Yeah

... was, we had 16 years of that, and then we had 10 years of the four, and now all of a sudden after just three years of the 12 team, not even three, more like two and a half, uh, we decide to expand it more.

I just, the thing that's made college football, like, one of the loves of my life is that there's urgency every week.

Games matter, especially at the top of the sport.

I mean, keep in mind, college football has always been about the blue bloods, the top of the sport as far as winning national titles.

I mean, you can have great stories every now and then if you're an Iowa or Wisconsin making a Rose Bowl or whatnot, but it's always been about the top, and it's never been about Cinderella.

So people saying, "Oh, this is great that nine and three Kansas State can make an in," get, get the hell out of here with that.

Yeah

Yeah

... was s- we had 16 years of that, and then we had 10 years of the four, and now all of a sudden, after just three years of the 12 team, not even three, more like two and a half, uh, we decide to expand it more.

I just, the thing that's made college football, like, one of the loves of my life is that there's urgency every week.

Games matter, especially at the top of the sport.

I mean, keep in mind, college football has always been about the blue bloods, the top of the sport as far as winning national titles.

I mean, you can have great stories every now and then if you're in Iowa or Wisconsin making a Rose Bowl or whatnot, but it's always been about the top, and it's never been about Cinderella.

So people saying, "Oh, this is great that nine and three Kansas State can make an in," get, get the hell out of here with that.

Yeah

Um, what have you done here?

I mean, I certainly can, can make a strong case for the over, considering what the two teams have done so far, uh, this season.

Uh, how could you not? I mean, both offenses among the very best in the, uh, in the country.

And even though there's been some, you know, the points in games where they've been a little inconsistent, uh, they still got into the window.

So I agree with you.

I lean with the over.

Haven't gotten to the window personally yet on that.

Mm-hmm

Um, what have you done here?

I mean, I certainly can, can make a strong case for the over, considering what the two teams have done so far, uh, this season.

Uh, how could you not? I mean, both offenses among the very best in the, uh, in the country, and even though there's been some, you know, the points in games where they've been a little inconsistent, uh, they still got into the window.

So I agree with you.

I lean with the over.

Haven't gotten to the window personally yet on that.

I, you know me, I, I bet numbers, not teams.

Mm-hmm

How far has Oregon dropped, and, uh, any other changes for you there in the top 10 of your power ratings? Big changes.

Yeah, they're down to eight, and I c- I picked...

And they weren't number one on my power ratings, but I did pick Oregon to win the national title.

I've got them about six points, so about a touchdown.

I mean, and I'm pretty conservative when it comes to...

I, I don't change teams seven, eight points o- off of one performance, but- I, I mean the Boise State box score was fine, but obviously the scoreboard wasn't, and there was some concerns there.

But I, I got to tell you, I mean, the Oklahoma State game, not only did they lose as a 23-and-a-half point favorite, but they got dominated.

How much have you downgraded Texas Tech, and what do you make of this spot on Friday night in Lubbock, where Texas Tech now a seven-and-a-half point favorite? It might be trending towards seven against Houston here.

I

always start off a handicap in my power running.

I got to pick, which is showing a little bit of love for the, for the buck guys here.

Of course, I think they're the more trustworthy commodity.

Certainly not only the fact that they beat in Texas the last couple of years, but I'll talk about it a bit, but sarcasm and great and big games against his, you know, the upper echelon, you know, tiers of college football.

However, with that being said, I definitely came away more impressed with Texas after week one.

I know they upgraded their power rating.

As you're looking at this game, where do you start?

Mm-hmm.

Uh, so I, I think they'll be just fine.

I just think that the expectations were a little too much early.

Sacramento State, the other team making the jump, again, case by case basis, I think they're gonna big time struggle.

They didn't necessarily know they were gonna make the jump.

They did.

They paid the $20 million to join the MAC.

Okay.

Okay, your outlook for the Trojans this year and starting off Saturday afternoon, laying 30 and a half to San Jose State.

Yeah, I'm kind of down at least relative to market.

I bet under eight and a half wins for USC.

It's not like I'm down on the team.

I think that, you know, this is going to be Lincoln Riley's one of his strongest teams.

I mean, I got him 12th on my power ratings.

I like defensive personnel.

What do you think of North Dakota State making the move to the Mountain West and taking on Jacksonville State Saturday?

Your outlook for the Trojans this year, and starting off Saturday afternoon, laying 13 and a half to San Jose State.

Yeah, I'm kind of down, uh, at least relative to market.

I have bet under eight and a half wins for, uh, USC.

It's not like I'm down on the team.

I think that, you know, this is gonna be Lincoln Riley's, one of his strongest teams.

I mean, I've got them 12th in my power ratings.

I, I like, uh, defensive personnel.

What do you think of North Dakota State making the move, uh, to the Mountain West and taking on Jacksonville State Saturday?

Your outlook for the Trojans this year, and starting off Saturday afternoon laying 13 and a half to San Jose State.

Yeah, I'm kind of down, uh, at least relative to market.

I have bet under eight and a half wins for, uh, USC.

It's not like I'm down on the team.

I think that, you know, this is gonna be Lincoln Riley's one of his strongest teams.

I mean, I've got them 12th on my power ratings.

I, I like, uh, defensive personnel.

What do you think of North Dakota State making the move, uh, to the Mountain West and taking on Jacksonville State Saturday?

But looking at the Canes, looking at their schedule and looking at their talent, is there value on them to win this conference even at a minus 135, minus 130 price?

I think there is, and I know people are like, "Why are we, you know, laying juice and having, uh, you know, the sports books hold our money for three, four months?" Uh, because, [laughs] you know, th- there's a reason for it.

Number one, if we're just talking about who would be favorite over who on a neutral, I got Miami more than a touchdown favorite over anybody else in, i- in the ACC.

On top of it, you know, they have a more advantageous schedule th- than even last year.

You know, the two teams that beat them and surprised them in the regular season, uh, eh, you know, SMU and Louisville, they don't play this year.

And, and they get a lot of the other teams at home that they can maybe pull an upset, whether it be a, a Virginia Tech, a Pitt, a Florida State.

Toughest game is at Clemson early on.

[laughs]

Uh, do you feel like things are more settled, that we haven't had as much turnover and it's not as chaotic here getting ready for the season learning these teams?

So I'll say three things.

First, uh, you mentioned quarterbacks.

I think this is the best group of quarterbacks we maybe ever had in college football, and whether it's, you know, the top three or four guys, or you go right on down the line like you mentioned, 15, 20, 25 guys.

Uh, very exper- uh, very experienced group.

Uh, you know, I'll go on record and say it'll set the NFL draft record as far as the first three rounds.

I think there'll be m- the, the record is only eight in the first three.

Clemson, LSU, I mean, there's some decent games, but anything week one you think is still on the board that's bettable and, uh, and, and worth getting in front of?

Do you feel like things are more settled that we haven't had as much turnover and is not as chaotic here? getting ready for the season, learning these teams.

So I'll say three things.

First, you mentioned quarterbacks.

I think this is the best group of quarterbacks we maybe ever had in college football, whether it's, you know, the top three or four guys or you go right on down the line, like you mentioned, 15, 20, 25 guys, very experienced, very experienced group.

You know, I'll go on record and say it'll set the NFL draft record as far as the first three rounds.

I think the record is only eight in the first three.

I think we'll have more than that in the first three for next year's draft.

Is this a small sample size that happens? Is this a concerning trend for you? What do you make of Oregon's exits the last few years?

dangerous game.

And they also got Florida in September.

So at least we don't have to wait until October to figure out what we got with Ole Miss.

But look, I think Chambliss easily a top five quarterback.

And I don't think he's five when we're just talking.

I'm not talking about the next level in the NFL draft.

I'm talking about college quarterback production, winning a game for your team.

Is that the team or are you going to give me somebody else?

So what did it have in store for an encore?

Yeah, I'm done doubting what Cignetti can do, uh, because I doubted it a little bit last year coming off a, a season his first year where I upgraded their power rating 17 points.

They make the run in the playoffs.

I thought it was more that, you know, being advantageous schedule they took advantage of.

Uh, got exposed a little bit against Ohio State and Notre Dame that first year.

And then last year, what did I do? I upgraded their, [laughs] their power rating from the start of the season to the end of it 17 points again.

So five touchdowns I've upgraded their power rating in two years.

Yeah.

Brad, which numbers do you look at right now for week one and think to yourself, man, that just feels like a little bit too much or maybe not enough either way?

Yeah, any time, I mean, you've got a big point spread, you've got to ask yourself, you know, what's the motivation for margin for the favorite? I mean, Notre Dame's motto is leave no doubt.

So, yeah, that seems like a big number.

But, you know, you've got to ask yourself, if push comes to shove at the end of a game, will Notre Dame want to put an extra touchdown on the board? I think this year they do so.

But, you know, I think that seems a little bit fair for me at 20 and a half.

In fact, if it crept up a little bit further, I could see Wisconsin being a play there.

Same thing with LSU Clemson.

So what's kind of – what do you think about the Bruins being a potential – dangerous team in the Big Ten

Brad, which numbers do you look at right now for week one and think to yourself, man, that just feels like a little bit too much or maybe not enough either way?

Yeah, any time, I mean, you've got a big point spread, you've got to ask yourself, you know, what's the motivation for margin for the favorite? I mean, Notre Dame's motto is leave no doubt.

So, yeah, that seems like a big number.

But, you know, you've got to ask yourself, if push comes to shove at the end of a game, will Notre Dame want to put an extra touchdown on the board? I think this year they do so.

But, you know, I think that seems a little bit fair for me at 20 and a half.

In fact, if it crept up a little bit further, I could see Wisconsin being a play there.

Same thing with LSU Clemson.

Where are you just kind of on Alex Golish and his team heading into this season?

But was the number too high on BYU, which opened 11 and a half, and is now down to 10 and a half? Here's Brad.

You talk about the atmosphere, I agree with you.

I think it could be the big d- the, the, you know, I'm...

I love college football.

I love the history of it.

The only other game I could think of in BYU stadium history that comes close would be their upset over number one Miami in 1990, that led to Ty Detmer winning the Heisman.

Uh, that's the only thing that's close.

Late in the season, Michigan has a run of big, big games, and, uh, Brad broke down why he's looking to back the pesky underdog in this rivalry game later on in the season.

They don't play SMU, you know, What's your ceiling on this Miami team? Do you think Mensah is an upgrade over Carson Beck? How big is the drop-off with Mesador and Bain both being gone off that defensive line? What's your level of expectation for Miami this year?

Yeah, I think men's has got a little bit higher ceiling than Beck.

I still at times turnovers.

He doesn't always take care of the football, a la Carson Beck.

But obviously his mobility gives him a little bit of different dynamic.

So I really, easy for me to say, not much difference between the two.

Uh, as of right now, maybe I'll get real more specific as we get closer to the season, whether it's like a half point upgrade or downgrade.

What did you do with that unique circumstance of the flex game in the final week of the season?

I, I, I'm very surprised by this, also surprised by the decision, but I, I'll let you take it wherever you wanna start, and we can just jump off.

Well, I'm stunned by the decision, um, because, I mean, we, we've known this forever.

Uh, I mean, one of the biggest no-nos in all of sports is don't gamble on sports, let alone the, the, the sport that you're playing on, let alone the team that you're playing on.

Even though he was an active participant under, you know, when he was betting Indiana games three, four years ago, he still was on the team and a quarterback.

So a stunning decision.

Um, wasn't expecting it, to be honest with you, especially after the NCAA pretty much made quick, uh, work of it on Friday.

A- a- and all of a sudden, boom, bang, three, four days later, you know, a district judge rules him eligible for the season, you know, suspended two games.

Mm-hmm

I don't know, but hearing you talk about DeBoer makes me wonder if maybe there's one eye on the Michigan job and building a staff there and one eye on Oklahoma.

First off, let me agree with you.

I mean, the whole bowl schedule is the worst I've ever seen.

The playoffs, including at least the first round.

I mean, I'm kind of waiting for the quarterfinals, but these four games are a major bummer.

You put Notre Dame in there, mix and match a little bit, had a lot better matchups.

As far as this one goes, I mean, obviously you got to look at the data point with the two teams already playing.

You have anything on this game?

um how do you view alabama georgia you

know it's funny i i don't love either team i i i just really don't um georgia the team again the more i watch them i i just the more i'm not impressed with them i know that this is a quote-unquote revenge spot i understand that um look obviously georgia's gonna have the home field advantage here um Alabama, again, another team that, again, I like the quarterback, but another team that's been kind of somewhat inconsistent.

I don't love either of these teams.

Alabama obviously needs the game a lot more than Georgia does.

Not a game I'm betting.

I thought Georgia would be a small, tiny favorite.

It's just not a game that's going to be on my card.

I just don't know what's different about this game than the first time they played.

Why the big line shift?

Listen, I – again, Florida – and I'm curious how Jeff feels about this.

Florida is a team, to me, to me, I just – I have absolutely no interest in backing.

None.

Zero.

And, yeah, this is – people are – on the Florida side right now won't be me.

It will not be.

I think Penn State wins this game and covers.

What do you think?

Yeah, I mean, for me, the same thing.

I would agree with that, Jeff.

Again, I'm trying to, this year, in college football, there's really no teams, I'm curious if you have the same take as me, that I truly have a feeling of, like, just confidence with that I feel like I'm going to get a good performance when I'm betting on them.

I mean that.

Like, I feel, any of these teams, I feel like, I don't know what I'm going to...

I remember when Forrest Gump goes, life is a bunch of chocolates.

You know, it's funny,