Democratic Pollster Ben Lazarus Breaks Down the 2026 Midterms With Some Reality-Based Hopium

I

mean, I would argue we need more than just 51 seats because we have a problem.

So, you know, it has to do.

We

do.

We need that guy.

Listen, I want to I want to ask you before we get into all these individual races and people are asking excellent questions and comments on Substack, including where people just need that extra push to get over the finish line.

But before we get to that, I want to.

because I hear this all the time and people are like, how hard is it to pull? Like, come on.

Yeah.

You just ask 600 people, you get a cross section of people and you ask them questions and like, why do pollsters get it wrong? Yeah.

So often.

And so, you know, to me, Polling is like, and I've done virtually every job on a campaign you could possibly do except polling.

But I've sat through a lot of poll groups and I've sat through and I've certainly read a lot of polls.

And I would say there is no harder job on any campaign, not one, than being a pollster because it is both a science and an art.

And you have to make assumptions.

And the assumptions are typically on pre-existing issues.

Events, right? Like what happened two years ago or four years ago in a similar state.

And the reality is in the age of Trump, it is almost impossible that passes predicate, right? I mean, can you talk about that? Because I think people just don't understand how absolutely excruciatingly hard your job is and the job of every other pollster out there.

It is hard.

And I also like really try and center people in like what I do versus like what the, you know, Nate Cohn in the New York Times is trying to do, which is like what I'm like, my job fundamentally is to help advise a campaign and help them pick a path through, through to victory.

And so like what I typically say is like, I'm not a soothsayer.

Like I measure the present.

I don't predict the future.

And I measure the present as best as I can using the tools at my disposal.