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Alexander Denev

Alexander Denev

CEO & Co-founder of Turnleaf Analytics; quantitative finance expert specializing in causal models, machine learning, and alternative data for macroeconomic forecasting

Jun 1, 2026

6:19
between events that could
6:21
materialize.
6:22
I also work, for example, on a scenario on the Scottish referendum.
6:26
In that case, I sat down with the UK economists.
6:29
We spent around one month to come up with a scenario.
6:34
Of course, the Scottish referendum didn't happen, so we can't backtest the scenario, but it could happen again in the future because it's still in the minds of people in Scotland, so that could be a repetition.
6:49
But each scenario requires a deep expertise to understand what are the stable patterns and mechanisms that could come back into play if the scenario materializes.

19 MINS LATER

25:47
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