Is Russia Really Preparing to Attack NATO?

So is Russia really plotting an attack against NATO right now? I feel like it's every year now, maybe multiple times a year, that I am making largely this same video about this same topic, but with a fresh set of data.

And yet, despite the fact that we've talked about this many different times, it becomes more and more obvious to me each time that it's more and more necessary each time that we keep having this discussion.

Every couple of months, there seems to be some new, supposedly verified evidence that a Russian attack is imminent.

And the response patterns are always identical.

Everyone gets scared.

The news publishes a flurry of articles.

The public gets angry.

and then the various European governments do absolutely nothing in response.

But luckily for them, the Russian attack also never comes.

Now, patterns in and of themselves are not predictive of the future, but they are definitely worth paying attention to, because they usually inform us of the most likely expected outcomes.

people should take the Russian threat seriously, and they should prepare their countries for the possibility of a war with Russia, especially for the simple reason that if they don't, that then might be the very thing that actually entices a real Russian attack.

Russia, of course, already invaded Ukraine, and what other evidence do you really need that this is something that should be taken seriously? But it also helps to remind people of the track record here, a track record that most people just simply are not aware of, And that's due to no fault of their own.

They're just too busy.

And that's why Russia keeps re-running this same narrative every year, over and over again.

I've been doing this on YouTube long enough to remember a lot of the major highlight events.

There was, of course, that time when Russia began building bases in its border regions near Finland and Estonia, a story that has popped up several times in several different formats, seemingly every year since Russia's invasion between 2022 and 2026.

It was said to be similar to what Russia did before they started their troop buildup to invade Ukraine.

The bases were often even connected to a specific new military unit, one that Russia was creating in response to Finland joining NATO.

And the new bases were said to have a massive, truly disturbing potential capacity.

Sometimes it was said they could house 50,000 Russian soldiers, sometimes up to 115,000, enough to support a small initial invasion force that could then be bolstered after an initial attack.

Russia was apparently laying the groundwork to invade a NATO country, maybe imminently.

But what actually ended up happening was something much different.

The bases were only built up to a very small percentage of their projected potential.

And the theoretical capacity of tens of thousands to even over 100,000 Russian soldiers ended up being merely single-digit thousands.

Russian soldiers appeared to rotate in and out for training before the bases were largely emptied and abandoned, and their resources were dedicated towards Ukraine, not towards an attack on NATO.