Episode 18 - The Coal Trader Podcast: Global Supply Squeezes & The Structural Setup

Well, on that note, met is actually pretty flat on the week.

I think it's down, hmm, I wanna say about 1 to 2% across the curve.

Uh, China's starting to look a little bit weaker.

Prices there are down kinda between 5 to 6% at the front end, uh, a little bit more later on.

But that's kinda typical of this part of the year.

But, uh, yeah, I mean, the big story kind of has been thermal coal.

Prices were down today, but just looking through here, Newcastle up, uh, roughly 1% over the curve over the past week.

Uh, API2 up 9% over the week on the prompt month, uh, for next month futures.

Uh, the rest of the curve up about 1 to 2%.

Uh, Richards Bay, uh, also up about 1 or 2% there.

Uh, and Indonesia kinda flat.

It's, um, [smacks lips] Hormuz is still, uh, still really affecting everything.

So, you know, as we head into summer, I figure those numbers are gonna start to go up, don't you?

Yeah, I think so.

You know, I think what we're seeing in the thermal coal markets is kinda like what we're seeing with the Strait of Hormuz, is that the rubber is kinda meeting the road.

And you're seeing increased coal burns, the same way you are ...

You're actually seeing inventories draw down significantly and very quickly in the oil market.

So it's really hitting physical flows.

So, so this, this thermal pricing is underpinned by, you know, good, solid physical moves.

Yeah.

And, uh, the equities that carry thermal coal, particularly those down under, uh, had a pretty good week.

Just looking at, uh, you know, Yancoal's down, uh, you know, still due to acquisition, uh, related risk.

But Whitehaven's up 2% over the past week, and Newho up 5%.

So it's, uh, the, the rise in, in prices is carrying through a little bit, it seems like.

Yeah.