Bear Brief, 19 Aug 2026

Tensions are expanding in Asia.

Putin recently became the first sitting Russian president to ever set foot on the Kurils, strategically important islands with Russian military infrastructure.

Well, Tokyo found that to be absolutely unacceptable, according to Prime Minister Takaichi, as Moscow had been repeatedly asked to ensure the president does not visit those inherently Japanese islands.

The dispute over these particular islands has prevented the two nations from signing a peace treaty since the end of World War Dos.

What could possibly go wrong here? Now, we're, we're gonna talk a little bit about Russia, China, China, uh, and, uh, Japan, and the Estados Unidos today, just a little bit.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War figure the trip was partly payback for Japan's new defense white paper, which named Russia as a threat and also read, quote, "Russia is continuing active military activities in the northern territories, which are inherent territories of Japan under a legal occupation," end quote.

Hmm.

War is a game of resources, especially in contested environments.

Oh my gosh, there's islands that people in Eastern Asia all of a sudden view as contested.

No, they've been contested since World War II.

Um, but maybe certain land masses of strategic importance are going to cause nation A and nation B to, uh, get mad at each other.

Where have I seen this before? How interesting.

The day after Putin's visit, four Russian missile corvettes cruised within a pointed unnecessarily close twenty-five miles of Hokkaido, Japanese northern big island.

Russian Sec-Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev has warned Japan of monstrous consequences for pressing the claim.

Now, Dmitry Medvedev does that.

He just runs his mouth like it's his damn job, which perhaps it is.

Since early July, Northern Korea state media-- North Korean state media has fired off a dozen-plus attacks on Tokyo's military buildup, its new Tomahawk missiles, rising defense budgets, and the aforementioned white paper.

Kim Yo Jong even floated additional military options if Japan keeps flexing.

But it's not really about Japan per se, as one Korean university professor, Park Hwanggong, pointed out.

Quote, "The biggest objective is to create a US of South Korea, Japan versus North Korea, China, Russia framework to perhaps cement its escape from isolation and justify its nuclear arsenal." Now, see, Russia is making moves, which is interesting.

They don't have that many moves that they can make.

Um, the GDP of Italy is greater than the GDP of Russia, of Italy, okay? And they've been involved in a special military operation since February twenty-fourth, twenty twenty-two.

They also were supposed to be, according to the Mar-a-Lago Accords, which are not yet fully in effect and/or fleshed out, clearly, sitting on the sidelines in this US versus China tit for tat that we've got going on right now.

Remember about a week ago, we read an assessment that said the only thing that's keeping us from being able to declare officially this is World War III is that China has not gone widespread kinetic yet.

Okay.