Oct 9, 2026 · 3 min · 3 segments
Leslie breaks down why this year was “a quarter to remember”: why Treasury yields hit 2002 highs, what’s driving interest-rate volatility, and where she sees value in fixed income today. For more…
Leslie FalconioGuest
At the end of June, 10-year yields hovered around a 4.37%, only to find themselves near a 5.35% by the end of September.
Both the 10 and 30-year Treasury yields are at levels that we haven't seen since 2002.
While most of the movement has to do with the recalibration of growth, consumer spending, and the fact that GDP is expected to be strong again in the third quarter, it still has put a weight on interest rates.
With the Fed projected to increase the Fed funds rate by about 75 to 100 basis points over the next year, we find this view a little bit hawkish.
While we continue to think growth will remain above trend and we look for inflation to start to decline in 2027, we feel the Fed is the market's pricing in a bit of a hawkish view.
At the end of June, 10-year yields hovered around a 4.37%, only to find themselves near a 5.35% by the end of September.
Both the 10 and 30-year Treasury yields are at levels that we haven't seen since 2002.
While most of the movement has to do with the recalibration of growth, consumer spending, and the fact that GDP is expected to be strong again in the third quarter, it still has put a weight on interest rates.
With the Fed projected to increase the Fed funds rate by about 75 to 100 basis points over the next year, we find this view a little bit hawkish.
While we continue to think growth will remain above trend and we look for inflation to start to decline in 2027, we feel the Fed is the market's pricing in a bit of a hawkish view.
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