in foreign affairs are more polite but equally vicious, uh, or I should say self-serving.

And the United States has basically done away with, um, uh, all of the reasons really other than its, uh, uh, its supply of weaponry, which now it doesn't have, uh, too.

... very quickly?

but

never confirmed Iranian nuclear weapons program.

We had an objective of regime change.

We had an objective of inciting rebellion in the streets.

We had an objective of depleting Iran's arsenal of missiles capable of striking Israel and cowing Iran into submission.

We're right back at the regime change thing.

because there is no specific demand.

I was wondering, how do you read the situation now in Ukraine?

What can President Trump and Secretary Bessant accomplish with their economic D-Day, which they announced yesterday?

Well, what they're going to accomplish with Iran is very little, if anything.

Let's remember that these are unilateral sanctions by the United States.

They have no status under international law.

No other country is obliged legally to respect and implement them.

And we don't have any trade or financial relationships with Iran to sanction.

So these sanctions are entirely secondary sanctions.

Is, uh, Israel, uh, about to attack Turkey?

Yeah, I was-- I wa- I wanted to get, uh, your view on this, how you read the situation, and, uh, also the recent developments.

Well, I think it's very complicated, uh, as everything in that region seems to be.

Um, I, I think, uh, the, the state of US-Turkish relations is also a factor in this, um, uh, and I'll come to that.

Uh, but, uh, basically, uh, one of the major strategic achievements, uh, of Israel, um, in, in the region, uh, in its view, uh, was the disarmament, uh, and subjugation of Syria, uh, subordination to Israeli control.

Uh, that is not just, uh, the seizure of some territory in, in Syria, which Israel clearly plans to keep, but, um, uh, the, uh, the removal of, uh, what Israel Katz, the, um, uh, Israeli defense minister described as a hostile force on Israel's borders.

Of course, there's a certain irony there because Israel has no borders.

Uh, it simply expands them wherever it wishes, and then it's surprised that the people it has dislodged, uh, have an opinion against it.

But beyond this, they have some profound problems at home, though, some divisions which are hard to overcome.

So we violated every term

there, and the Iranian position is they're not going to talk to us until we implement the agreements we made, which we have absolutely no intention of doing.

So there is not going to be a negotiation of any kind, and whatever the outcome of this is, is not going to be diplomatic, but a product of various wars of attrition.

war, an economic war of attrition.

Donald Trump believes incorrectly that if a lot of economic pressure is put on Iran, it will capitulate.

That's something we've tried for decades.

It hasn't worked.

Do you have any sense that China may accelerate plans to reintegrate with Taiwan or solidify their control over, say, the South China Sea, seeing maybe a particular vulnerability right here with the Americans? Or is China just farsighted and they're going to continue with kind of the path that they have set forward to try to reclaim territories that historically Beijing believes should be in their control?

But this only can further the now, uh, recent, um, revelation and conclusion that the United States is not a worthy ally in that part of the world.

No, to be allied with the United States now is to invite attack and not to be, uh, equipped with a defense.

Uh, every one of the Gulf, uh, Arab countries, to one extent or another, is looking to a post-American Persian Gulf security architecture.

Uh, the United States will not be involved, not, not have bases on their territory because we have proven unable, unwilling to defend either those bases or the countries, more importantly, the countries that harbor them.

In Oman, we have a, um, a, an oil storage facility, uh, and access to the port of Duqm, uh, which is on the Gulf of Oman.

Um, and, uh, we've had good, uh, military cooperation with Oman.

I would not describe any of these countries as allies.

They are not people.

we violated every term

there, and the Iranian position is they're not going to talk to us until we implement the agreements we made, which we have absolutely no intention of doing.

So there is not going to be a negotiation of any kind, and whatever the outcome of this is, is not going to be diplomatic, but a product of various wars of attrition.

Uh, or an economic war of attrition.

Um, Donald Trump believes, uh, incorrectly that, uh, if a lot of economic pressure is put on Iran, it will capitulate.

That's something we've tried for decades.

It hasn't worked.

Do you have any sense that China may accelerate plans to reintegrate with Taiwan or solidify their control over, say, the South China Sea, seeing maybe a particular vulnerability right here with the Americans? Or is China just farsighted and they're going to continue with kind of the path that they have set forward to try to reclaim territories that historically Beijing believes should be in their control?

... why is it that the Israelis [laughs] are not happy about this?

Well, uh, I, I think we should be unhappy about it, frankly, uh, because it is happening.

And what they, what they've done, they're not seeking divorce from the United States.

All of them have, uh, productive relations with us, and they don't want to lose those.

But they are now striking out on their own.

Uh, this is a declaration they know, that they no longer have any confidence in American leadership, uh, that they need to separate themselves and develop hedge, in effect, against, uh, uh, American, uh, actions that, that are backed by no strategic plan whatsoever, like the war in Iran.

Um, but it's more than that.

Is this like Article 5 of the, uh, of NATO? If, uh, the Israelis, uh, attack Pakistan, uh, they can expect a response from Türkiye and Saudi?

Well, wouldn't the president and, uh, and the Secret Service find some means to neutralize or s- put an end to that?

Pretty hard to do when, um, you're surrounded by people who have, uh, a professed loyalty to the State of Israel as well as, as well as to the United States.

I mean, um, you know, I think this is really an important issue because- Donald Trump's presidency has been destroyed by his fealty, his responsiveness, uh, his knee-jerk, uh, follow-up to any instructions he receives from Benjamin Netanyahu.

The war in Iran, the, uh, the debacle in Gaza, uh, the board of peace, the claim that MS has agreed to, um, disarm when it hasn't, uh, except on a reciprocal basis.

Um, the, uh, the, the loss of, uh, of, uh, much of our, uh, our First Amendment rights, um, uh, the suppression of free speech, the invasion of universities.

Uh, all of this is connected with Donald Trump's, uh, affection for the state of Israel and his willingness to do what he's told by, uh, its spokesperson, Benjamin Netanyahu.

Netanyahu is a brilliant politician.

... degradation of the president's decision-making.

How, how do you make sense of this active role? 'Cause you said it's not an indicator of, um, a unity with the United States, but it's, uh, shaped by domestic politics.

It's good politics in Saudi Arabia.

Um, I think people in Saudi Arabia have chafed at their restraint in the face of attacks from Iran, um, which they've not retaliated against.

Um, and, um, this is an opportunity for the government in Saudi Arabia to show that it is prepared to retaliate when that makes sense, and it has retaliated against Iraq.

Of course, that has created a political crisis in Iraq and between Iraq and the United States since the United States joined the attacks.

Um, this is also an opportunity for the Saudis, who have been distancing themselves from the United States and constraining American action from their soil against Iran, to demonstrate, uh, that, uh, they are still essential to any American position in the region, and that they're prepared to cooperate in limited contexts.

Not all.

So how, how do you see the Middle East, uh, shaping, uh, forward from here on?

Therefore, with not just the lies that get us into the 2025 war and the 2026 war, the rejection of all this diplomacy, where does that leave us now?

As well as the Palestinians and others have concluded there's no point in talking to us because we don't know how to negotiate.

I think that's ironic.

We have a president who had a ghostwritten book called The Art of the Deal.

He's very good at transactional bullying.

He does not know how to reach agreement with someone who has strong convictions and resists.

And so we've had a complete failure to do anything about the Ukraine war except alienate the Ukrainians and our European allies, hand the bag to them, And there was a meeting at Anchorage which the Russians thought that there had been some understandings reached.

What do you think of it?

... uh, corruption or something else?

No, I think we have to care.

Um, uh, the ousted, uh, defense minister was a symbol of, um, relative probity within, uh, a government in Kyiv that is notoriously corrupt, and it seems that, um, uh, his stance on corruption, his effort to make, uh, the, uh, Ukrainian defense effort more efficient and honest and, uh, uh, and, and, and free of corruption, um, had something to do with his ouster.

Uh, he's also given credit by many Ukrainians, uh, for turning, uh, the war, uh, more in their favor, uh, and, uh, therefore this makes his ouster all the more difficult to understand.

But it is an illustration of a point that is lost in the Western media, and that is Ukraine is not a democracy.

We are not fighting to save a democracy.

Ukraine is now an effective dictatorship.

He's 100% correct, is he not?

But wh-wh-what does this mean? I mean, why is the US going back to war with Iran now? What happened in your view?

Well, I think it's fairly simple.

Um, Iran did achieve control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Uh, the United States basically reinforced that with the blockade.

Um, the memorandum of misunderstanding that was, um, signed, um, acknowledged that Iran had control of the strait in effect, and, and, uh, put the burden on Iran to arrange for its opening to traffic, uh, for-- by ships for a period of 60 days, uh, during which, uh, the two sides would negotiate on various issues, uh, Lebanon, uh, uh, p- ceasefire, um, the, um, uh, the, uh, re-release of some blocked Iranian assets, um, and, um, uh, eventually the nuclear program and some understanding on that.

So this was a framework for a negotiation, uh, which immediately broke down because, uh, it turned out that the United States, um, uh, did not-- was not reconciled to Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, and immediately began to try to open a second route not under Iranian control, uh, off the coast of Oman, which is relatively shallow water, um, and, um, uh, began to sneak ships through, uh, on that, uh-- in that route, uh, uh, with their transponders turned off, uh, so they were dark, uh, to the Iranians.

Um, the Iranians responded by reasserting control, namely firing at the ships, uh, to tell them that they could not go through on an unapproved route.

I mean, if, if I was Israeli, I would be very worried by now [chuckles].

What is your assessment, first and foremost, of West Asia? Uh, where did four months of, uh, war with Iran leave the world?

Well, it has left, uh, the world in suspense.

Um, and that suspense is not going to be resolved anytime soon, in my view.

Uh, uh, what happened as a result of this war, uh, on the diplomatic front, uh, was an agreement to talk about, um, negotiations and a framework for negotiation.

And that framework was called a memorandum of understanding.

Um, I think it would be more accurately termed a memorandum of misunderstanding.

Uh, but in any event, um, uh, there it is, and it has raised provisions so that the United States must, um, comply with for Iranians to agree to various moves on their part.

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Well, and is this going to have any kind of an effect on President Putin's patience, uh, uh, and slow orchestration of the Russian military?

Uh, well, I think, yeah, I think it has had, uh, an effect.

Um, uh, I think three things are going on.

First of all, uh, President Putin, rather like the Iranian leadership, has concluded that there is no point in talking to the United States because we cannot, uh, uh, reach an agreement, or with anyone we cannot keep our word.

Um, we are subject to too many, uh, uh, contrary pressures.

Uh, so, uh, the only answer to the i- issues confronting Russia in Ukraine is military.

And I think that, uh, we are going to see some sort of repetition of what the Russians did in the Chechen war in Grozny.

Isn't it true that the Strait of Hormuz, as we speak, is under the control of the Iranians?