Guests aren't confidently predicting a Fed cut anytime soon. In the past month (Oct 6 – Nov 5), the surest predictions fall into two camps. One camp says the Fed's next move is another hike, not a cut. The other says cuts will come only once something breaks: housing, jobs or markets. Almost nobody forecast a calm, gradual easing cycle.

Background (from news coverage): The Fed held at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote in late October. Chair Kevin Warsh left the door open to a quarter-point hike in December. September's minutes showed most officials expected one more hike this year (Particle News).

1. No cuts soon; the next move is up

• Peter Grandich (Kitco NEWS, Oct 16): "I have no doubt in my mind that December we will have another rise in interest rates."
• Charles Fishman (The Geoff Calkins Podcast, Oct 26): "If there wasn't an election in the United States next Tuesday, it's very clear that they would raise interest rates."
• Jeff Rhodes (Morning Drive, Oct 30): "Unless we have lower energy costs, you can't see interest rates going down, that's for sure."
• Chris Whalen (Thoughtful Money, Oct 6) told mortgage lenders "we're not going back to 5%… learn to run your business at seven or eight."
• Some calls already missed. Ian Pollick (Calgary Connects, Oct 20) said "We're going to get another interest rate hike from the Fed in October." The Fed held instead.

2. Cuts will come, but forced by damage

• Danielle DiMartino Booth (Hedgeye, Oct 19): "For the Fed to start cutting rates, it's not gonna be measured, it's gonna be panicked."
• Jay Hatfield (Proactive, Oct 8) said a "deep recession in the housing sector… [is] gonna force the Fed to back off." He also called talk of four more hikes "ridiculous."
• Jim Paulsen (Excess Returns, Oct 16) said slower growth is "going to force the Fed's hand to give up tightening and start easing."
• Barry Knapp (Schwab Network, Nov 5): "There's no way the Fed can continue to hike… They'll just crash the labor market."
• Michael Lebowitz (The Real Investment Show, Oct 29): "Every time they hike rates from here on out, they're making more of a mistake."

3. A few are betting on cuts and easy money

• Terry Sacka (Rigged Against You, Oct 20) argued that $10 trillion of debt needs refinancing, so "rates have to come down and they will start printing tremendous liquidity after this election." He's long gold and silver.
• Paul Kiker (Peak Prosperity): rates "are going to have to come down dramatically."
• Catherine Rampell (The Opinions, Oct 23) warned that a president forcing the Fed to cut would, even in the medium term, "make all of these affordability problems worse."

What this covers: guest and panelist lines flagged as both confident and future-looking, from transcribed episodes published Oct 6 – Nov 5. Lines about other central banks were left out, including Australia's RBA, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan.