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Austin Evans

Austin Evans

YouTuber

Jul 15, 2026

22:52
From where you're sitting, how does this change politics? How does this change world events? Yeah.
22:57
So, you know, I first became aware of these things when Polymarket was sort of beginning to gain some traction around the 2020 election.
23:06
I remember that was like a big moment where, you know, again, crypto, all these things kind of popping off.
23:10
And the idea of prediction markets seemed really interesting.
23:12
Right.
23:12
And I think there was a time in the early days where some of these people who sure were trying to make money.
23:17
But I believe there was a little bit more of a like sort of, hey, this is a way for us to learn more and to, you know, disseminate better information and whatnot but as with most things i think it's kind of turned into something else and like it's it's hard because as you go through like the logical thing like the examples you're giving are obviously ridiculous like none of those things like that like in it really into like it brings in a really perverse incentive of people doing things for their own good or for someone else's good who you know put the money down on things and you're right The sports thing, it feels like it's kind of like the canary in the coal mine because it's important, but it's a game, right? Like it's not world, you know, changing ramifications for the most part.

8 MINS LATER

31:55
Yeah.
9:23
Mm.
9:23
And I would find anyone who says that a little bit disingenuous.
9:26
But the, the core concept here, because prediction markets have been around for a very long time, J- in various different forms.
9:31
But the core idea is, is that if you, say, put out a poll for, you know, politics, whatever the case is, you're gonna have a very small subset of people who are going to respond.
9:41
Those, uh, respondents may or may not give you the actual answer that, you know, maybe they'll, they'll, they'll give you the answer you wanna hear, whatever.
9:46
The, it, it's a, it's a problematic area.
9:48
It's very difficult to poll accurately, as we've seen sort of many times in the past.

6 MINS LATER

15:51
So if I were to open the app right now, what do I see? What happens? What can I go do?

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