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Ann E. Kowalewski

Sep 30, 2026

28:13
So therefore, I don't think or you don't think that Xi Jinping would even mount this until the beginning of a fourth term, right? Do I have that right? Tell me what your timeline is in your head when you think through this.
28:29
I'm always hesitant to put timelines are because I think of it more less of a timeline besides the 2027 capability timeline that you mentioned of military being actually ready.
28:41
But the political decision timeline to me is less about achieving something by a certain date and more about choosing the right day where the confluence of factors are all pointing in the right direction.
28:53
And those factors include where they assess, like, Taiwanese politics are going.
28:58
You know, they have local elections at the end of this year and then presidential elections next year, where they assess China's economy is and whether or not it can withstand any financial blowback, whether Xi Jinping feels that he has control over the party and the military.
29:15
So, you know, there's a big party congress happening in 2027 where there are likely going to be a lot of changes in Chinese leadership.
29:22
So it's a question of who ends up where there.

6 MINS LATER

35:54
But go ahead.
31:19
Would that be one of your factors to suggest that it's more likely that they would be inclined to go for it if the KMT continues to lose?
31:31
Yeah, I think that's a, that's definitely a factor because whether or not how the elections shake up will determ- will basically signal to Beijing whether or not their political influence campaigns on island are working, right? And if those political influence campaigns are not working and you have a very strong DPP candidate or even a more, you know, even if you have a KMT candidate that is very vocal about being less dependent on China, which there are a couple of KMT candidates like that, although not at the na- presidential level quite yet, um, that is also going to signal to the PRC that their influence campaign is no longer working.
32:16
And, you know, Michael, you've heard me say this again and again, but when we look at the factors that are on the table that allow China to take Taiwan without violence, you know, politically, they might not be moving in the right direction.
32:30
Economically, China's mu- or Taiwan is much more independent and less dependent on China.
32:34
Um, informationally, you see, uh, there's a lot of Chinese influence campaigns that are happening on Taiwanese media, but at the same time, you also have polling that shows that the Taiwanese identity is much stronger than it ever has been.
32:47
So if you take away kind of these non-violent ways of, um, taking administrative and governmental control over Taiwan, well, what's left on the table? And what's left ends up, might just end up being violence.
33:01
So all these other factors are important when considering whether or not the political decision to choose a more kinetic means of forced unification-
35:54
But go ahead.

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