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Alexander Berger
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Jun 2, 2026
Theory of Change: #1: How Alexander Berger weighs the world’s biggest problems
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Michael IgoeHOST
but i guess that would still seem to me like between 2015 and whenever ai risk became the thing to talk about that sounds like a really anxiety inducing kind of situation to be in um wondering like whether all of these investments are ever going to collide with that sort of moment of political salience and opportunity? Or are you just watching Kerry and Dustin's money go out the door and chasing something that you think is really interesting and really important, but is it ever going to rise on the agenda? As the leader of an organization who's making these resource allocation decisions, how do you tell the difference between a bad bet and a good bet that hasn't panned out yet? Or how do you let other people make that decision?

Alexander BergerGUEST
I think this is a really important question and one that we struggle with a lot of like, when do you sort of decide to cut your losses on a bet that hasn't materialized yet? And I think it's a hard question and not one that has a one size fits all.

Alexander BergerGUEST
And people might sort of think, given our emphasis on ROI or measurability or caring a lot about cost effectiveness, that we have some really rigid framework around this and are really trying to hold ourselves really accountable to near-term outcomes.

Alexander BergerGUEST
And I want to be really explicit that that's not the case, largely because of this point of it can take many years or decades to make change in the world.
8 MINS LATER

Michael IgoeHOST
And I'm curious if you have thoughts on sort of like where those market failures tend to occur.
How Alexander Berger weighs the world’s biggest problems
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Michael IgoeHOST
Or are you just, you know, watching [chuckles] Carrie and Dustin's money go out the door and, and chasing something that, that you think is really interesting and really important, but, like, is it ever gonna rise on the agenda? I just-- How do you, you know, as the leader of an organization who's making these resource allocation decisions, how do you sort of tell the difference between a bad bet and a good bet that hasn't panned out yet? Um, or how do you let other people make [chuckles] that decision?

Alexander BergerGUEST
I think this is a really important question and one that we struggle with a lot of.

Alexander BergerGUEST
Like, when do you sort of decide to cut your losses on a bet that hasn't materialized yet? And I think it's a hard question and not one that has a one-size-fits-all answer.

Alexander BergerGUEST
One meta take is that I think this is a really important question, and people might sort of think, you know, given our emphasis on ROI or measurability or, or caring a lot about cost-effectiveness, um, that we have some really rigid framework around this and are really trying to, um, you know, hold ourselves, like, really accountable to near-term outcomes.

Alexander BergerGUEST
And I wanna be really explicit that that's not the case, largely because of this point of, like, it takes a h- it can take many years or decades to make change in the world, and you wanna be both receptive to the possibility that sort of you were wrong and your bet wasn't worth taking, um, and it just hasn't panned out, um, and also receptive to the possibility that you needed to lay the groundwork.
8 MINS LATER