Midterm Predictions: Pollsters and Political Scientists

Short answer: the pollsters and political scientists on podcasts this fall agree that Democrats will win the House. They're split on the Senate. Most lean toward Democrats taking it too, but several say it could still go either way. I searched episodes from mid-September through today and kept only lines spoken by guests listed as political scientists or survey researchers (pollsters). The election is November 3.

The House: they almost all expect Democrats to win it

• Natalie Jackson (pollster), on The Daily Blast with Greg Sargent (Oct 16): "the only way Republicans hold the House is if everything we know about this election cycle is absolutely disastrously wrong, and that's not happening." (2:08). She added that "no one is arguing that Republicans are going to come out of this ahead." (21:17)
• Larry Sabato (UVA political scientist), on USSC Briefing Room (Oct 18), pointed to a 9-point Democratic edge in polling averages. He said Republicans could lose the popular vote by about 3 points and still keep the House thanks to redistricting, "but they can't do it with nine points." He also said Democrats would have to try "in Herculean fashion, to lose the House." (11:55). On Erin Burnett OutFront (Oct 7) he predicted "a blue wave," though not "a tsunami." (11:32)
• Charlotte Swasey (pollster), on The Takeout with Major Garrett (Oct 12), expects Democrats to gain "a significant number, more like 15 or so" House seats. (32:40)
• Stefan Hankin (pollster), on 1A (Oct 12): "it would be hard to imagine that the Democrats don't win the House. Now, how many seats is the big question." (16:29)
• Zack Cooper (political scientist), on Q+A with Jack Tame (Oct 24), called a Democratic House "almost certain," but "probably not by a huge margin" because gerrymandering leaves few competitive seats. (14:10)
• Janice Stein (The Bridge, Sept 28) and Melissa Deckman (Straight White American Jesus, Oct 25) both call a Democratic House a fairly safe prediction.

The Senate: most lean Democratic, but less sure

Those who expect Democrats to flip it:

• Ian Bremmer, on Good Question with Amanda Lang (Oct 15): "I expect that's not just the House, but also the Senate will actually flip to the Democrats." (2:54)
• John Mearsheimer, on Switzerland with Tom Switzer (Sept 27), said a House loss is "almost guaranteed" for Republicans and "it looks now like they may lose the Senate as well." (28:43)
• Larry Sabato said Republicans are at 47 seats and "are going to have to win three of the four" remaining toss-ups. (Erin Burnett OutFront, 7:18). The party out of power often sweeps most close races late in the cycle, so "right now, you'd rather be the Democrats." (The 11th Hour, 7:21)
• Norm Ornstein, on The Back Room (Oct 26), expects Democrats are "still more likely to win" the Senate races in Maine, Michigan and Minnesota, "albeit more narrowly than a wave would suggest." (1:46)

Those who are more cautious:

• Natalie Jackson thinks Senate polls could be off by "two to four points, maybe even more," because some of the polling is "not very high quality." (20:39)
• Ruy Teixeira, on WSJ Opinion: Potomac Watch (Oct 26), noted that polls have tended to overrate Democrats in solidly red states. So "we might wind up seeing a Senator Paxton… a Senator Hinson." Even so, he expects that error not to be enough to keep the Senate in Republican hands, adding "But I could be wrong." (10:39, 13:06)
• Janice Stein, on The Bridge (Oct 19), on the Senate: "I have to tell you, I'm more reserved here." (12:35)
• Melissa Deckman and Charlotte Swasey both say a tough Senate map makes it harder for Democrats than the House.

Why they think so

The reasons they gave:

• Trump's approval is in the low 30s, with disapproval over 60%, according to Sabato.
• Voters are worried about the economy and affordability, which several tie to the war with Iran and gas prices.
• Democrats lead the generic ballot by about 9 points.
• Democrats are more excited to vote: 46% say they're very excited, against 31% of Republicans (Deckman).

Things to keep in mind

• None of these guests predicted a Republican win in either chamber.
• Bradley Thayer, the one conservative political scientist in the results (on Bannon's War Room and Breitbart), talked about how much is at stake, not about who will win.
• Several, including Stein, Ornstein and Sabato, raised the risk of pressure on vote counts or certification after the election.
• These are predictions from transcribed episodes, not results.