[laughs]

[laughs]No, it's absolutely crucial, and both of them are, you know, facing a lot of criticism.

Now, Netanyahu is, uh, an extremely accomplished politician, and Israel has very complicated politics, uh, that involve threading together all of these complex coalitions.

So, you know, I would never count him out.

Trump, on the other hand, is facing almost certain defeat in the midterm elections.

He's trying to muck with the system to make it harder for people to vote, and there's a lot of paranoia about efforts that he may make, uh, to interfere with elections.

But I think people are prepared, and the Democratic base is energized and extremely angry over everything that has happened over the last, uh, couple of years since Trump came in, uh, uh, for a second time.

Mm-hmm.

A lot of, there's a lot of concerns raised about this.

Yeah.

Well, the text of the agreement has not been released, so all we have are the media leaks, which suggest there will be a two-year period, uh, during which the United States and Saudi Arabia will study whether it i- it makes sense economically and in other ways for, for Saudi Arabia to enrich domestically.

But I should just add that even if the Saudis do eventually have a facility to enrich uranium, they still can't manufacture fuel for a nuclear reactor.

They would have to send the enriched uranium out of the country to produce the fuel assemblies for a reactor.

So that is an added layer right there.

Um, but reportedly, there is this two-year period.

[laughs]

But what's to prevent the unraveling of the of the policy taking shape in the next administration.

Yeah, I mean, he can change his mind in one day or one hour.

So that's a really hard hypothetical to address.

I mean, the question for me is whether we can get through the rest of the Trump administration without a new war and a worse war, whether this kind of no war, no peace situation can be extended, whether the MOU can be extended if there is not.

a real agreement between the United States and Iran which is going to be very, very difficult to accomplish.

So, you know, I think we're going to see changes in the region that are going to have an impact.

We're already seeing countries, Arab countries in the GCC, for example, diversifying relationships, distancing themselves in various ways from the United States, trying to find ways to co-opt Iran, bribe Iran into not attacking them again.

What is it? Is Iran fundamentally emotionally committed, historically committed, strategically committed? What is it about Lebanon that requires the Iranian leadership to say that, in fact, our destiny, our future is linked to this small, unfortunate country on the Mediterranean?

Listing there to Richard Verli, do you see Trump basically crossing out the words JCPOA, putting his name on it and going with the same deal?

It won't be the same deal because the United States, first of all, has lost the leverage that the military option supposedly gave it.

It has used this option and we now see that it was a failure.

Benham and I actually debated this a couple of years back.

I don't know if he remembers.

And now we have no military option, no real military option.

That's clear.

clip of J.D. Vance that we just played, and you have the sense that we may see a normalization of exchange of ambassadors almost when you listen to

What's your sense, Barbara?

Well, I tend to believe the Iranians when it comes to this more than Donald Trump.

And the fact that Abbas Arachi, the foreign minister, has said that they're close suggests to me that, yeah, this is real.

There's so many reasons why really both sides want to end this fighting or at least end this phase of war.

U.S.-Iran animosity, not the least of which Donald Trump celebrates his 80th birthday on Sunday.

And he has quite a party planned.

And of course, we have the World Cup.

How come Iran has managed to withstand that onslaught from America?

What's your sense, Barbara?

Well, I tend to believe the Iranians when it comes to this more than Donald Trump.

And the fact that Abbas Arachi, the foreign minister, has said that they're close suggests to me that, yeah, this is real.

There's so many reasons why really both sides want to end this fighting or at least end this phase of war.

U.S.-Iran animosity, not the least of which Donald Trump celebrates his 80th birthday on Sunday.

And he has quite a party planned.

And of course, we have the World Cup.

How come Iran has managed to withstand that onslaught from America?

Barbara, has there been any movement or indications of movement in the US position on some of those issues that were dragging this out?

Well, again, we have to see the final agreement.

There have been a lot of leaks, uh, and it's hard to know how, you know, authoritative they are.

But, uh, some of...

I mean, first of all, the MOU is not going to resolve the nuclear issue.

It's going to resolve the issue of the Strait of Hormuz, and perhaps result, uh, in, um, if not some unfreezing of assets now, then a pledge of unfreezing of, uh, some of Iranian assets in, in Qatar.

Then the discussion on the nuclear issue, uh, will begin.

Barbara, how, how is that likely to go down with some aspects, some parts of the MAGA movement, um, which has been very vocal, uh, calling for a resumption of the war, saying, "Forget these talks"? And if there has been movement on the US position on some of those points, like the, the dilution of highly enriched uranium, like a timetable for the release of Iranian assets, how is that gonna be s- perceived domestically?

Barbara, who do you believe is in command in Iran right now and what are they trying to achieve? Because despite all the assassinations, the Islamic regime remains in place and there's been no uprising that Trump called for at the start of the war.

Yeah, the regime remains incredibly unpopular.

And there, you know, there was hope among some that US and Israeli attacks would actually bring about the demise of the regime.

That's certainly what Trump thought was going to happen.

So I wouldn't say that the regime has been strengthened by this, but people have now seen the consequences of war.

and I think have been sobered by that.

It probably will be a while before people will be willing to come out in the streets.

So what do you think, Barbara? At this stage, who do you feel is winning the war, or at least has the upper hand?

So who gets the most, Barbara, out of this relationship? Does China get more from Iran, or is it the other way around?

Well, I think it's pretty clear that it's an asymmetrical relationship.

Uh, uh, Iran relies on China continuing to buy oil.

I think, uh, even though it's perhaps, what, ten, fifteen percent of, uh, oil that China gets from Iran, it's ninety percent of Iran's oil exports that go to China.

So without that, um, you know, Iran simply could not survive.

It could not, as, as Hassan said, keep its head above the water.

Um, but there are other aspects to the relationship.

That's all about that Trump trip, do you think?

What else do we know?

Well, we know that he has been obviously very influential for quite a long time.

His father was 86.

And so Mushtaba was presumably assisting his father there.

in terms of governing Iran.

In fact, I wrote a short profile of him in 2019 when he was considered at that time already a possible successor to his father.

Moshe is rumored to have played a major role in orchestrating the fraudulent reelection of Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2009 during the Green Movement.

Can it do that?

Do you think the idea is to keep this going until such time as that happens in some fashions?

No, I don't think so.

I think that's a bit of a fantasy.

I don't think the quote-unquote Iranian people are in a position to overthrow this regime.

It is well entrenched.

It has very, very large security forces who have the preponderance of military might.

So until or unless we see major defections within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, I don't think we're going to see that sort of situation.

So parts Australia, the US, Europe.

What are protesters saying now?

[chuckles] The demand is the same.

I, I think 80% or more of the Iranian people would love to get rid of the system of government they've had for the last 47 years.

But, of course, this is all easier said than done, as we saw in January when protests were put down absolutely brutally.

Uh, and I have no doubt that the regime would do the same to, to these protests, uh, although I think they're letting people let off a little bit of steam.

As you mentioned, 40 days is a mourning period in Iran, and so it was expected that people would protest again 40 days after the last protests.

Also, college campuses have reopened, and college students historically have protested in Iran.

Is there a path to regime change that doesn't involve outside help? And, uh, how much do you think the military buildup has emboldened the protesters to come out again?