How should we think about the FX market reaction post-meeting?

Thanks, Ralf.

So the FX reaction, I would argue, was much bigger than the rates move implied.

So if I think about it, the BOJ hike, Ueda's press conference was pretty balanced.

Yamashita discussed the changes in the rates market, but ultimately BOJ pricing, six months to one year out, did not change that much and the long end was fairly well behaved.

So what that tells me is the outsized EN sell-off that we saw was ultimately all about FX policy credibility.

And it's important because we have been constructive on the yen for a variety of reasons.

great thank you let me come back to you and i guess same question as for japan um how do you think about the sterling uh reaction um was this about the bank of england or was this about the fed

How does that impact your thinking on FX and what are your key FX views at the moment?

Sure.

Thank you, Mark.

So, very similar to Katie's views on US rates, we did have a bullish US dollar conviction for the third quarter.

That near-term bullish dollar conviction has reduced precisely for the reasons that Katie mentioned, the FOMC meeting, the data we've had since.

We had been recommending short Eurodollar since June.

We closed that trade after the FMC meeting.

Adarsh, what are the other key things that you are watching from an FX perspective as we go into the last two weeks of August?

behind us.

But there are a couple of other factors beyond that and beyond what I mentioned earlier about Fed rate hikes being priced in.

I think there are two things I think about.

One is in 2027, we are likely to see a surplus in the oil market and our commodities team are looking for oil prices to move to a 60 handle.

And this matters for the rest of the world.

I think the U.S. dollar call is never just about the U.S. It's about the other big economies, Europe, Japan, China.

And if you have meaningfully lower energy prices, not just because of what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz, but also the weakened OPEC with the exit of UAE.

What other themes are you looking at outside of the bigger dollar story?