Viewpoint by Russell Investments
Sep 25, 2026 · 6 min · 7 segments
Description: In this Market Week in Review (MWIR), Russell Investments’ Co-Head of Global Fixed Income Riti Samanta examines what the AI investment boom means for bond markets, including its…
Riti SamantaHost
Markets have continued to process the growing hawkishness among central banks following the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate hike on September 16th.

Since July, the two-year Treasury yield has risen from about 4.2% to 4.9%, while the 10-year yield has similarly climbed from 4.4% to 5.1%.

Rather than being isolated to any one part of the yield market, we've seen a meaningful upward shift across the entire yield curve as investors are reassessing both the level and the staying power of elevated policy rates.

And one of the key questions investors have been asking is what is driving this rise in long-term yields? From our perspective at Russell Investments, we see a range of factors at play.

Expectations around tighter monetary policy in general, growing enthusiasm around the AI-related investment spending, and elevated uncertainty on the trajectory of inflation.

One market narrative has centered on whether the massive financing needs associated with AI infrastructure, particularly data centers, computing capacity, and energy investments, are actually competing with treasury issuance and pushing long-term yields higher.

We, however, think that that explanation oversimplifies what is actually happening.

Crowding out is usually described as the government sector borrowing heavily, driving up interest rates and pricing out private investment.

Here, the narrative is the opposite, that private AI-related borrowing is potentially driving up the interest rate for government borrowing.

We do see that real yields have continued to rise, but view that as potentially a result of real economy impacts of AI investing rather than a result of marginal pressure by private sector financing on treasury yields.

Instead, the more important channel is likely the impact that an investment boom has on the broader economy.

AI-related capital expenditures require labor, power generation, equipment, construction materials, and infrastructure.

As investment demand rises faster than available savings, real interest rates may need to move higher to balance the economy.

In other words, AI spending can contribute to higher yields, but not necessarily because investors are choosing corporate bonds over treasuries.

Markets have continued to process the growing hawkishness among central banks following the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate hike on September 16th.

Since July, the two-year Treasury yield has risen from about 4.2% to 4.9%, while the 10-year yield has similarly climbed from 4.4% to 5.1%.

Rather than being isolated to any one part of the yield market, we've seen a meaningful upward shift across the entire yield curve as investors are reassessing both the level and the staying power of elevated policy rates.

And one of the key questions investors have been asking is what is driving this rise in long-term yields? From our perspective at Russell Investments, we see a range of factors at play.

Expectations around tighter monetary policy in general, growing enthusiasm around the AI-related investment spending, and elevated uncertainty on the trajectory of inflation.

One market narrative has centered on whether the massive financing needs associated with AI infrastructure, particularly data centers, computing capacity, and energy investments, are actually competing with treasury issuance and pushing long-term yields higher.

We, however, think that that explanation oversimplifies what is actually happening.

Crowding out is usually described as the government sector borrowing heavily, driving up interest rates and pricing out private investment.

Here, the narrative is the opposite, that private AI-related borrowing is potentially driving up the interest rate for government borrowing.

We do see that real yields have continued to rise, but view that as potentially a result of real economy impacts of AI investing rather than a result of marginal pressure by private sector financing on treasury yields.

Instead, the more important channel is likely the impact that an investment boom has on the broader economy.

AI-related capital expenditures require labor, power generation, equipment, construction materials, and infrastructure.

As investment demand rises faster than available savings, real interest rates may need to move higher to balance the economy.

In other words, AI spending can contribute to higher yields, but not necessarily because investors are choosing corporate bonds over treasuries.
The rest of this transcript — segmented and speaker-labeled, so you land on the exact moment something was said
Search every transcript — by keyword, by phrase, or by meaning, across every show Radar indexes
Trends — what is surging across podcasts, measured against its own baseline
Alerts — when a name you follow appears in a newly indexed episode
No account is needed to search Radar.