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Brett Ryan
Musical artist
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Jul 9, 2026
All things US: midterms, Fed and the dollar
17:24
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13:56Henry AllenHOST
When is that likely to be an issue again? What sort of timing should we be looking out for on that?
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14:10Brett RyanGUEST
We started the last tax bill the 2025 reconciliation bill raised the debt ceiling by about $5 trillion, and you will run into that likely around the middle of next year.
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14:25Brett RyanGUEST
And that's going to take place amidst probably a bruising budget battle at the same time where we're trying to increase defense spending while at the same time Democrats are going to try to basically negate the large Medicaid cuts that the Republicans had authorized in their big tax bill in 2025.
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14:53Brett RyanGUEST
And so that sets up for a really bruising battle on the budget that will, you know, they will use the debt limit as sort of a leverage point there.

Shreyas GopalHOST
So if the Democrats flip the House and the Senate or just the House, how much does that affect the trajectory of where you see the headline numbers or the baseline deficit expectations for next year?