What do you make of it?

Well, the bubble bursting, no. We've argued why should we expect a bubble like collapse without bubble like returns? But making the case of secular bulls still intact.

But I think within that, they call them these intervening cycles for a reason there.

And we are kind of worried about some breakdowns that we're seeing in terms of internal breadth.

I think the key positive is that risk is oversold.

I think we're still set up for that year end rally.

What does that rally look like? Is it going to be undermined by lower highs and the small cap indexes and leadership and credit and could set up for a reset year in 2027? But again, within the context, how

the question that, sorry,

So what's the evolution that you see taking place?

Well, if you look back historically, these Fed tightening cycles, they're not bullish.

I don't want to paint it in that picture.

They do typically cause some near-term volatility, but they're not bull market killers either here.

And that's what we're keen on is the fact that through this move in interest rates, which would generally be viewed as a bearish signal for markets, there's been resilience to the tape.

There hasn't been a lot of technical damage.

And so for all those reasons, I think a lot of bad news has been priced in.

We want to be optimistic.

When do we ever return to that kind of a construct where just a handful of stocks are going to do all the heavy lifting?

Yeah, well, that was used as a bearish point for the market there for all those years.

So the fact that it's almost the complete opposite should be a bullish thing.

And generally, I don't know if that's a call we're making when we're going to return to a more narrow market.

I think the fact that we have had this rotation trade does support higher highs.

And I think a little nuance here.

I would argue that the outlier, the disruption between the big and everything else was just been how poorly everything else is done.

So does one necessarily have to be the bigger outperformer than the other?

So almost everything, in other words.

There's a lot of confirmation.

I think it's broader than a lot of people give cr- give it credit for, as much as there's been this very concentrated strength, very outsized gains in technology.

Um, and so now that you're, you're kind of seeing...

You know, there's been some lagging in credit spreads and some consumer weakness in healthcare, but, uh, nothing really breaking down or rolling over.

So for all those reasons, I think, uh, we can at least push higher into the third quarter.

You do face those headwinds in, in the third quarter.

Do you see any sign technically of this market topping out, and do you worry about the summer or fall as we get closer to a period that historically says markets are likely or probable to go down?

What are you seeing under the hood of the market that's giving you this optimism?

Well, I'll take off one of his terms, breadth of the market is strong, both from the economic sectors and the equity perspective as well.

Again, a lot of rebroadening and participation.

Really, we're coming off a point where small caps had made new highs.

It was very concentrated weakness.

It was essentially just the MAG-7 that had broken down.

A lot of the key small cap averages, equal weighted averages came right into the 200-day average.

So they kind of want to be in quicksand.

What's your sense of things?

Well, the destruction has been amazing, not only down 20 percent below 200-day average, but with the market unfazed, you know, really still at all-time highs here.

So to answer that question, no, I don't think this is the inflection in the group.

It's trading, I think, on the screen at $78.

I think that's important because this is an important level.

$76 is the 2024-2025 low point.

This has been the floor.

Does the market need these stocks? Does software matter at all to the broader index?

So along with seeing the S&P being able to keep going to 7700, what else do you see based on everything you're watching? Like what is it broadening? Is it different kinds of sectors that you see taking the leadership?

It is.

It's the broadening trade.

And granted, there is no middle ground here.

I mean, as it stands, if you look back historically, either it's another double digit gain or you top out and you're negative.

So we're just going by what we see right here right now, which is the re-broadening trade.

This is not a sell big tech trade.

But is it more than likely at some point this year we will get a 10 percent or more drawdown?

What are the charts saying about Apple?

the key line you just said there it's flat consider this brian nasdaq 100 down about eight percent through this pullback uh apple flat it was down uh marginally one to two percent it's a nine percent weighting in the nasdaq 100 if we think about the offsetting relative buying that had to take place uh given that's that the market and etf wide selling That's interesting to us.

That's that's a sign that would suggest that as market conditions stabilize, investors are going to want to continue to bid that stock higher.

It recently had a very big breakout above its February 2025 high.

It's consolidating there.

And I think that breakout continues to the upside.

And of course, the the top down thematics behind it there, I think large cap growth continues to lead the charge to the ups.

This year, you think the charts are showing more

Is this bull market chart-able? Does this bull market display a trend?

Oh, it sure does, uh, following its, uh, fresh breakout above its, uh, February high points.

I think the key message that we've been conveying to clients here is that the rally is surely overbought, uh, but that doesn't mean that the bull market is over, that historically, when you get these very swift recoveries from a 52-week low to a 52-week high, they've actually been followed by above average forward returns for the S&P.

So I think this is consistent with an intact bull market.

Uh, we do wanna invest for a third-year bull market, however, with that said.

Uh, how do you view that?

Well, now we're getting into some of our concerns here.

I think anyone trying to say that breadth is, is healthy here is kidding themselves.

Do you chase it?

Yeah, we still like this one.

So I think this was a great segue as we think about thematically.

Here's two socks that I think should benefit over the long term based on this large cap growth led secular bullet.

But I think Meta in particular benefiting from strength that we're seeing in communication services.

It's moving up in our momentum ranks.

We recently upgraded it to overweight.

Ari, should investors be buying into the rally today on a stock up 16%?

Technically speaking, does that interest you?

In terms of levels and durations, how we think of these setbacks, first off, Let's go back to 2022.

In hindsight, it was short and orderly.

Rest assured, we were all scared.

You turn on all these financial broadcasts, there was no more certainty than there is the uncertainty now.

People were worried about runaway inflation.

The point being, we've seen this before.

But the next one, MicroStrategy? Did we get the ticker right?

Do you buy it here?

We wouldn't buy it here.

And so it sold off at the open.

It actually has rallied back pretty strongly intraday.

I don't think that's significant in our work.

It's really just more consistent with a neutral rating.

It's a stock that's been oscillating around its 200-day average really since last July following the earnings report then when it gapped lower and just hasn't been able to find direction since then relative to the market.

What do you do with a stock like this?

What is your take on CrowdStrike?

All right.

Well, my mom will say Ari.

So half my friends call me Ari.

But listen, Brian, our 2025 outlook, it's balanced by our belief that following two above average years in the market historically would be consistent to see some moderation for 2025.

That was up for a basis for our expectation for only a 6%.

year this year, which is a below average assumption.

Who are they and what's your take?

Nvidia, no shocker, but what's it going to do in 2025?

Hey, good to see you on the show, Brian.

Happy New Year.

I think for Nvidia, it comes down to trend following 101.

It's a stock that's been trading above its 200-day moving average, not only since the start of last year, but the start of 2023 as well.

And nothing has really changed in our work through that.

We are advocates for letting winners run.

What do you do with it now?