What was your takeaway here, both sides, UNC and TCU?

Yeah, with UNC, I think the bar was just so low.

We set the bar so low with UNC that if UNC wins, what, Three, four games were excited.

Obviously, they got to beat ETSU.

That's a free win, but they got to beat UConn.

And then outside of that, there's not a bunch of free wins on their schedule.

So picking up TCU, they have a pathway to win three or four games.

Did you have a good feeling about USC going into that game? Did you change how you feel about them after their first game? I think

What was your takeaway here, both sides, UNC and TCU?

Yeah, with UNC, I think the bar was just so low.

We set the bar so low with UNC that if UNC wins, what, Three four games were excited obviously they got to be ETS use like that's that's a free win but they got to be UConn and then outside that there's not a bunch of free wins on their schedule so picking up TCU they have a pathway to win three or four games but I was just like looking at their schedule and I was like they have it brutal like.

I don't think the ACC is some kind of juggernaut, but they play all of the difficult teams, right? They play Louisville.

They play Clemson.

Well, it's not going to be as difficult this year either way.

They play Pitt, and they have to play Miami.

Did you have a good feeling about USC going into that game? Did you change how you feel about them after their first game? I think I was lower

Who do you think that benefits after these first 45 minutes? And, like, does this kind of change of a longer halftime change how you think of the next 45 minutes here for the 90?

I think it benefits Spain because Argentina...

Actually, I'm gonna change my mind.

I think it benefits Argentina.

I was gonna say Spain because it gives them opportunity to kind of draw some things up more, but it actually benefits Argentina when you think about it because when a team's trying to defend and they're trying to do this dark arts magic, they're really expending a lot of energy.

So the longer they get to rest and recover, the better it is for them.

And then we did see Lisand- uh, Lisandro Martinez go, come down, come out of the match.

I- is that worth a flyer here? Is that worth a shot then in your estimation?

[laughs]

First time-- The longest cutting streak, over 1,000 days, whatever the number is.

He had his worst approach performance in ages.

You know what happened last time he had this, he had a bad approach performance? He put on play of the players, gained strokes on approach.

The very next one, he was one s- one good day away from winning the Masters.

The very next tournament, he was in a playoff to win the championship.

Let's go back even further.

Oof

[laughs]

And I'm glad he did because I got really good price at that time.

That line's, like, all the way down to minus 165.

I think this is, this is a really good game for France because Spain's attack has lo- le- left a lot to be desired.

Yes, their defending has been fantastic, but this is the best French team that I believe we have ever seen.

And I love when Mbappe said this.

He said...

Mm-hmm

Yeah.

I, I still think it's fair to around minus 145, minus 150.

That's Argentina to advance and Lionel Messi to have two shots on target.

He has hit this number in every match except one, the one match where he didn't start and only played 45 minutes.

He got one shot on target, but mathematics say that's two shots per 90 minutes on target.

Lionel Messi is the man on this team, right? What I love about Lionel Messi is not just how much he's scoring, but his effectiveness in space and the way that he conserves his energy and gets in the right position at all times.

He's not a guy who's gonna rip 500 really bad shots.

Do you agree with that sentiment, or do you think we're still gonna see a great final, whether it's England or Argentina versus the winner of France, Spain?

Hm.

But I just have a hard time believing that.

That number isn't already baked in.

The heat isn't already, uh, accounted for, right? Like, i- if I were to price this in a 75-degree middle-of-fall match, I'd probably have it minus 180 as opposed to even money.

So we are getting the value there because I believe the weather is priced in.

First and foremost, you look at how Norway play.

They don't know how to play defensive.

Will the Swiss be able to provide that test to the Argentines tonight in KC?

What, if anything, have you bet here? How do you look at the game?

Yeah, I bet a couple things in this game.

First and foremost, Belgium are overmatched, right? And I do feel there's going to be a little bit of an emotional dump, a letdown spot in this match for Belgium.

Weirdly enough, the Belgian side, and I've been talking about this on X, they were pretty perturbed by what the United States did and said about them.

And it was like...

We are ants in the game of football compared to Belgium.

Like, I understand fans.

But what, if anything, do you like here?

What, if anything, have you bet here? How do you look at the game?

Yeah, I bet a couple things in this game.

First and foremost, Belgium are overmatched, right? And I do feel there's going to be a little bit of an emotional dump, a letdown spot in this match for Belgium.

Weirdly enough, the Belgian side, and I've been talking about this on X, they were pretty perturbed by what the United States did and said about them.

And it was like...

We are ants in the game of football compared to Belgium.

Like, I understand fans.

But what, if anything, do you like here?

Brad, what jumps out to you so far with the teams that have, have advanced here in the last couple days? Uh, we saw a big surprise with Germany getting knocked off last night.

I think what we've seen is the teams that have...

the big teams that have gotten knocked off, they've changed tactically.

They've made decisions that really didn't make sense.

And I think with Germany, they had a couple things going against them.

You...

I- it's the rest verse rest kind of scenario there.

Follow him at Mr. Brad Thomas, SportsLine and PGATour.com. And again, Brad, for those who are might just be checking in now, round up your, uh, best bets coming up here.

What do you make of the match up here for Argentina, where I believe Messi's gonna begin this game on the match, or, or on the bench?

I, I don't think Messi's gonna play at all.

Um, it wouldn't make sense for him to even touch the pitch.

Uh, one thing you have to remember, right, and I think a lot of people fail to realize this, is yes, these teams are gonna rotate and put in these, uh, alternate players, but these are guys who wanna make a mark.

They wanna make their name heard.

They want to impress the manager in some way.

Because, like, even guys who have been on the team, we'll use United States as an example, like Timmy Weah, didn't have the best game, right? And he, uh, not that he didn't try, but it didn't look like he was trying, and what do we remember? All we remember about that game is Timmy Weah didn't look good.

Do you have any concerns in the last match, the way things shook out for, for the Americans, that any of that carries over? Or is that just a situation where it's week 18 in the NFL, it is completely irrelevant, and now we see the best of the Americans in this matchup with Bosnia?

[laughs]

I do not think Portugal are a good bet at 9/1.

Um, I, I just feel like that team lacks a lot in terms of attack.

When your attack is being led by a guy who's 40 plus years old and he's not really, no offense, a team player, I, I, I just have a hard time seeing it.

He did let Nuno Mendes take that free kick and it was tricky and it did work, but I don't think he's going to do that often.

I just feel like why are we c- why are we complicating this? You take France at plus 365 and, uh, and yes, a lot of people are gonna say, "Well, that's the chalk, that's the favorite," but if you go down the list of tournament winners, the chalk wins.

And this France team has everything that you want, right? The defense is really good.

Any bets in those games?

Would, would that be something you would consider?

Yeah, I don't mind that at all, and normally I have the, uh, the, the numbers of the p- uh, projected win percentage.

I'd imagine it's upwards of, like, 85% to win, and I think m- minus 230, the only reason it's that number is 'cause Scottie Scheffler is in his group.

But realistically, like, Scottie Scheffler hasn't been that great.

Like, and we say that with a grain of salt, right? Scottie Scheffler, his bar is much higher than anybody else.

The expectations are much higher than anybody else.

But when Scottie Scheffler's going out there and he's playing golf and he's having rounds where he's not gaining massive strokes to the field, especially on approach, that's where we start to get concerned.

Does he end up with the Heat? Is this smoke? Is this just trying to get more out of the deal? Does he go to the Celtics? Who's the mystery team? What's, uh, what's the Giannis team a week from now where we can all move on to [chuckles] something else?

You can take it away.

Yeah, so I'll give one, uh, for the 4:00 PM games since there's people who are eager to know.

I, I initially liked both teams to score.

Um, and I don't like to follow the money too much in soccer.

Soccer is all about overlay situations.

But there's been some funky movement on this both teams to score price.

It went from 160 to -130 quick, fast, and in a hurry.

Anything make sense to you? Anything that's worth investing in?

We still have a couple more matches to play, right? Uh, does Australia pose any threat to the US Men's National Team here today?

I don't think so.

Um, you know, I think Australia had a really good game plan against Türkiye.

They won that match two-nil.

But, like, let's be for real.

This was a team that probably played one of the best tactical mismatches of the entire tournament.

Australia is really strong.

Do you like Morocco on the three-way line?

So handicap that matchup later on, 3:00 PM kickoff on the West Coast today.

Yeah, Bosnia are a team that never say die, right? They're basically, and I don't want to disrespect them, but they're basically in this tournament on a stroke of luck, right? They were down in the 15th minute against Italy in the qualification playoff.

Uh, Bastoni gets a red card in the first half, late in the first half, and then they score in the 80th minute to tie, and then they win on penalties 4-1 against one of the better or best penalty stoppers in all of the world.

But if you look at what they've done, right, over the last six matches, six straight draws.

It's a team that they just don't quit.

I don't know what it is about them, right? They're not overwhelmingly great, uh, defensively, and their attack is lackluster.

But for Bosnia, they were really looking for someone to kind of step up to take, uh, Džeko's spot as the big target man to lead the lines.

Ooh

Your thoughts on what just transpired in Santa Clara between Qatar and Switzerland, with Qatar getting a result for the first time ever at the FIFA World Cup

CupThis is the dangerous thing about box score watching.

If you look at the box score, you are probably like, "Man, Switzerland were robbed," right? Uh, Qatar didn't, didn't equalize until the 94th minute.

Uh, they only had an XG of 0.76, only took seven shots, one big chance, and then c- and then Switzerland on the other side, 3.24 XG, 26 shots, seven on target.

Oh, what a robbery.

No.

Wrong.

How do you see this match playing out? Side, total, anything you like, prop standpoint as well.

flying through the stadium these people are going to be mind blown god help them if they ever come back for an sec football weekend well we're here for the real football and it gets underway in earnest today a couple of matches today a couple of matches tomorrow let me first get your big picture feel of where we are for teams that you feel are viable to not only win the cup but maybe some other teams we should keep our eye on that could advance deep into the knockout round

Yeah, I think if you want to see who's live to win this tournament, you look at the odds boards, you count down from one through eight, stop at eight, and you eliminate everyone else.

Realistically, underdogs don't win this tournament.

I think what, over the last... 10 world cups.

Italy was the longest favorite, longest price winner, excuse me, at 18 to one.

It's just, these teams are just too stacked and they're too good.

And they're so deep when you're playing in a tournament like this, especially now with the extra round, because it's an expanded field of 48. depth is going to be your friend right like it's going to be hot especially for the outdoor venues it's going to be a lot of a lot of football and these guys had really long seasons so you think about the smaller teams or or the teams that are priced higher they're not really deep but i mean spain france um england those are your run-of-the-mill favorites if you really want to get cheeky and get a long shot that i think is pretty fun i'm going to bypass the netherlands and the portugals and go all the way down to the 40-ish range and go with columbia That's a team that has a really good defense.

How does that affect how you would look at these matches that get underway in pool play both today and tomorrow moving forward?

And then what do you think about this U.S. team's chances as a whole?

Man, I don't know.

I'd probably imagine he'd go with Turner, right? Try and trust it.

But this team as a whole, I don't think the issues are so much down to goalkeeping.

I think the issues are just the defending.

And this is not a bad defense by any means, right? You have two players that are playing over in the Premier League that play at a really high level.

But it just hasn't quite worked out.

Plus 650 to win the golden ball as the player of the tournament.

Would you lay the 25 cents for Mexico to win Group A, and how far do you think that country can go?

go?L3.

Let's see.

I've gone back and forth on this group.

I actually don't even know.

I've been betting groups off like rapid fire.

I don't know if this is one where I decided to get into the v- to get into the action.

What is your favorite group bet?

Brad, when you look at it, and I'm not going to tell you I'm a soccer savant, as you are, right? But let me ask you, when you look at Team USA, realistically, when you look at the betting markets, what are the expectations? What would be a successful World Cup for Team USA?

Okay, I think you have to look at this in two different perspectives.

Look at it from the perspective of a realist and the perspectives of an optimist, right? I think a realist knows if we make it to the round of 16, that was a successful World Cup for us because that means we either finished first or second in our group and then won the next game.

We could have finished third and then be upset somebody, but more realistic, it's going to win the group or finish runner up.

And then we knocked off the team we're supposed to beat, maybe a team like Egypt.

If we lose to a Belgium or we lose to an Argentina, those are two of our likeliest opponents in the round of 16.

As long as it's not like 5-1, I think a lot of realists would be like, we had a great World Cup.

Does anything make sense to you for the golden boot?

However, is it only competitive 'cause these teams are all, like, pretty good, but there's no great teams?

I don't know.

I, I think it's really competitive because all of these teams have their weaknesses.

And they all have strengths as well, but, like, their glaring weaknesses.

For the United States, I think their weakness is gonna be the, the lack of depth in the midfield, and also we haven't seen them defend, right? Uh, since Posh has taken over, we haven't seen a great defense out of this United States team, and some of the call-ups were questionable.

With, with Türkiye, th- they're the same thing.

Their matches are always going to be fun.

Maybe you do, but.

Since you brought it up, where did you go for dinner? What did you have? Now that we're looking at probably a Vegas Carolina final, how would you handicap that going forward?

Yeah, so normally on Wednesdays, I take my daughter to CeCe's Pizza.

It's like our little date night.

We started driving.

I convinced my wife to come.

We started driving out, and it was like 40 minutes to another one we were going to go to.

So we stopped at a place called Doughboys, a little New York-style pizza joint.

How do you see that game playing out in game six?

Enough, not enough? How do you think he plays? Is there value on that number?

Uh, with S- with Scottie, like, it's hard to count him out, right? Like, he's what, five strokes back from the lead, and I think theoretically he's probably, uh, closer to four strokes back than five.

I have Alex Smalley going over par, but we can talk about that later.

Um, with Scottie, he's done everything perfect, right? He's gained o- over two strokes tee to green, and he's the best, absolute best golfer in the world come Sundays.

Right now, he's leading the tour in Sunday s- or round four scoring average.

And for him, he hasn't played poorly, right? Like I just said, he's gained two strokes tee to green.

It's just been the putter.

What do you expect in terms of the course? Is there an advantage playing earlier versus later, and what, what, what do you kind of expect, like, the winning score to be, too, is, in terms of, like, a target score here? What are your thoughts on how this course plays today?

[laughs]

And if you were to ask him how he played in the third round at the PGA Championship, he'd probably tell you that he played pretty poorly, but his numbers weren't all that bad.

He was hitting a ton of greens and hitting a lot of shots inside 10 feet.

The problem over the last two rounds is he has not made putts inside of th- inside of 10 feet.

He actually, I think he didn't make any all round, where he made two at least in the first round.

What's funny about Scheffler and thinking about how you can bet him is you have to find ways to kind of find that bounce back, find when he's going to get his rhythm going.

He's not going to always go out there and be lackluster on the putting greens.

Right