Short answer: Most guests over the past month (Oct 6 – Nov 5, 2026) expect a slowdown, but few say for sure that a recession is coming. The economists who talk about it most put the odds near 50/50, and nearly all of them hedge. The guests who sound certain are mostly either making a conditional call ("if X happens, there will be a recession") or not macro forecasters. A small group of guests sound confident that there will be no recession.

I used two searches limited to guests' and panelists' own lines that look ahead: one for every forward-looking line about whether a recession is coming, and one for confident lines only. I also tried counting how sure guests sound across the whole month. That didn't work: only 3 guest lines in the window were tagged to "recession" as a topic, so there's no reliable percentage. What follows is a reading of the roughly 25 matching passages.

The main view: hedged, around 50/50

• David Rosenberg (economist) has been the loudest voice on this, across several shows. On The Julia La Roche Show he pushed back on his own reputation as a doom-monger: "I'm not out there pounding my fist on the table about a recession… I think the recession odds are closer above 50/50," but he's "fully convinced" of "a significant growth turndown." (link) On RiskReversal Pod: "The odds that we have a consumer-led recession next year are over 50/50." (link)
• Andy Constan (Monetary Matters, Nov 4) bets on growth falling short of expectations "over the next three to six months," without calling a recession: "Is it recession island? No, but if you're heading in that direction, your positions look the same." (link)
• Paul Bloxham (Australia, 3AW Mornings and SBS News In Depth): "There's a good chance… more of a chance than the RBA seems to be thinking." He put a 50-50 chance on a recession, while saying it's "not our central case." (link)
• Dave Meyer (Tax Smart Real Estate Investors): "I personally think that we are likely to see a recession." He also warned that 2027–29 could be to commercial real estate "what 2008 was for residential." (link)
• Oren Cass (Trumponomics, Nov 5) looked further out: "We could very well be in a recession in 2028." (link)

The confident calls

• Joel Harty (financial adviser, Nights with Denis Walter, about Australia): "I have no doubt in my mind that we are headed toward a recession." (link)
• Anas Alhajji (Macro Voices): "The recession is going to happen no matter what," once AI spending and fuel subsidies fade. (link)
• Conditional calls:
  • Luke Gromen (Macro Voices): if the credit mania bursts, "you're going to have a recession." (link)
  • Carlos Casanova (Market Watch): oil at about $120 "will definitely precipitate" recessions across developed economies, "but we are not there quite yet." (link)

The skeptics

• Harold Black (State Your Case, NewsTalk): "The economy is going to slow, but I don't believe that it will go into a recession. I really don't believe that." (link)
• Rosenberg on Canada specifically: "not in recession, although a lot will depend on what the U.S. does." (link)

What drives the worry: Guests keep coming back to the same few things: a possible Fed policy mistake, consumer weakness, an AI-spending bubble, oil above $100, and Australia's fifth rate rise. People expect growth to slow, but most stop short of calling an outright recession.

The cards above link to six of the key episodes: Rosenberg, Constan, Bloxham, Gromen, Harty and Black.