W-what, what could or would replace that mission?

So we don't know.

Um, the, the reason the mission is ending, first of all, is the United States refused to extend the mandate, um, at the behest of the current Israeli government.

So there's a reason why the mission is ending.

Uh, it's been there for about fifty years, uh, give or take.

Um, and the big concern is the vacuum that's gonna be left behind, and, um, Prime Minister Netanyahu does not want an international stabilization force on his northern border.

I think you don't need to be a genius to, to, to work out why would that be the case.

Uh, if there were no overseas missions for soldiers to go on, will they be able to get soldiers to join the army?

It's not a very thick document but do you think this is meaningful or how do you rate it?

So most of the defence community would just see that as a press release, a long press release, connected to nothing, full of loads of fluffy words.

But the only three metrics that really matter, you look at the budget, which is 1.49 billion, which is minuscule, as you quite rightly said, by European standards, by international standards.

The Department of Social Protection's budget is 30 billion.

So we're actually spending 19 more times on social protection, 19 times more money on social protection than on national security.

So it tells you where our priorities are.

That should be the case.

What do you say to that type of interference? It's not quite espionage, right? But it is influence, and in not a good way, I would think.

Who will, who will oversee everything here? Will it be, will it be the Gardaí assisted by the Defense Forces?

Correct.

So the, the Gardaí are in overall control, and that's exactly how it should be.

This is a, a policing matter.

Um, he's, he's a subversive.

The, the charges most likely being brought is about organized crime.

So the Gardaí are in, uh, overall command, but obviously, the Defense Forces would support, and the Irish Prison Service then, uh, at the end of the operation.

Um, w- what do they have to pay attention to around that? Because obviously, when you're dealing with, um, uh, high, high risk, uh, in terms of this particular extradition, uh, they, they have to take extra security measures.

What do you make of it?

It's not true.

We've been raising this matter for the last five or six years in the public.

So I think most people in Ireland are aware of this under-resourcing.

But let's remember, we did actually have a certain capability in the past.

And so up to 2012, we actually had our own.

Air Defence Regiment.

Just how bad are our Navy resources, Carl?

Would that not have been a better route?

Uh, no, not at all.

So Austria and Switzerland, for instance, would have, um, military defense attachés abroad for, for decades really.

So it's entirely, not only is it compatible with our neutrality, it actually enhances our neutrality, because now Ireland has an independent, um, uh, autonomous, uh, I suppose communications link with, with other militaries, which is very important.

And I think, really, that neutrality story isn't, it's just really a cover story.

I mean, these three appointments would be regarded as three very prestigious appointments, and maybe there might be some office politics involved in relation to some people would say that, "Well, why should it be given to the military? We should keep them for ourselves." I think that's the, the real reason behind this.

So fair play to Helen McEntee anyway to see that for what it was-

So, you know, if I was in Russia, I might look at that and think, "Well, that doesn't look like a very neutral position from Ireland, to be deepening defense cooperation with three NATO countries."

And on what kind of matters, Cahill, would you think intelligence is likely to be shared?

Well, there's ongoing sharing of intelligence and it's really important from Ireland's perspective because we have so few assets.

As your listeners will know, we have under-invested in our Defence Force for decades.

So if we only have a small number of assets, it's very important that like a naval ship or an air corps helicopter or aircraft, would be at the right place at the right time to prevent something from happening.

So from an intelligence point of view, it's vitally important.

And you know yourself that you can only get so much from emails or from phone calls.

Having a physical presence in the room or in a capital city is so important for absorbing information.

And do you expect much in the way of significant engagement from the Brits and the French and the Americans? Because with all due respect to the professionalism and skill of our Defence Forces, I can't see that they would view our military as on a par with theirs.

Would it be much the same as the Strait of Hormuz in that you could, without any major conventional forces, maybe using drones and other such technology, would you be able to wreak havoc?

Um, very much so.

So it's already been attempted by the Houthis.

Um, there was, um, uh, an, an event this time last year where Houthis tried to, like, close off the Bab el-Mandeb strait into the Red Sea as well.

And they had certain success.

Uh, some of the European navies sent their destroyers and their frigates down, and they did escort, uh, some of the commercial shipping.

But again, most of the interactions and the kinetic activity, it was below a certain threshold.

So based on the capabilities of all players here, would you expect that oil in particular is going to remain volatile for the foreseeable future?

Now, former TD Cathal Berry was a member of the Defense Forces Army Ranger Wing, and he's now also director of public affairs with Red Flag Consulting, and he says that Ireland is facing a number of potential problems.

Primarily, if I was to pick five, I would look at number one would be a cyber attack.

Um, we've had them in the past, and they're very cheaply and easily done.

Uh, number two is, uh, an airspace violation of, of some sort.

Again, we've seen that in Copenhagen, and, uh, something similar, um, in Cyprus as well in, in, during their presidency.

Number three is some kind of a maritime issue.

Uh, Ireland is very poorly protected from a, a maritime, um, point of view.

Is your understanding that Ireland has the capacity to deal with that at the moment?

Is it worth exposing our troops to the kind of danger they must be in?

Yeah, the risk is absolutely there, and it's particularly got worse over the last five weeks.

So on one side, you have Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia in Lebanon, and the other side, you have Israel's defense force.

And in between, you have the United Nations peacekeepers, and then you have the Lebanese armed forces as well.

So it's a very, very complex situation.

Is it worth keeping there? For sure it is.

There's a legal mandate, a UN Security Council resolution that must be enforced.

of a regime that is seeking ceasefire or peace anytime soon.

Whatever about their capacity to do the full job, what's your assessment of their risk?

Yeah, the risk is always there.

Peacekeeping is an inherently risky business.

But again, our troops have been out there for generations.

They know the ground.

They know the people out there quite well.

They're expertly led, but at left and colonel and sergeant major level.

What of the American objectives and how long more do you think this conflict will continue?