so the corn market also made new lows for the move so did we follow soybeans on that same brazilian news and with the dollar higher or was this more about our slow export inspections this morning

well I mean, you can point at different factors for why different traders were trading.

But I think the bottom line is, yes, Brazil is a major corn exporter.

So you're going to see that real impact on corn exports there.

It's not the peak period for Brazilian corn exports, of course.

Their seasonality is a little different.

The second crop is the big export crop.

So the wheat market, the higher dollar didn't do any favors for the wheat market, but that market, is it still have hopes that we're going to see some sort of Black Sea peace deal? I mean, how realistic is that even?

Certainly there's a lot of geopolitical headwinds that are also circulating in the market, right?

Yeah, the market has a lot of different opinions.

Obviously, there's a buyer for every seller.

But the two main themes I'm picking up are, number one, we had hoped that we'd see some Chinese purchases of corn or wheat ahead of the summit with Trump and Xi as a goodwill gesture.

Very little indication that that happened other than perhaps some cash inquiries on the PNW.

The other side is talking about potential Ukraine settlements.

with Putin and Zelensky and Trump all giving positive vibes from the UN meeting, but nobody believing it because we've heard the same story about 20 times now.

As far as the greens, though, when we look at the Black Sea export area, even if we had a ceasefire, how long would it take to resume exports?

Do you think that they will buy other ag goods like corn? Will they buy wheat? And are they buying futures ahead of that? Because there was rumors about corn futures being bought by China on Monday.

Well, that one's hard to tell.

I mean, they clearly have the mechanism, particularly with, you know, they've got some U.S. subsidiaries that could do that, but they could also just be lifting shorts and it looks like buying, right? You don't really know.

I think the reality is that China's historically not bought a lot of corn from us.

There's been a couple of years where they had big purchases.

They may buy some to build up their quality inventories because they had a lot of moisture damage last fall to the grains that they took in.

There's also, of course, just the political leverage of it.

And it doesn't look like we're going to see that end anytime soon here because more rains in the forecast.

But how much higher do you think we're going to go here? What's the market trading for yield?

What? Well, we're getting a little bit overbought here.

You saw that we reversed from the early highs on Monday, backed off about half the way.

If you're looking at a candlestick chart, you've got a risk of a shooting star here, but that would require... for the technical guys will require some bearish fall through on Tuesday.

I think the market's probably trading a 176 to 178 BPA right now.

I don't think anybody's bought into the 173, 174 numbers yet, but we can see a trend here where the Brugler VCT estimate, pro farmer estimate, they're all lower than USDA's August number.

and kind of watching for the ending stocks to shrink in that regard.

Do we keep going lower, do you think?

Is it likely we can achieve that, you think?

Well, the history has been that they're often below USDA's final number.

Two to four percent is the typical miss there.

So that's going back to 2005 or so.

So I think you have to say that if But 53.3 suggests USDA eventually goes over 54.

That's adding some carryover.

We were sort of getting tight.

We're still headline-driven on Black Sea news there, aren't we?

But where do they keep finding these acres?

In this case, the shift from a year ago was primarily in wheat and also in the dry beans and lentils.

You had a couple other commodities that had small drops, and then that went to corn and beans.

So we are looking at a record high corn and bean acreage for those two crops combined.

But if you look at the national numbers, we have what we call a U.S. acre table.

It puts this year at about... 313 million acres, but we had three years, 2017, 2018, 2023, off the top of my head, where we had 319 million, i.e. about 6 million more than this year.

So there's more ground out there that could come in.

Do you think the market has that priced in, the cattle market?

So the bump from E30 to E32 that was approved yesterday, how much additional corn will that use up in Brazil domestically?

Well, I haven't really had a chance to do that math yet.

But as you know, some of their vehicles are geared for 100% ethanol.

Most of them can handle an E30 blend without any trouble.

And basically, as I read the announcement, it basically said that they were convinced there'd be no major engine impacts to go to 32% or 35%, even eventually.

And of course, the imperative is, with the ongoing fighting in the Middle East, that crude oil prices have bounced back up.

Brazil, despite having large crude oil reserves offshore, is a net importer for fuel.

China and processing as recorded in that record NOPA crush figure we got today at 214 or a little more than that, a million bushels, right?

Was that just some continued profit taking ahead of the big WASDE report?

I think it would be properly described as position squaring ahead of Friday's USDA reports.

We know somewhat what they're going to say because of the June 30th reports, but on the other hand, they tend not to go as far in either direction as you might conclude from those June 30th reports.

So trade had some pretty nice pop earlier in the week here.

I think it's rational to take a little money off the table ahead of the USDA numbers.

And frankly, on the case like the beans, we got up close to previous resistance over 12 bucks.

And that's, you want to tread carefully there.

What about the pop in the wheat market? Was that just short covering or is that market gearing up for the WASDE with ideas we might see a little production cut?

Was that short covering or is the market preparing for maybe a production cut in the WASDE tomorrow?

I think it's a little bit of both.

You had really nice basing action in wheat.

We've confirmed the nine year cycle low, but we really haven't run too far.

You've got some fairly stiff chart resistance in the 650 area on a couple of these.

But the bottom line is trade average gas is looking for a production reduction tomorrow morning.

It's also looking for world ending stocks to drop.

Is weather in hopes for China business enough to keep that market above 80 cents and go in here?