THE RE-WRAP: It All Hinges On This
Oct 21, 2026 · 11 min · 9 segments
**THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE *(from Thursday's Mike Hosking Breakfast)*** Or Not/How MMP Works/Old Head-In-the-Sand Hipkins Strikes Again/The Aussie Super Example See…
Oct 21, 2026 · 11 min · 9 segments
**THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE *(from Thursday's Mike Hosking Breakfast)*** Or Not/How MMP Works/Old Head-In-the-Sand Hipkins Strikes Again/The Aussie Super Example See…
they getting on Now, we have a poll in all seven now, all seven of the Maori seats, which gives us a chance, I think, to at least make some sort of observation.
It is more than fair to suggest these polls are even ropier than the major polls, which have been all over the place, of course, at the best of times.
They are smaller.
They've got greater margins of error and involve the group at first blush.
Don't automatically represent the demography of the area poll.
It's got a whoever answered the phone sort of vibe about it.
Be that as it may, they give us really the only insight into what might happen.
And what might happen is important.
because you could see, one, the exit of a party from Parliament entirely, two, an overhang that shapes the next government, or three, a party that once dominated the Maori landscape reduced through their own implosion to an insignificant rump.
Seven polls, we seem to have Labour well ahead in the couple, the Maori Party well ahead in the couple.
and three too close to call.
In one of the too close to calls, a green leads.
Could be history.
The most obvious outworking is if this doesn't go well for the Maori Party, there may be no real overhang at all.
For example, if they only win two seats and get about 2% of the party vote, there will be no overhang, as opposed to getting, say, 2% of the party vote and winning five seats.
One, winning seats that would make no difference to their overall result, given the party vote will drive the final numbers.
And two, in doing so, wrecking the prospects of a fellow coalition partner.
And I suppose you could also argue, three, damaging their reputation as a once proud dominator of the Maori seats.
Same recipe applies to the Greens, of course.
If they win one, I mean, good on them, it's history, but it would make no difference in the House.
So really the only net gain recipient in any of this... is the Maori Party who have put it all on the line by campaigning for the seat alone.
If it goes badly, and two out of seven would be bad, they of course have no one to blame but themselves.
They imploded through hubris.
At that point, if anyone wants to learn, the collapse of various versions of a Maori Party would then be getting to be quite the story.
they getting on Now, we have a poll in all seven now, all seven of the Maori seats, which gives us a chance, I think, to at least make some sort of observation.
It is more than fair to suggest these polls are even ropier than the major polls, which have been all over the place, of course, at the best of times.
They are smaller.
They've got greater margins of error and involve the group at first blush.
Don't automatically represent the demography of the area poll.
It's got a whoever answered the phone sort of vibe about it.
Be that as it may, they give us really the only insight into what might happen.
And what might happen is important.
because you could see, one, the exit of a party from Parliament entirely, two, an overhang that shapes the next government, or three, a party that once dominated the Maori landscape reduced through their own implosion to an insignificant rump.
Seven polls, we seem to have Labour well ahead in the couple, the Maori Party well ahead in the couple.
and three too close to call.
In one of the too close to calls, a green leads.
Could be history.
The most obvious outworking is if this doesn't go well for the Maori Party, there may be no real overhang at all.
For example, if they only win two seats and get about 2% of the party vote, there will be no overhang, as opposed to getting, say, 2% of the party vote and winning five seats.
One, winning seats that would make no difference to their overall result, given the party vote will drive the final numbers.
And two, in doing so, wrecking the prospects of a fellow coalition partner.
And I suppose you could also argue, three, damaging their reputation as a once proud dominator of the Maori seats.
Same recipe applies to the Greens, of course.
If they win one, I mean, good on them, it's history, but it would make no difference in the House.
So really the only net gain recipient in any of this... is the Maori Party who have put it all on the line by campaigning for the seat alone.
If it goes badly, and two out of seven would be bad, they of course have no one to blame but themselves.
They imploded through hubris.
At that point, if anyone wants to learn, the collapse of various versions of a Maori Party would then be getting to be quite the story.
The rest of this transcript — segmented and speaker-labeled, so you land on the exact moment something was said
Search every transcript — by keyword, by phrase, or by meaning, across every show Radar indexes
Trends — what is surging across podcasts, measured against its own baseline
Alerts — when a name you follow appears in a newly indexed episode
No account is needed to search Radar.