Weathered Questions 5.11

Well, let's dive into our first question for the day.

This one's a little broad and something that I think Kai and I will probably be able to talk about for quite some time.

So we'll see how long we go with this one.

But the question is very simple.

Why do forecasts change so quickly sometimes? I think it

depends on what we're trying to forecast.

Yeah.

It depends on the pattern in place.

And I know where this could go.

I know that this could be one of those situations where you're starting off a school day with either a slight chance for a thunderstorm and you get a huge line by the afternoon or it's the opposite.

And there's actually a significant amount.

I remember this and I still get messages sometimes about this, though I don't really have to respond to them.

I usually do because I know the people that are asking, but there's a tremendous amount of interest in weather and athletic events, especially with high schools and especially with football season, because those guys have been practicing for a little bit now and they're getting ready for week one, week zero, I guess, in the scoreboard, but whatever it happens to be, um, Those games are important and they happen in prime time of lines of storms to come through.

And so if there ever are slight chances that turn into something large, that can be a big deal.

I think it just depends on what we're forecasting.

If there's a high pressure system nearby, the chances of that forecast changing are very small.

And let's just say I'm not going to count two or three degrees.

I'm going to say that's a hit.

If it's 75 and it becomes 77, I don't think anyone cares.

I think that's still a

win.

That's still a win.

That's very much still a win.

In fact, the average error of an airport, I think, is a degree or two anyway.

So whatever.