Oct 18, 2026 · 1 hr 37 min · 14 segments
Matt and Producer Dan tackle the glaring inconsistencies between the reactions to Shane Gillis and Sydney Sweeney, the fast-approaching Midterm 2026 endgame (feat. guest Dan Cirucci), and why you need…
Matt RooneyHostDan CirucciGuestDaniel ValdezHost
So I am going to tell you... as we enter the final weeks of election 2026, stop trusting the polls.
And, you know, before somebody out there clips that for social media and accuses me of being anti-science, anti-math, or anti-whatever the word of the week is, I want you to hear me out.
And by the way, this also has nothing to do with the fact that polling generally shows Republicans heading towards a rough night because we know that polling errors have gone both ways in recent cycles.
They did not, the polling, most of the polls accurately predict the strong Trump victory, the electoral landslide that was coming.
And then last year in 2025, they completely whiffed in New Jersey, much to my chagrin, showed a much closer race than we ultimately ended up having.
since World War II that the party of the incumbent president has gained in a midterm cycle.
We have developed a very strange relationship with public polling in this country.
We treat it like a crystal ball, like scripture, like Moses came down from Mount Sinai carrying three tablets and the third one had Quinnipiac or New York Times Sienna.
printed on it um every morning somebody releases a new poll you can get addicted to them i mean there's been cycles where being the political junkie that i am i was refreshing the real clear politics polling average over and over again and you you get into it you know trump's up three republicans are collapsing democrats are surging the senate's slipping away the house is back in play And then 12 hours later, you get some poll out of left field that tells you something the exact opposite.
And then we dig deep into polls, right? Like, ooh, you know, this might look like a good poll for Democrats, but look how they're doing with Hispanics.
Or, hmm, you know, Republicans are technically ahead in that one, but the Indies are treading in the other direction.
So I am going to tell you... as we enter the final weeks of election 2026, stop trusting the polls.
And, you know, before somebody out there clips that for social media and accuses me of being anti-science, anti-math, or anti-whatever the word of the week is, I want you to hear me out.
And by the way, this also has nothing to do with the fact that polling generally shows Republicans heading towards a rough night because we know that polling errors have gone both ways in recent cycles.
They did not, the polling, most of the polls accurately predict the strong Trump victory, the electoral landslide that was coming.
And then last year in 2025, they completely whiffed in New Jersey, much to my chagrin, showed a much closer race than we ultimately ended up having.
since World War II that the party of the incumbent president has gained in a midterm cycle.
We have developed a very strange relationship with public polling in this country.
We treat it like a crystal ball, like scripture, like Moses came down from Mount Sinai carrying three tablets and the third one had Quinnipiac or New York Times Sienna.
printed on it um every morning somebody releases a new poll you can get addicted to them i mean there's been cycles where being the political junkie that i am i was refreshing the real clear politics polling average over and over again and you you get into it you know trump's up three republicans are collapsing democrats are surging the senate's slipping away the house is back in play And then 12 hours later, you get some poll out of left field that tells you something the exact opposite.
And then we dig deep into polls, right? Like, ooh, you know, this might look like a good poll for Democrats, but look how they're doing with Hispanics.
Or, hmm, you know, Republicans are technically ahead in that one, but the Indies are treading in the other direction.
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