It took a lot more than that in the 2000 episode, for example.

Dirk, I mean, to take the other side of that, just on credit spreads, I agree they're not tight, but they've certainly been tightening.

As you know, we run this macro regime model and that's giving some late cycle indicators.

Yeah, inflation is above average.

Growth is strong.

But when financial conditions tighten, that can be a difficult time for risk assets.

And the model indeed moved underweight equities after being overweight for most of the year.

So how do you see the Fed here?

Do any of these headlines last couple of days make you think about pushing those ratings maybe back to like an overweight? And if not, what would?

Yeah, thanks for having me back, Brian.

As you say, we moved equities to neutral.

We're not outright bearish on equities and we see this much more of a risk management exercise.

As you had just mentioned there, we have a long weekend coming up.

We had lower liquidity.

There's some technical positioning reasons that we saw potentially a rally yesterday.

So can you just, in sort of layman's terms, please, because I know you know the inside of the market, explain to our audience that are not professional traders some of the mechanics that have been going on in the market the last couple of days.

When do you have like a real clear vision? Or maybe you and your team have one right now?

I would say that in terms of the transition, we're still dealing with tariff announcements and how those tariffs are gonna impact the data.

And to get a clear read on that is gonna take much longer.

That we won't see until much later, probably in October, November of this year.

If we don't see any pickup in inflation, if growth still looks strong at that stage, given that those September technicals you had mentioned are out of the way, given that the technicals actually flip and potentially you have a holiday rally, we think that is a very, very good setup for equity.

So to a certain extent, we have to navigate this data that we're going to see in September plus the weak technical backdrop.

And then going forward into the end of the year, potentially there's a setup that could be Very equitable.

in early April, because we got some bigger than expected tariff announcement.