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Andrea Ruggeri

Andrea Ruggeri

Researcher

Oct 7, 2026

3:47
But the question is, is this shift predictive of more or not?
3:53
So first, the data that we're discussing are telling that we are the peak since '46.
4:01
Armed conflict, but the question is also what kind of armed conflict? Uh, first, and I know this seems more a tedious academic difference, these are not wars.
4:10
These are conflict with belligerents, with, of course, deaths, but they don't reach a major threshold.
4:17
What has been very different in the last few years, and of course the most shocking one, has been the war between Russia, Ukraine.
4:25
And why this has been so shocking is because Russia, who was part of the Yalta project and permanent member of the UN Security Council, has been a major actor of interstate war.
4:37
But actually, if we go back to the point Stathis was making, it's true there has been this massive increase since 2006, basically, and I will come back on that, but mostly about civil wars or internationalized civil wars.

6 MINS LATER

10:58
So are we seeing a qualitative change? Are we moving into an era in which conflicts are going to be primarily between states as opposed to in states, inside states, moving from civil wars to interstate wars on the other hand? What do you think, Andrea?

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