But this is going to be quite bad, you think?

Well, I think in terms of rainfall, you're looking at over 30 millimetres of rain in 24 hours in pretty much all southern, south-east and eastern coastal counties up as far as Dublin.

So that's a lot of rain to fall in 24 hours.

And some of those areas, especially on the Wicklow Mountains, the Cormoran Mountains, there is a possibility of over 40 to 50 millimetres of rain in a short period of time.

So, you know, that can cause some local flooding and some spot flooding.

And then, you know, accompanying that, you do have the strong winds for a time on the south coast and southeast coast.

The only, I suppose, good news, Sean, is that the worst of this really will be this evening, tonight.

What are we to expect from that?

How bad is it going to be? Have the French got it right, saying it's going to hit right on target? Or are we closer to being right, saying it might just skirt past the south coast? Any updates?

Well, Austin's going to stay to the south, still going to bring us some wind and rain this evening and tonight, but storm Boulogh has now been named for Saturday.

So I'm more worried about Boulogh than I am about Austin, to be honest with you, because while we will have some very wet and windy weather tonight, the winds will be much stronger now on Saturday.

The rainfall will also be much stronger and heavier in some parts of the country, especially the west.

Carl and Kenny won't see the highest totals, but we're still looking at a very wet and windy Saturday.

And we will see the sun will come out on Sunday, but it will still be very windy.

And then we will see more wind and rain on Monday.

What's the moisture like at the moment?

Are you still on with that one? Good morning.

Yeah, he will be.

The problem now is we have the next one named as well.

Stompulo has been named in the last two hours by the UK Met Office.

And Saturday is now looking worse than tonight, to be honest with you.

So the storm tonight will track to the south, bring some heavy rain, some strong winds near the coast.

But more heavy rain moving in from the west on Saturday and stronger winds on Saturday.

Did this guy just emerge? Was there any sign of him the last day or two?

Alan, what's in store for us?

It will turn very wet and windy as we go through late this afternoon and this evening.

The outer bands of Storm Austin will bring very heavy rain up through the country.

The heaviest of that will be in the south, the southeast and then the east clearing away on Friday morning.

But we also have some strong winds which will be mainly in the south and then the southeast and the east again.

Now thankfully the track of Storm Austin has shifted a little further south, not a lot but a little further south.

which does reduce the rainfall amounts a little bit, but you're still looking at over 30 millimetres of rain in less than 12 hours in some parts of the south and the southeast and the east, which could bring some localised flooding.

Give us a bit of the specifics in respect of the warnings and those areas that are going to be worst hit.

Could we get our first named storm this week?

It is possible.

It's always hard to predict when a named storm will actually be named because it's down to the UK Met Office and the Dutch Met Office.

Now, I think at the moment it's unlikely that the storm Thursday into Friday will be named, given that the UK Met Office have only issued yellow warnings and the strongest of the winds will stay south of Ireland, more impacting probably the west of France, and they have their own separate naming system, so that wouldn't be Austin even if the French name it.

As I say, the worst of it is forecast to stay south in terms of wind, but we will see some very heavy rain associated with the storm that will go to the north of the storm so when you see these low pressure tight circles on these graphs that are shared the strongest of the winds are to the bottom to the south of it and the heaviest rain are to the north of it so we will see some very heavy rain we'll actually have some heavy rain and some strong winds today and then more again Thursday night and Friday clearing overnight in the west clearing overnight Thursday night and then we have another storm possibly coming Saturday into Sunday

Is there an element of Mrs Doyle here where people like the misery and they want to name the storm ASAP?

I think there's certainly a little bit of, you know, that and the clickbait articles online, you know, do garner a lot of attention and clicks.

So, you know, people like to try and latch on to a story and create a story maybe.

Is this going to be a bad one?

I think we might escape it.

And I'm not so sure that...

Yeah, and I'm not so sure that Austin will be named either.

Now, it's going to be...

I don't think it'll be named by the Irish Met Service.

I don't think Aaron will name it.

You can't actually, you can't put a picture of that into your head.

Is this going to be a bad one?

I think we might escape it.

And I'm not so sure that, yeah, and I'm not so sure that Austin will be named either.

Now, it's going to be, I don't think it'll be named by the Irish Met Service.

I don't think Aaron will name it, but it could be named by the UK because it does look like the first low.

Okay, first of all, I should say there's some wet and windy weather coming tomorrow, Tuesday.

Tomorrow evening, we have rain moving in and some strong winds.

You can't actually, you can't put a picture of that into your head.

[laughs]

... as somebody who has, has suffered that, but, um, from the weather's point of view, we're looking at gusts of up to 100 kilometers an hour in the west of Ireland at present.

It's very windy across the country, but really it's the west that we've seen gusts of 98 kilometers an hour at Belmullet, 100 at Newport, and 85 at Naas Head, and 83 at Malin Head.

But the rain has also arrived in the northwest.

Very heavy rain now moving slowly down the country, and that will move slowly southeast over the next 24 hours, pretty much.

Are we talking about the stuff that we tend to see when all these things go hand in, in hand, Alan, things like floods? Uh, w- do we know what's the situation with tides, et cetera?

Yeah, so the, you're looking at over 30 millimeters of rain possibly falling in some parts.

That's why there are some rain warnings in operation, uh, for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, and Kerry.

Is it safe to be out in such a condition?

Yeah, I mean, it's a yellow weather warning, so it's not a considerable risk.

The only thing is we saw when we had some very strong winds in the southwest recently with a yellow weather warning that we still did have a high number of people of over 40,000 premises without power because with the leaf cover still on the trees, that can bring down some more trees than if you saw, you know, you might see an 80 or 90 kilometer an hour gust in another couple of months that wouldn't have the same impact.

So certainly it could cause some local issues.

And as I say, near the coast, it could have a bigger impact.

But generally, yellow weather warnings are not a significant risk.

But, you know, I wouldn't be standing under a tree with a placard that, you know, being sensible about things like that, really.

What advice would you have for motorists and cyclists tomorrow?

We need to forward plan.

Yeah, and this is something I've been talking about for many years, which is adaptation.

You know, we all have to do our bit to cut our emissions, but we also have to be realistic that this runaway train is going.

We can maybe slow it down, but we can't stop it and we have to adapt.

So I think one of the interesting ones that I saw, and I think it was the mail today, was how many years it's taken for these flood relief schemes to be developed.

It's taken on average 11 years for a flood relief scheme and they listed 30 schemes that are still at the design stage eight years after being promised.

So we're very, very, very slow to actually build and to move and to implement.

What is the impact of all of that on the levels of flooding that we've seen across the country in parts?

And Alan, before we get into what they're saying, can you look ahead for me to later today? What can we expect across Cork with this double warning? Good morning, Alan.

Morning, PJ.

Yes, a pretty rough afternoon and evening ahead.

There's a storm developing out in the Atlantic.

Now, thankfully, the worst of it is going to stay out in the Atlantic, but it's still going to bring us some very wet and windy weather this afternoon and this evening.

The weather warning is coming to operation for Cork from one o'clock until nine p.m., but you're probably talking about the peak.

Being in or around probably maybe two o'clock until about seven o'clock in terms of the wind and the rain, the gusts over 90 kilometers an hour, especially near the coastline, like Bantry and areas like that could see gusts maybe touching 100, 105 kilometers an hour.

They are our future.

So where is that warm weather coming from? Is there a warm air mass feeding in from Europe, or is something else at play?

Yes, there is high pressure over Europe, and it has, we have seen the low-pressure systems out in the Atlantic, and that is steering up some milder air.

Now, it was warmest yesterday.

It did hit up to 26 degrees yesterday, even 24 degrees in the Midlands, um, which would be unusual for this time of the year.

Now, that warmer air is slowly moving away.

But still, I mean, it was 16 degrees at 6:00 this morning.

Um, we've seen some very mild nights for this time of the year.

So apart from the temperatures, what's the picture for the next few days?

I'm telling you, my cardigan was under pressure.

Yes, Jonathan, it actually hit up to 26 degrees yesterday.

So it was an incredibly warm time for this time of the year and some good sunny spells as well.

It is going to drop back a little bit, but still hitting over 20 degrees in parts of the south east today.

And really, it is very unusually how mild it has been for September, at least for the first 22 days of September.

The average temperature is running nearly three degrees above the norm.

for September and really, really milder than usual.

It's kind of like the last sting of the dying wasp, isn't it?

But what about crowd control, toilets, some of the usual suspects that people complain about?

Yeah, I think the Van Helden issue was certainly, that was way too small a stage, the Smirnoff stage, for that, you know, crowd that was going to head there.

And to be honest with you, I'm not a Van Helden fan, but I was with a couple of people who were, and they said, we're going there, and as you do, you follow the people that know where they're going, and we got close to it, and it became very obvious very quickly.

It probably reminded me of the Wolftones, the time that they were in the Electric Arena, in terms of just so many people trying to move into a space.

Now, obviously, the Archegrena that the Woltorns had was a much bigger space, but it became very obvious that this was going to be tricky.

So we backed away from that stage.

And I think probably, and in fairness to Melvin at the press conference yesterday, he alluded to the fact that that stage was just too small.

Can you update us then, given the events over the weekend and what the models are now showing?

The question, I suppose, is come Sunday, will you need the wellies? So take us through day by day the forecast.

So today's a really good day in general.

Lots of sunny spells.

The sun is breaking through out there.

There is blue skies here.

There is a chance of the odd shower.

There will be the odd shower.

When

Is it going to be a miserable weekend in Stradbally?

It's going to be a very mixed one.

I'm here at the main stage and blue skies are actually appearing above me.

It's not an elucidation.

There is actually going to be good sunny spells today.

Today is probably going to be the best kind of day in terms of the amount of sunny spells and the lack of rainfall.

Yes, there might be a shower or two here today.

Is the corollary of that a positive for Electric Picnic, that hopefully it'll dry fast because the ground is so hard?

So just make sure you have your layers is what you're saying?

Yes.

Don't forget the raincoat, and be sensible with your footwear choice.

Like, I was on site yesterday, and it was so, so dry.

Now, the good news is it only had 7.2 millimeters of rain in Stradbally overnight and yesterday, which is less than what we thought might fall.

We were kind of thinking maybe 10 to 15, so that's a little bit of good news.

The rain tonight looks like it could, it could just about, this evening and tonight, might just stay east of Stradbally.

And will it affect us coming into autumn and winter, and if so, how?

Now, the, the, the ground in Stradbally, is this, would it be inclined, if there's a heavy rain, would it be inclined to flood a bit or, or what's likely to happen in that situation?

If, if it was a thundery shower that was to come first, it probably would run off.

But with the kind of rain that we're going to get today, I think, okay, there will be a little bit of runoff, but it will start to absorb quite quickly.

And then, you know, there will be a bit of a break tomorrow, and then the heavy rain on Thursday could see some thundery showers, so there could be a little bit of runoff.

But at the same time, the soil moisture deficit is about 70 to 80 millimeters here, which is means that the land is very, very dry.

It's about 40 to 50 millimeters off where it would normally be this time of the year.

But as you say, you're right in that that 40 to 50 millimeters can soak away straight away, so there will be a little bit of runoff.

Like, uh, are we talking a lot of things to have to carry now with the, you know, those, those kind of heavy tog sleeping bags, uh, uh, with-

Now, the ground in Stradbally, would it be inclined, if there's a heavy rain, would it be inclined to flood a bit or what's likely to happen in that situation?

If it was a thundery shower that was to come first, it probably would run off.

But with the kind of rain that we're going to get today, I think, OK, there will be a little bit of runoff, but it will start to absorb quite quickly.

And then, you know, there will be a bit of a break tomorrow.

And then the heavy rain on Thursday could see some thundery showers.

So there could be a little bit of runoff.

But at the same time, the soil moisture deficit is about 70 to 80 millimetres here, which means that the land is very, very dry.

And would they be, like, are we talking a lot of things to have to carry now? You know, those kind of heavy tog sleeping bags.

Any sense at this early stage?

Oh, if my messages on Instagram are anything to go by, half the country is trying to figure out what to wear for electric picnic.

And my best advice at the moment is don't plan for the summer we had.

plan for a bit of Irish, throw it all together, sunshine, showers and everything in between because we do have low pressure systems, as I say, moving in really from Tuesday night into Wednesday.

We're likely to see rain, some heavy rain Wednesday, Thursday.

The uncertainty then for Friday and the weekend is very high because we have low pressure systems, but at the moment, most of the weather models are showing sunny spells and showers.

So maybe the rain coat around the waist, back on, back off, that type of weekend.

Will we ever see it's like again? Was it that unusually hot, sunny and wonderful?

But what about everybody else?

Yes, cloud cover is going to vary a lot.

And people that are really into this, that have been waiting for this day for maybe months and years, have been planning to head to certain locations.

But they need to look at the cloud forecast and they need to probably keep a close eye on the satellite images as we go through today, because there is going to be some cloud around, especially... especially in the southwest, which from a point of view of the percentage of, you know, eclipse is the highest.

But there is a risk of cloud, especially in the southwest.

The east and the southeast does look the best location in terms of clear skies.

Now, we have to remember, Anton, you don't look directly at the sun unless you have the special glasses because it's not safe.

So are you suggesting then that if you want to, if you are going to travel within the country, the way to do it is watch the radar movement of cloud and try to predict where it will have passed and go there?

Is there, is there, can you see any rain o- over the next week?

So, yeah, so we have some showers, as I said, tomorrow morning, but very little really, a few local showers.

The best chance of rain, and it's funny we call it even the best chance, but the best chance of rain looks to be a, a, a weather front on Sunday into Monday.

And some of the weather models had shown it bringing a nice heavy fall of rain Sunday into Monday, but that low-pressure system seems to be weakening now and maybe coming a little bit further south.

So I do expect some rain on Sunday into Monday.

How much? Hard to say.

Maybe parts of Cork, especially West Cork, could see 10, 15 millimeters, maybe 20 millimeters, which would be a good, you know, drop of rain.

Can we start to expect that with climate change, this is the way it is going to be going forward?

It'll be a while yet, I think, before we see the couple of days of hard rain that people are looking for.

It is, yeah.

I mean, most of the stations, Moorpark, Cork, Roaches Point, got in about 25mm of rain so far for the first week of August, which obviously, as you say, would help the flowers.

But the soil moisture deficit is still around 60-65mm of rain.

Explain that to me now.

So that's what it would take to get the soil basically full of water.

Now obviously this time of the year you wouldn't expect the soil moisture deficit to be zero even though it is actually in the west because anyone in Donegal or anyone that's been to Donegal will tell you that it's very different up there.

flipping

It'll be a while yet, I think, before we see the couple of days of hard rain that people are looking for.

It is, yeah.

I mean, most of the stations, Moorpark, Cork, Roaches Point, got in about 25 millimetres of rain so far for the first week of August, which obviously, as you say, would help the flowers.

But the soil moisture deficit is still around 60 to 65 millimetres of rain.

Explain that to me now.

So that's what it would take to get the soil basically full of water.

Now obviously this time of the year you wouldn't expect the soil moisture deficit to be zero even though it is actually in the west because anyone in Donegal or anyone that's been to Donegal will tell you that it's very different up there.

flipping water

So, what's happening?

Yes, there was rain, but it was very hit and miss.

Some areas saw very heavy rain over 30mm.

My station near Tullow had less than 5mm.

I think in some parts of Leash it ranged from about 5 to 8mm generally, maybe a few spots higher.

But enough rain to annoy people that don't like it and not enough rain to keep the farmers happy that are looking for it.

I think it's probably the best summary of it.

so what's causing this uncertainty what sort of systems are meshing together