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Caroline Bain

Caroline Bain

Founder of Bain Commodities Research and a London-based commodities macroeconomist; former Chief Commodities Economist at Capital Economics.

Aug 27, 2026

2:47
Will it be?
2:49
I think the ICSG must be assuming that global economic activity is going to slow in the second half of this year.
2:56
And there's some good reasons to think that.
2:59
You know, we've had much higher energy prices this year than we expected.
3:03
China's economy is definitely slowing, and of course, the disruption to trade and shipping created by the, the Middle East war.
3:10
That said, we've seen strong growth in copper-intensive industrial activity since the start of this year, and I find it difficult to believe that we're going-- that that is going to dis- disintegrate in the second half of the year.
3:23
For example, obviously, AI-related infrastructure, the data centers, very copper-intensive.
8:04
I think Natalie has partly answered this question, but could that force higher-cost Western smelters out of business, or will Chinese producers eventually face serious financial pressure themselves?

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