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Brad Keithley

Oct 13, 2026

2:47
Take it away, my friend.
2:49
So there's a building narrative out there that the Iranian war and the spike in oil prices is going to result in a surplus that the legislature is going to have to play with when it comes into session next year and JKT or whoever is governor is going to have to play with when they come in as governor.
3:13
uh, for the next legislative session.
3:15
It's a false, it's a false narrative and it shows up, it shows up even in places like the, the new Mat-Su Sentinel Sentinel, which is the old frontiersman.
3:25
Uh, there's a, there's an article on, uh, uh, uh, a forum that the Mat-Su Sentinel had for, uh, for statewide candidates.
3:36
And down in the article, it says, increasing pay for teachers, police officers, and other public employees was the top choice among those participating for spending any state budget surplus tied to the war in Iran.
3:53
Well, I do a weekly analysis of where the budget is and what oil prices and other factors are doing to it.

17 MINS LATER

20:42
So you say the key to all of this is a comprehensive fiscal plan.
4:06
Take it away, my friend.
4:09
So there's a building narrative out there that there is going to be – that the legislature is going to have, uh, to, to play with when it comes into session next year and JKT or whoever is governor is going to have to play with when they, when they come in as governor, uh, for the next legislative session, it's a false, it's a false narrative.
4:37
And it shows up, it shows up even in places like the, the new Matsu Sentinel Sentinel, which is the old frontiersman.
4:45
Uh, there's a, there's an article on, uh, uh, uh, a forum that the Mat-Su Sentinel had for statewide candidates.
4:56
And down in the article, it says, increasing pay for teachers, police officers, and other public employees was the top choice among those participating for spending any state budget surplus tied to the war in Iran.
5:12
Well, I do a weekly analysis of where the budget is and what oil prices and other factors are doing to it.
5:24
And I look at exactly where the budget is, not only the current year budget, but also the 10-year forecast.

18 MINS LATER

23:29
So you say the key to all of this is a comprehensive fiscal plan.
3:08
What is happening with South Korea and the LNG project? Are we really saved is the question.
3:15
Well, there was a lot of sound and fury and noise, but I think in the end, at the end of the week, it was signifying nothing.
3:24
I think the net-net of the week was, as you described it, for a while it looked like there was a deal.
3:33
Trump announced it.
3:35
Everybody was in the Oval Office standing behind him, shouting great praises about it.
3:44
Um, and then, and like you said, what, what are the details out of, you know, 50, 50 some odd billion dollars, a lot of money.
3:52
So there's gotta be a lot of details around it.

20 MINS LATER

23:27
All right, there we go.
speaker_0NARRATOR
4:18
Right,
4:18
right.
4:19
I think the net-net of the week was, as you described it, for a while it looked like there was a deal.
4:28
Trump announced it.
4:30
Everybody was in the Oval Office standing behind him, shouting great praises about it.
4:39
Um, and then, and like you said, what, what are the details out of, you know, 50, 50 some odd billion dollars, a lot of money.
4:47
So there's gotta be a lot of details around it.

21 MINS LATER

26:07
All right, there we go.
2:41
Give me the give me the rundown here.
2:44
So, Michael, a few weeks ago, we were talking about tax expenditures.
2:48
We certainly talked a lot about them during the S-Corp discussions, whether or not Alaska ought to close the S-Corp loophole, which was in connection with the play out of the LNG legislation for the legislature.
3:03
And we talked about them a few weeks ago, generally, and I was trying to give some sense of the size of them.
3:10
And I was talking about the swoop chart, the swoop chart that that ledge finance puts together, uh, every session that shows spending on a, on a by bar, uh, spending by category and, and trying to give some sense of the relative size of the, um, of the, of the spending categories.
3:31
And you, you said something that triggered, triggered a thought in my mind.
3:35
You said, well, why don't we just, why don't we just include the the tax expenditures in the swoop chart.

18 MINS LATER

21:27
And what does that look like for you, Brad, when you're saying we did some dollar tracing? What spurred this whole thing?
18:55
What do you got to correct here?
18:57
I was wrong last week.
18:58
There was a question last week about what's the break point in income between the top 20% and the remainder of the 80%.
19:07
And you and I guessed $125,000.
19:09
And that nagged at me.
19:12
I won't include you in this.
19:15
I guessed $125,000.

18 MINS LATER

37:31
Brad, number three.
4:47
Okay, what's that mean, Brad? What is exactly, how is it informing your overall vote in the governor's race?
4:56
So I've not been shy about saying that I am not a big fan of any of the gubernatorial candidates.
5:02
None of them have a plan, a fiscal plan that puts the state back on track to close the deficits we've been running for the last, oh my gosh, since 2014, to close those deficits and to get the state back on track on a sustainable long-term plan, consistent with current law, consistent with the statutory PFD that's still in law.
5:27
And I've not been shy about complaining about the candidates for governor and my disappointment in them.
5:33
But there was an article last week in the ADN that sort of focused my attention differently and sort of made me realize better, sort of narrowed down what I ought to be doing.
5:45
And the headline was, Bipartisan Coalition-Minded Candidates for Alaska Legislature Led in Key Primary Races and in Fundraising.
5:56
And so the article goes on to describe various races and various fundraising levels showing that the bipartisan majority people, candidates committed to the bipartisan majority are ahead in a majority of the legislative races, both in the House races, the 40 that are up in the House, as well as producing a majority when you take into account the 10 races in the Senate producing a continuing bipartisan majority in the Senate.

14 MINS LATER

20:13
Brad? So

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